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Gabby Abby

Gabby Abby
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Florida, USA
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December 31

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JANUARY 2, 2011 11:55AM

Rise and Fall

Rate: 35 Flag

My outlook for 2011 has taken on bulwark characteristics as I gird up to wade through another annual calendar.  The same thought just keeps rolling across my mind, like the CNBC crawl.

Embrace what is ahead, and adjust your sights accordingly.

Economically, the last two generations which includes myself and my children, have fallen behind. Our economic machinery has stalled, our government is in trouble, and our world power status is declining as other countries are on the economic rise. 

As a nation, we never had a birthright to success, although I don't think most of us believed that, but whatever upward spiral we were on is now unwinding, in complete unity with the Laws of Nature and Gravity - what goes up, comes down. 

We are see-sawing on the age old dilemma of rise and fall,  teetering back and forth on the shifting growth of economic productivity, and the exponential cost of armament and war.  Military strength and economic strength are always inverse, as one either focuses on military might, draining economic strength, or we free up resources to be used for other 'goods' which increase national prosperity. It's an eternally delicate balance, and one we have been uniquely privileged to watch closely in the past 100 years as Russia, Britain, the US, Japan, and China have alternately built up, and dismantled, arms and economies in our collective lifetime histories over the past century.

Power balances are altering and shifting before our eyes, in accordance with the changing military and economic policies of nations.  To paraphrase Bismarck, all world powers are "traveling on the stream of Time, which they can neither create or direct, but upon which they can steer with more, or less, skill and experience", and the outcome depends largely on the responses of governments as the international scene emerges and shifts, kaleidoscope style.

In a recent interview, Paul Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, expressed his belief that our most urgent need is to determine what is beyond our reach, and to deal with those things that we still have some ability to influence, the things we have the power to change.  Reversible problems include education, what we do with our national budget and with our technology. The rest, the irreversible stuff, leave it behind.

Simplistically speaking, Reinhold Niebur was right. Things will start looking better if we accept the things we can not change now, and have the collective intelligence to change the things we still can control, and figure out what the hell is the difference. 

Otherwise, we're f*cked.

___________________

To those who take away 'abandon hope, all ye who enter here' from this post, read through the comments before making this assumption.  It just ain't so, Spanky.  Hopey New Year!

 

