I've been looking at the electoral map and I confess I'm worried about Obama's chances. The national poll numbers are essentially meaningless because we don't have a national election, we have 50 state ones.
It may look like Obama is sitting pretty now, but that's because his states - the ones that are normally Democratic - jelled early. That leaves states that have trended Republican as the ones outstanding.
I don't believe that the William Ayers situation is desperation. McCain is throwing mud because the fight is now in his states and it works. I've traveled extensively in the South and I know the people there aren't guided by cold facts.; their thought processes are driven bt certanties. That's why Palin is an asset. Just listen to the crowd when she mentions the New York Times.
McCain's statements may seem outrageous and dishonorable, but they are crafted to hit people he needs where they live. Just ask Dukakis and Kerry about the gullibility of the American voter.
He may actually be nuts, but the race is still McCain's to lose.
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Joan Walsh
Kerry Lauerman
Salon.com
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Big Ed, whose map are you looking at? Pollster has Obama at 320, not counting swing states. I have a piece about it here, with the map:
http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=26404
The fight is now almost entirely in former red states, and McCain has to sweep all or nearly all of them (depending on size) to win.
I have not seen any evidence of blue states gelling earlier than red. What's your source or data on that?
If you have another map in mind of how you expect it to go, I'd like to see it.
Let's not forget the race factor. The McCain campaign ha been subtly playing that, too. Race may not be a factor for younger voters, but it is among older ones, and they tend to turn out in greater numbers on election day.
But I've been wrong before. One time I thought I made a mistake!
It's up to 347 now.
That's exactly why it's bad for McCain: he's entirely on defense. As his former campaign manager Mike McCurry said on MTP this week, it's very bad for McCain, because it's his barn on fire.
McCain only tried to compete in five blue states, and Obama has come close to locking them down. (McCain officially pulled out of one, MI.)
That leaves it almost entirely fought out in the former red states, where McCain is behind in most of the contested ones, and has to win all.
They don't inevitably tighten, either. Pollster shows analyses of past races where the leader has often gained.
As for older voters turning out more, the polls reflect that. They weight the polls not in terms of percent of population, but in terms of historical voting patterns. (eg, I'll use more extreme numbers than reality, but if 60-70 year olds and 18-22 year olds each account for 5% of the population, but the old ones vote twice as much, and pollsters reach the same number of each in their sample, they multiply the responses of the old folks by two.)
He's definitely nuts, and he'll definitely lose.
Don't get complacent. I've seen these things go sour too often.
Which means nothing, of course. But he was fun to listen to. And while I'm hopeful too, it really ain't over til it's over.