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Nikki Stern

Nikki Stern
Location
Princeton (for now), New Jersey, USA
Birthday
April 10
Title
What do you have in mind?
Company
I'd love some
Bio
writer, editor and first-time book author (Because I Say So: The Dangerous Appeal of Moral Authority comes out next spring); always up for a little discourse

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OCTOBER 15, 2009 2:40PM

Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Rate: 12 Flag

our Afghanistan policy can't possibly be simple 

According to the weekly news index from Pew Research, Afghanistan has become the focus of both old and new media – at least until some cute video of a pet or a baby starts circulating or some reality show contestant starts complaining, at which point new media will take a sharp detour. I’ve been hesitant to blog about international affairs recently. So many people do it so much better (see Steve Clemons' Washington Note) and what can I add? Or perhaps I should say: where’s the challenge? How hard is it to criticize a policy in flux? Like shooting fish in a barrel – one of my least favorite images, by the way, as it manages to encompass both cruelty and an excessive use of firepower to prove a point.

Still, I’m going to toss in my two cents, though I risk pointing out the obvious, over-simplifying the situation, and boring my readers to tears. We all need to be at least superficially up to speed before we can determine, not only what we want our country to do in Afghanistan, but also why we always seem to end up in these positions.

QUICK AND SIMPLE HISTORY UPDATE

80sAfghanistan is a country with a complex history. Landlocked, the area has been at the crossroads of competing eastern and western, religious and secular empires for centuries. For the last thirty years, it has been in a continuous state of civil war.  In the late seventies, the secular government in Afghanistan was also viewed as pro-Soviet.  The U.S. Cold War strategy at the time was to covertly support the “other” side in order to counter Soviet influence in the Persian gulf. In the case of Afghanistan, our support went to a loose but ideologically conservative coalition of religious leaders and tribal leaders – the mujahideen. The Soviets then countered with an invasion to shore up their friends in the government, the United States began to arm the anti-communist factions (which also received aid from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) and a horrible civil was broke out in which between half a million and two million Afghan citizens were killed. You can check any one of dozens of sites on Afghan history (even Wikipedia ) or you can watch the  enjoyable “Charlie Wilson’s War”  starring Tom Hanks, Philip Hoffman Seymour and Julia Roberts. I leave it to you. 

images 

 Although the United States may have assumed an ideological victory (as Charlie Wilson never did), it became clear, with the fall of the Soviet Union, that we might have backed the wrong horse. The Taliban wreaked havoc on the citizenry in its zeal to bring everyone in line with the supposed dictates of a particular brand of fundamentalism, resulting in not only a mass exodus of intellectuals but also a repressive regime that removed freedoms, violates human rights and reduced women to second-class citizens.

OUR POST 9/11 WAR

301px-us_army_afghanistan_2006 The United States’ activities in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks were called “Operation Enduring Freedom” a military campaign to destroy presumed Al Qaeda terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. The U.S. also sought to overthrow the Taliban government because they were presumably harboring Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda members, although documents show that Washington was giving the Northern Alliance information and logistics support as part of concerted action with India, Iran, and Russia – that would be our current adversary and our former one. The Taliban was ousted, the secular leader Hamid Karzai was made the transitional chairman of the newly installed government, then became president in 2004.

225px-hamid_karzai_in_february_2009

AND NOW…

In a few words: Taliban resurgence, particularly in the countryside, an spike in illegal drug activity, corruption charges against the present government currently enjoying U.S. largesse, voting fraud and human rights violations still occurring and the Afghan people – and our foreign policy – once again caught between a rock and a hard place. The Afghan government is neither reliable nor trusted by the people. The extent of our ability to force change appears limited. Even Joe Biden is dismayed. What we have is money to withhold and manpower to withdraw. We can just say no, or as Tom Friedman suggested in his NY Times op-ed piece, tell the government to shape up or we ship out. And do it.

We might also consider asking (or demanding or forcing) our own strategic thinkers to get to work redefining their own terminology with respect to our policy in Afghanistan and indeed around the world. What does it mean to choose sides? What does a victory look like? How do we propose to battle an ideology? What do we think will make the United States safe, what with poorly protected facilities, ill-defined immigration policies, poor follow-up for visas and other home protection issues that need attention? Can we say we’ve seriously considered a wholesale revamping of our foreign policy and military approaches to make those approaches at once more robust and more practical?

Or shall we continue as always, with an either/or, add more, subtract more, we won/we lost mentality? Shall we continue to send our troops into harm’s way while our leaders dither about what a sustainable foreign policy in the twenty-first century looks like and the rest of us dither about whatever it's easiest to absorb?

That seems almost too easy – like shooting fish in a barrel.

fish

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Comments

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A brief and frustrating look at U.S. involvement in Afghanistan...
Thoughtful analysis, Nikki. Thanks for this.
The Canadian Forces, as you probably know, have had a reinforced brigade in Kandahar province since the beginning, taking casualties at a higher per capita rate than anyone either in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Before an intellectually stunted Canadian government decided -- literally on a couple of hours notice -- to send troops there as part of the NATO commitment, the military staff brains trust had worked out the two worst places in the world to wage a war: the Caucasus ... and Afghanistan.