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I like to look on the bright side of things but I think your last sentence says it all sad to say..:(
rated with hugs
I was caught in a moment of reverie as I transferred over dates into a new calendar today. Yes, some of us still keep a handwritten datebook, how silly is that? Kennedy has done an incredible job with this book, but I recommend the Cliff Notes because he's so thorough in his support of his analysis, it takes awhile to get to the heart of the matter. Good stuff!
Linda! no one reads THAT fast.
the optimist that i am spins a slightly different ending than you do, abby, but i agree that we need to reprioritize what the country spends its money and effort on. i see some glimmers of hope in the passage of the START treaty and other recent events for a reduction in spending on the defense budget.
Yes indeed, but I am going to be playing as my ship goes down. What else is left! Great post.
Best Wishes,
Blittie
Embrace what is ahead and adjust your sights accordingly. ...... I like that and will embrace it this year. Thanks, Gabby. R
Yep, we be screwed!!!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Rated!!!
I think we are at a strange horizon. Never before have so many been so connected and so aware of what is possible, and what is missing. We humans always go through great cycles of growth, collapse, expansion, death. Whether or not we are the authors of some of the global warming, we know it is coming and somehow we all expect to survive. Maybe not others, but ourselves. Technology is great but cannot exceed the laws of nature. We must adapt or fail.
I watched a pbs show on anglo saxon treasure, and they had jewelry that jewelers today could hardly imagine making without lasers. Where did that knowledge come from? Where did it go? Who were those people, there or any other lost civilization? Oh, we'll be there too someday.
F*ucked is right I think. I've never seen a time like this. I've been around over half a century and I have never seen the greedy so greedy or the needy so needy!
I'm not optimistic, Abby. Not necessarily pessimistic, but I am worried whether we can get our sh*t together again.
I'll be the first to admit mental laziness. I want to care more than I've been able to until recent events have forced me into the corner and demanded 'CARE, DAMN IT'. Maybe I am suffering from a burst of New Years energy, but reading and listening a bit more to those who have made a studied appraisal of our current position on the teeter-totter is my best effort in terms of caring right now. I can't care about something I don't understand. I'm trying to get my head around some right thinking. What's that old saw, 'If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything', right?
Don't think I'm anything like a Polyanna, but I keep seeing the great pendulum swinging back and forth. I still have hope.
I doubt, seriously, that it's a matter of optimism or pessimism, but rather making do with what you've been dealt - one person at a time. Lemonaid from lemons is the optimists response to crisis, and cutting the line to float or ride the wave may be the pessimists response. I'm of the latter persuasion, but that's just me. How we act, not what we think, is the final predicting factor. Spend money to stimulate the economy, or not? Continue to paddle like a windmill, spinning and spinning, while slowly sinking under - being $100 dollared to death, short-falling month by month until the coffer is empty? Who do you know that is prospering now? what is the alternative we each have to reverse our fortunes? Thrashing around in the mud with no plan doesn't work for me. We have to pull out. Knowledge is power. I'm hoping to get smarter and do better going forward.
I'm still optimistic, mostly because I've noticed my children (24 and 21) don't seem to expect or even want an opulent life; they are comfortable with making do, owning less and see that as part of living a fulfilling life. Of course I suppose they do expect to be able to find job that will make it possible for them to feed and house themselves in a modest fashion. So far that's been possible -- here at least.
Like Bonnie, I read your whole blog. Off to see how this relates to Jennifer Aniston.
"being $100 dollared to death, short-falling month by month until the coffer is empty?"
well that hits home :/
I just ignore reality around me most days. It's pathetic, but my other option is to worry myself onto a psych ward.
So right Bell. Son has an accounting degree and a culinary degree and has been unemployed for the first time in 10 years, for the past 4 months. In Florida, you must take the equivalent of a Master's Degree of additional coursework in Accountancy before being allowed to sit for the CPA exam. It's difficult to stay in school, get the courses, and feed/house yourself, on $122/week unemployment. Bleak.

Daughter left the country in Jan 2010 and moved to New Zealand. She's making 1/3 more salary now, but the taxes are painful. They go to support free education and health care for all NZed perm residents and citizens. She's working on residency!

None of us expect luxuries, just necessities. We dream, like everyone, but a comfortable life has been out of my reach for the past 5 years. It's been a horrific experience that has given me lessons in letting go... of just about everything. I'm trying to clear my head enough to keep going and to find a place where what I have to offer will be considered fair trade for what I need to live. I don't think anyone would argue we are heading down a road that is going to make that harder and harder to achieve. Yikes.
First, I find it odd that two commenters made the statement, I read your whole blog. Just sayin'... isn't that the norm? But, I digress.

I tend toward natural optimism, although that has been at odds with the past several years of my life (but that's a whole bunch of other blogs for another time.) Still, I see things, people, government, etc. as cyclical and although I am disappointed, dismayed and discouraged about the current state of affairs in our country, I still hold out hope that things are not as dire as many are predicting.

Thought-provoking post, Abby. Well-done.
Rated.
Well said, Abby, and I'm a pessimist too. I read an article yesterday about the 7 US cities with the biggest population loss, and except for New Orleans, which is a special case, the others were all in the Rust Belt, all caused by the decline of our manufacturing base. I worry that jobs will continue to be scarce in many parts of our country, leading to greater poverty, greater income inequality and greater anger. If we continue to parrot the old bromides about American superiority and fail to address the fundamental problems, I think we are indeed f*cked.
I don't know what to say, Abby. Knowledge is power, yes, but what can one do with that power? Look at Obama - he is both knowledgeable and yet rendered powerless.
yeah whatever Unbreakable. I either read the whole thing, or don't read at all. Just being an ass.

Military strength we have Abby. We have it at the expense of the general welfare of our populace. The power of the military industrial complex has been well documented and warned against.
I've said many times, "dot.com bubble" or not WE thrived in the late 90's. We as a country were robbed blind by the Bush Administration et.al who, to the delight of their MIC pals, unjustly invaded Iraq. We went from budget surplus and boom times to "Obama's deficit" and inherited economic meltdown.

