benjamin_the_donkey

benjamin_the_donkey
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"Donkeys live a long time. None of you has ever seen a dead donkey."

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Salon.com
FEBRUARY 25, 2011 1:00AM

One Reason Why the Middle East Isn't China

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I've been away for many months now, mainly for personal reasons. I'm back.

In response to the regime-toppling protests in Egypt, China's government recently banned internet seaches of the county's name. No more reseach on the pharaohs or the pyramids, kids! Presumably Bahrain, where protesters have stood their ground and won in pitched battles with the police, and Lybia, now descending into civil war and anarchy, are next on the forbidden list.

While this may seem laughable, it does point out the very real, paranoid fear that China's masters have of their own people. It also got me thinking about the relative success of China's authoritarian style of oppression, and why it hasn't yet collapsed of its own unsubtle absurdity. While I don't want to ignore other factors, much of it comes down to the simple fact of scale.

China's vastness, while itself contributing to ethnic untrest, is also an asset to the dictatorship. In the abscence of a free flow of information, people are separated by both space and their very numbers. What percentage of the billion Chinese people know what really happened in 1989 in Tianenmen Square? How many know anything about the latest winner of the Nobel Peace Prize? How many have actually discussed politics with a Uigher, a Tibetan or a Taiwanese?

Bahrain is a city-state with about 600,000 citizens (who are the primary participants in the protests), and about an equal number of foreign workers. Just imagine Chinese-style  massacres, heavy-handed censorship and torture taking place and then being successfully hushed up in a sovereign, independent Milwaukee or Nashville. Likely it would be your father who was shot, your best friend who was tortured, your sister who disappeared-- and your cousin making the arrests and doing the torturing. It can't be sustained, not for long.

Bahrain is an extreme example, but not an unreasonable one. Even larger Arab nations like Jordan, Algeria and Tunisia have quite small populations. In the region, only Turkey, Iran and Egypt are large and populous enough to make effective suppression of information possible.

Of course, one could argue that intimidation and terror are sufficient tools for a tyranny, even when everyone knows what's happening. Look at the last half of the 20th century in Albania. Look at Burma. That's true, but only has long as the facade of power doesn't show any serious cracks or ever admit defeat. Across the Arab world, the cracks are now obvious and spreading. Even if this round of protests is temporarily quashed, old resentments have been irreparably deepened and the people have seen their power. They'll be back.

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Comments

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Good to see you back. All of this begs the question, what next?
Long time no see, Ben. I think you're right; China is vastly different from the Mideast, and it's not just a matter of scale. I do have to wonder though, if the demonstrations at Tiananmen Square had take place in 2011 instead of 1989, would the Communist Party have felt able to suppress them as ruthlessly? I'm not sure if they would have.
There's another huge difference that you hinted at, but did not elaborate on. China's ethnic makeup works to the advantage, in a way, of its ruling party. The Han may be more willing to endure repression as long as it is imposed by other Han. Repression could be viewed as the price you must pay to maintain hegemony over the other 15% of the population that is composed of ethnic minorities, but which live in 50% or more of the landmass.

I really believe the long-term danger to China's ruling party is not a desire on the part of its people for greater control of their political process, but the very real danger that China could break apart just like the USSR did, but with even greater territorial effect. Picture the old Yugoslavia, but nearly a hundred times bigger. It's the reason China maintains the largest army, by far, in the world -- not for territorial gain, but for territorial retention.
Cathy-- What next, indeed?
Nana-- I agree, it would have been harder, but I don't think that would have stopped them from trying.
Procopius-- All true about the ethnic tensions. I've heard (relatively) open-minded middle class Chinese deplore their "necessary" dictatorship for just this reason-- "Otherwise China would break apart!" Which then compels the question, "And why, exactly, is that a bad thing?"
when I returned had been looking for your posts, good to know you are back Benjamin, and this is a good study and timely and relevant. I hadn't known abt the Chinese ban!

However am not sure they can be back - the 'tyrants' have serious allies you know where, and if people can think of ordering shooting of protesters in Madison, well, I doubt that the people there have that much of a chance without friends outside supporting their cause. ty, rated.