No one, from Alexander down, has succeeded in pacifying or otherwise "winning" in Afghanistan. The original intent of the invasion was to capture or otherwise deal with bin Laden, an effort that soon sidestepped into the lunacy that was the Iraq incursion.

To say I don't get the logic is an understatement.

Rated -- for a clear analysis of the problems.
I love when I learn more --and with more cogency-- from my OS colleagues. Thanks for this fascinating history and geopolitical lesson, Nikki.
We need to get out of there. Let the Afghans work it out among themselves, and as they do so, we must remain vigilant to prevent their internal troubles from being focused once again on us.

Even if the Taliban, or some new version of it wins the day, we should be willing to have diplomatic and economic relations with them unless they once again engage, or allow others to engage, in hostilities against our country. I don't think we can continue to build our version of an acceptable society in that country.
I think taking some time to anwer the very questins you pose is exactly what the administration is doing. I don't know what the solution is but it involves getting the hell out of there as quickly as possible, it think.

At least, I hope that's what the administration is doing.
Al Qaeda's not in Afghanistan any more, and the Karzai government is irredeemably corrupt and unrepresentative, what exactly is the mission now? Why are we taking sides with an unpopular government in a civil war?

It's Vietnam all over again, we lost our chance to direct the country's energy to creating a more humane society under LBJ, and it looks like Obama's gonna throw away his chance too, while the big military contractors get fatter, the country digs deeper in to bankruptcy, and the best of our young come home broken or in body bags
Cogent responses all. The real dilemma for me is my involvement with an organization supporting Afghan women. I don't think boots on the ground changes a centuries-old culture (it goes into hiding, perhaps but that's all) but there are days I'd like to "borrow" a few troops to provide escorts for the girls trying to make their way to and from school.
Question is: Will Afghanistan be Obama's Vietnam? That scares me. LBJ had a terrific record on civil rights and other important legistlation, but he was done in by Nam.
R
It's so rare to have a thinking person's analysis of the situation. Maybe that is what is delaying those fabulous actions that we love so much: thoughtful rethinking of the situation.
this just in. rumor from british military that Obama is going to go for something like a 40K troop increase.
you're such a wonderful writer. thank you for this. it's disheartening, to say the least to know the history of this thing. as boanergis said, no one has ever conquered this fierce country. and i can't stand that they aer going to send in more troops. lvoe lvoe love and gratitude.
The thing with Afghanistan is, what exactly needs to happen before "we" decide that we've "won" and can get the fuck out of there? How is success defined there? Everyone should wave US flags? No more poppy fields? Women voting? Girls attending school? Public beheadings for adultery are ended? What are the criteria?

Let's face it, the Afghan people are not ever going to embrace us, and they likely hate us even more because all of their women want to jump ship and come to America.

The Iraq is bad too, obviously, and perhaps it's my imagination but I sense a change there, people are gathering themselves. We need to be pulling out of there but we must maintain a presence so that no radical fundamentalists can take hold during this vulnerable time.

Both of these wars have accomplished little of anything, but they have caused untold heartbreak and suffering on all sides. For naught.
There are a couple of insightful letters in today's NY Times that emphasize the futility of seeking a military win. It's also worth remembering this is a very poor country; the Taliban's ideological "successes" have often been accompanied by tangible goods and services, which the rpesent government, unfortunately, seems inclined to sell - hence the robust drug trade.
(reaching for coffee) that's "present" government
U.S. Interest, lie in the ground, and potential pipeline... Don't let rhetoric cloud the real issue here... "We the people" want out of the world police role... Capitalist have eyes on the potential profit... See a little twist from the Nobel Committee now my dear? Rated...
You should blog about international affairs more often. This is excellent -- and complex. I'm not sure there's a solution to Afghanistan. It may be a lose-lose situation. I admire Thomas Friedman, who appreciates the complexity of the situation. I sympathize with Obama. What an awful position to be in. Anyone who sees this in black and white is deluding himself. Great post!
Patrick: the original excursion into Iraq was caled "Operation Iraqi Liberation" (OIL - for you sleepy-headed types). Almost imediately after the White House released a press announcement in 2002, they were scrambling to take it back and replace it with "Operation Iraqi Freedom"

Steve: I really appreciate that vote of confidence. I sometimes think that as more informed heads are blogging about things like international affairs, I ought to hold back. But when I find myself reading a piece and yelling: "You've GOT to be f-ing kidding!" - well, out come the magic typing fingers :-)
aargh - apologies for the typo above
Thanks for this -- I posted on the "news" today that NATO defense ministers are backing McChrystal's escalation cries. The whole thing seems like a set up for a fall -- a publicizing of "go big or go home" so the administration can choose some middle ground; but it's the nature of the "choice" that's set up that is, as you point out, always the same.