You can erase my first comment Abby. \great piece.
"Ferkakdeh" you might say. :)~r
UB, Some people don't read the whole post before commenting, go figure. I posted and didn't even get my kick to the feed in for First!
Is that how she visits 700 blogs a day?
Bonnie, I pledge allegiance to ... a flag? Not likely. My allegiances are shifting right out from underneath me as I see the asshattery going on all over the place with me as the butt of the damn north-going donkey every. damn. time.

Trig - I'm leaving that one up. Because. That's why.

Blittie, what can I say? hope you got some nice treats stored up for the coming year, I think it's going to be lean. (I don't know what to say to a cat, I struggle with that Tink fellow, too)

Rita, we do what we can, but I'm resolved not to be too resolute. ha.

Tink, ok. But it looks like you might be enjoying it a little too much.

OB - there is no doubt, and we seem to be greasing the skids.

Scanner, you old poet you. Thanks for coming by.
Matt, if you figure out how to corral sh*t, please post on it.

Julie, it's the one thing I can count on! Isn't that ridiculous?

Bo, just watch out it doesn't knock you in the head, buddy.
Fusie, I'm not at all ready to toss in the towel on the O man. He's still kickin' and legislation is still passing. Non-partisan might just be the ticket out of this diseased situation and he has placed 'reasonable', and 'necessary' as a weight on the scale as a balance against irrational, blind partisan twaddle. What is not reasonable is to expect years of abuse and neglect in government to be turned around in one administration. As long as I'm seeing change,(and I've read enough to educate myself enough to have an opinion that's not something that just farted out), I'm going to support those things that I believe have a chance to steer us in a better direction. Good ideas will begin to filter into the collective thinking from the ground up at this point. We need to keep the dialogue going, not shrug and say meh (which I am absolutely guilty of).

Joanie, sooo ferkakdeh (did I spell that right?)
G.A. Balances of power and all are not my specialty. (Surprised aren't ya;!) Though we may be travelling on the stream of time, I'm not sure how much those in power can steer the ship ...

I avoid CNN, CNBC and the like. I hope for the best but it's a complicated theory ...
Oh dear Kate! I have an abundance of hope. It is by virtue of the presence of hope that I look forward to the possibilities of creating something better. Hope without knowledge is futile, however, all the hope in the world can't create success. You can't build a road on hope, but if the alternative is despair I chose hope as well.
"It's been a horrific experience that has given me lessons in letting go... of just about everything." Do I ever feel that line, Abby. It's been almost five years since I could be considered anything remotely akin to prosperous. I've been through many ups and downs, but this is the longest downs I've ever seen. I never thought I'd ever be out of work, but even pizza delivery jobs are coveted around here.

I've gone back to school and now survive on food stamps, scholarships, Pell grants and student loans while trying to re-invent myself hoping to find a place to fit into the economic mix.

I remain both cautiously optimistic and skeptical of everything, depending on the time or day the question comes up.

I can't tell from day to day if going back to school will save me or light the fuse that eventually will cause me to live a cardboard existence.

