First, though, an appreciation. Four weeks ago, everybody was lamenting the absence of a compelling pennant race, except in the NL West, where the San Francisco Giants were jockeying with Arizona Diamondbacks and, mildly, in the AL West, where the Wherever-They’re-From Angels had a ghost of a chance to catch the Texas Rangers. Then the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals began to surge, the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves sagged, and suddenly there was not just a wild-card race but, on the last day of the season, a chance for two wild-card ties forcing sudden-death playoff games.  

That didn’t happen, of course, because the Cardinals cruised past the Triple-A team playing as the Houston Astros while the Philadelphia Phillies—playing the right way (unlike a certain hot-dog shortstop, whose idea of how to win a batting title is to bunt for a base hit and then leave the game)—took the Braves to the 13th inning before crushing their hopes 4-3 and then, just three minutes apart, the Red Sox completed their greatest collapse since 1978 and lost—after leading by a run in the ninth with their All-Star closer on the mound—to the woeful Baltimore Orioles followed by the Rays capping their comeback (against Yankees’ minor leaguers—do New York teams have no respect for the game?) from a 7-0 deficit by winning in the 12th inning on Evan Longoria’s second homerun of the game.  

Kudos to the Cards and Rays for having the kick at the end of the marathon. Now begin the three shorter, more pressure-packed events of the annual quadrathlon: the best-of-five division series, the best-of-seven league championship series, and the best-of-seven World Series. Welcome to October baseball, the single best thing about fall. 

Football? Pffffffft, as Candace would say.  

American League

Detroit Tigers–New York Yankees

Two hard-hitting teams with powerful lineups and excellent bullpens.  Two super aces in the Tigers’ Justin Verlander and the Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia. The questions are: can the Yankees get a good start out of rookie Iván Nova, or will C.C. have to start three of the five games for them to win the series; can the Tigers get two wins out of Verlander (or, better for them, take the series with him only needing to pitch in Game 1); if it goes to Game 5, who will Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi trust on the mound; can either team crack the opponents’ ace closers, the Yanks’ ageless Mariano Rivera (Tigers’ batting average against him: .178) and the Tigers’ perfect (49 saves in 49 chances) Jose Valverde (Yanks’ batting average against him: .196); and can I stop myself from calling Tigers’ shortstop Jhonny Perralta Ja-honny, as my brother did when JP played for Cleveland? The only certainty is that the answer to the last question is no. The series starts tonight with the Verlander-Sabathia matchup, but, though both pitchers are excellent, don’t be surprised by a lot of baserunners: each team hits the opposing ace well.

Will the Yankees’ experience trump the Tigers’ two-month-long surge? Yes, three games to one; I don’t know how. For you Michiganders and Michigeese, sorry, and Go Lions.

Tampa Bay Rays–Texas Rangers

The Rays, in the postseason for the third time in five years on the basis of their miracle finish, faces Texas for the second year in a row. Texas eliminated the Rays last year and reached the World Series—but they had Cliff Lee then. (Of course, they didn’t have Adrian Beltre’s .296 average and 32 homeruns.) The Rays have good pitching and poor hitting; the Rangers have boppers up and down the lineup with decent pitching. Rays’ manager Joe Maddon (the AL Tony LaRussa—media darling) is starting Matt Moore in Game 1 even though rookie Moore has pitched fewer than 10 innings. The Rangers counter with ace C.J. Wilson (doesn’t anyone have names anymore?). The Rays’ pitchers fared pretty well against the Rangers, and their staff was much better than average against the Rays’ relatively weak lineup. On the other hand, the Rangers’ hitters could handle the Rays’ pitchers.

Will Texas best the Rays again? Yes, but it won’t take five games like last year.   

ALCS

Rangers-Yankees

When the season began, I didn’t think the Yankees would have the starting pitching to make it through the postseason. Still don’t. Rangers in six. 

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks–Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona has strong pitching, led by Cy Young contender Ian Kennedy and a good, young lineup. The Brewers have decent pitching (sorry about the Greinke thing, J.D.) and a very, very strong lineup led by two Most Valuable Player candidates, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Plus, they’re back in the playoffs for the first time since 2008 with something to prove and probably their last chance to win with this cast, as free-agent-to-be Fielder will undoubtedly sign elsewhere in the offseason.

The young, inexperienced Diamondbacks can’t shut down the potent Brewers’ offense. Milwaukee in five. 

St. Louis Cardinals–Philadelphia Phillies

The NL’s best offense against its best pitching staff. The NL’s hottest team against the team that stumbled in the penultimate week of the season, losing eight straight—including two to the Cardinals—after clinching. Tony LaRussa, the NL’s most brilliant managerial mind (everyone says) against Charlie Manuel, a perceived West Virginia yokel who talks funny but makes his players love him and wins (and once again, unaccountably, gets no Manager of the Year consideration even though he had five of eight position players and two of five starting pitchers on the disabled list during the year and started his ostensible starting lineup precisely 10 of the season’s 162 games). Albert Pujols’ possible swan song in St. Louis. Jimmy Rollins’s, Roy Oswalt’s, Raúl Ibañez’s, and Ryan Madson’s possible last appearances in Philly. The Cardinals’ spotty bullpen (24 blown saves over the season) against the Phils’ questionable one, with a solid closer in Madson but uncertainty in the rebuilt Brad Lidge (who may have Pujols ghosts) and the young Antonio Bastardo (best pirate name ever) and Michael Stutes, who were shaky in September. Both pitching staffs handled the other teams’ lineups pretty well. The Phils have to—have to—win the first two games at home because if they lose to Cards’ ace Chris Carpenter in Game 3 and then face elimination in Game 4 against lefty Jaime Garcia, who held them to a .189 batting average, they’re in trouble. (Credit there to LaRussa for setting up his rotation thus.)

The Phils, with their stellar rotation, were built for the marathon. They were also built for the last three legs of the event, though. This may be the last chance this unit has to win together. Doc Halladay, Cliff Lee, Oswalt, and Ibañez all want their first World Series rings. They’re not going out in the first round. Phils in four—because Garcia has to leave the game for a pinch hitter, and they scorch the bullpen. 

NLCSBrewers-Phillies

Or the second. Phils in five or six. 

World Series

Talk to you in a couple of week about this one.  

Notes:

Full disclosure: In 2009, I predicted a Phils’ return to the World Series and a victory over the Yankees. In 2010, I predicted a redemptive Phils’ World Series win over the Yankees. So you can see just how prescient I am.  

Fuller disclosure: The little I know about the Phils’ NL rivals towers over the concavity of the mound that is my knowledge of the AL contenders, beyond a few obvious facts. In other words, don’t take anything you read here to your bookie, except to share a laugh.  

Words © 2011 AtHome Pilgrim.

All Rights Reserved.