I can tell you that I firmly believe the problems we face as a country are all solvable and if those problems are solved, we still have a chance to live above a third world level. What we can't continue to do is play the worlds terrorist police and not get help footing the bill. Borrowing money from China to fight these wars, while we do all the fighting and dying and they contribute nothing,
is pure bullsh*t.
Of course, that is only one of a thousand examples of how the system is broken. My worry isn't that solutions aren't available, it's that the asses we continue to elect will grow up fast enough to actually come together long enough to adopt the solutions and put them to action. Of that, I am quite concerned.
Michael, I never thought I would see so many friends and acquaintances on the way to becoming Poster Children for Poverty, including myself. I have such respect for your dominant spirit in the face of soul crushing experiences that keep pounding against the bulwark of hope that it seems you and I still have. I pray, as well, that a light in the distance will not be an oncoming train, and that I don't find myself standing in a dynamite depo when I strike whatever match I might find for light along the way! Just my luck!!!
What more should we do Abby? I vote, support, donate. To spend time and energy worrying and painting black mental pictures doesn't change things, just makes us feel frightened and angry. I like Oryoki's comment. Maybe this is how civilizations go, and we lack perspective because we live a nanosec of a lengthy cycle. I like what Belle said too. The kids, the next crop of people, are more than all right.
Gabby, I re-read the second part of my comment and what I meant to relay is ... not what you were referring to is complicated but rather my optimism. did i read a spin on the serenity prayer there at the end? ...
It is the Wal-Mart mentality that is our downfall. But one need not be sucked into it all. Simplify one's life is the key. Know that society is a collection of mostly mentally ill people who are controlled by the brainwashing and distractions that television sells then and us all. Nobody can steal the ability to be individually happy regardless of the insanity that surrounds us. So sayeth the all-knowing, stumbling Spudman on his up days.
My wise friend Heron, and others, thanks for weighing in. This post arose after reading the book I mentioned in the post.

There is a predictable path that history follows (as Oryoki alluded to) and the nature of anything that rises, is that it falls. The terrifically well researched material in Kennedy's book identifies things that have an effect on the rising and falling. Economy is the key, and many factors affect that.
In our case, we have been dragged back into a war economy with an abundance of our resources being delivered to the cause of 'peace in the Middle East', I guess that's the story being told these days out of D.C.

As a result, we have less money being invested in the economy, and we have higher costs for daily commodities, such as gas and oil, associated with the diversion of resources to military efforts, etc. I believe we are out of balance and in order to prevent a complete topple of the ragged economy we have right now, we need to understand better how all of this works. Then talk about it. That's all.

I'm not a news watcher, I detest doom and gloom and days with the word 'Black' in front of them. I refuse to hand wring and fret. What good could possibly come of it? I'm a self confessed lazy thinker sometimes, and in lieu of dwelling on the negative, I've expressed here a need to focus on what I can personally do, for myself, to help me gird up myself against the storm since I really want to make it through in one piece. Having lived in Hurricane Alley for most of my life, I know that ignoring the storm warning is, well, just stoopid.

A head in the sand never saved the ostrich. He just didn't see it coming. Some folks may prefer that approach. I am having second thoughts and would like to do something to improve my outlook about the outcome.
Accept, move on, make change where we can. Yes, eloquently stated.
Anyone who can reference Bismark, Paul Kennedy and Reinhold Neibur and allude to Dane and conlcude "Otherwise, we're f*ched is aces in my book! What a thoughtful post--sharply astute and oh so well written.
The military is draining this economy.
Your last line says it all.
R
As I try to explain to my daughter -- you don't have to be the best to have fun.
When I get down about the future, I think to myself, "At least there's going to be another season of 'Jersey Shore'"! Happy New Year anyway, and let's hope the future will hold better things for us than we might think.
Still transfer my calendar dates by hand...love Niebur. Solid vital post, well conceived and well written! Great comments too. This piece is well done and perfectly timed...many nerves struck. I agree w Heron, Oryoki, you...Sorry so late to this! Happy New Year! r

F'd...and not in a good way.
I am so glad to have read this. One thing is for sure close down the Walmarts and start manufactoring in this country again.
Closing Walmart would put many people out of work, and although I don't give Big Box stores my business (does Costco count?), they distribute goods efficiently. If we return manufacturing to the US, Algis - you have to be willing to pay the higher prices. It's another piece of the economic puzzle that has to be fit into the big picture. It's complicated, but not impossible to unravel. I'm happy if this post gets anyone at all to begin to question, 'What's it all about, Algi?' (ok, that was bad)
Sometimes rising comes in the middle of a free fall. It will all be good this year. Attitudes and opportunities and everything:) It is YOUR time now!
SCJ, I bet you thought this was gonna be about one of my cakes.
I couldn't agree more with your post (well said, too.) A Buddhist said something to me once about loss and gain which gave me the same sense of the inevitability of these ups and downs.

It's scary that our national public narrative is still stuck on "shining city on a hill" and all that delusional nonsense.