There's been a lot of talk about Sarah Palin's possible future in national politics, and a lot of speculation that she may "appoint herself" to Ted Stevens' seat if he is expelled from the Senate, to give herself a national platform.  But Palin's path to Washington isn't quite so clear.

There are a few things that need to happen first, and a few decisions she'll have to make as well.  Sarah Palin could go to Washington in the end, but first:

1. Ted Stevens needs to win the election

This is looking good so far; CNN has Stevens up by around 3,000 votes with 99% of the precincts reporting.  Of course, that's may not be the end of the story; like most states, Alaska law has a recount provision, allowing any defeated candidate to file a petition within five days after the completion of the official count.  (Alaska Stat. Sec. 15.20.430 et seq.)

Alaska law requires the candidate challenging a statewide vote to put down a $10,000 deposit, which may be forefeited entirely even if the candidate wins.  However, the deposit requirement is waived if the final vote is within half a percent of the total number of ballots cast.  (Alaska Stat. Sec. 15.20.450)

The race isn't that close yet -- it's at about 1% right now.  If it tightens up to half a percent, a recount is going to be pretty much automatic no matter who ends up on top.  If it's close but not that close, there's a chance the Democrats will take a $10k flyer on a recount anyway if they think there's a chance it'll make a difference.

However it plays out, if Begich goes to Washington, Palin will have to stay in Juneau.  Alaska has a recall statute for state officials and legislators, but not for senators.

2. Stevens has to be expelled by the Senate

The Constitution, Article I Section 5, gives the Senate the authority to expel any member with the vote of a two-thirds majority.  Harry Reid said before the election that Stevens would be expelled -- but that was before the election.  And, of course, it assumes Stevens doesn't somehow get his conviction overturned (although even if he does, the Senate could still expel him based on their own investigation).  But there's always a chance the Democrats might not get rid of Stevens even if they could.

The Constitution gives senators immunity from "arrest" that would prevent them from attending the Senate.  However, this immunity applies only to civil arrest, which basically never happens any more, and not to criminal arrest and imprisonment.  If the jury sends Stevens to jail, to jail he will go.  (Williamson v. United States, 207 U.S. 425 (1908)).

Odds are, Stevens will get a minor jail term, if any at all.  However, theoretically, he could face up to five years for each count.  If he does go away for six months or more, the Senate could simply carry on without him, leaving the Republican caucus one vote and one committee member shy, and leaving Sarah Palin back in Juneau.  They could always then expel him when he gets out.

It's a long shot, of course; it wouldn't accomplish much, would annoy the electorate, and the Republicans could get around it easily (by calling for a vote on Stevens' removal themselves or pressuring him to resign from prison).  But when have those things ever stopped the Democratic Congressional leadership before?

In any case, once Stevens' removal comes up for a vote, there's a good chance they'll be able to get rid of him, especially if Stevens has to serve time.

3. Palin could try appointing herself to Stevens' seat...

...but she might well not do so, thanks to yet another Alaskan politician, Frank Murkowski, who in 2002 was elected Governor and immediately appointed his own daughter, Lisa, to his now-vacant Senate seat.  This bit of nepotism was a bit much even for Alaska voters, who approved a referendum stripping governors of the right to appoint interim senators.

There's some question as to whether this initiative was Constitutional, since the Seventeenth Amendment says that the Governor may make such an appointment if the state legislature says it's okay, and the legislature has never repealed the statute allowing interim appointments.

If Palin simply ran for Stevens' seat without a special appointment and lost, she'd return to the Governor's mansion.  But if she appointed herself, she'd presumably have to resign as Governor right away, burning her bridges and getting herself caught up in a lawsuit before the special election even occurred.  The safer route would be for her to either refuse to make an appointment -- this would lead to a lawsuit as well, but she could keep her seat.  Or she could appoint an "interim" Senator, such as Stevens' wife, with the understanding that they wouldn't run in the special election.

4. Palin must win a special election

Either way, the real test for Palin comes 60 to 90 days after Stevens leaves office.  At that point, a special election must be held to fill the remainder of his term, regardless of whether a temporary appointment is made or not.  (Alaska Stat. Sec. 15.40.140).

At that point, the Alaska Republican Party gets to decide who the Republican candidate will be.  This is her final hurdle: since the election, "off the record" revelations have been trickling in about Palin's role in the McCain campaign's defeat and her total unsuitability for national office; for example, that she refused to prepare for press interviews and didn't know that there was more than one country in Africa.  If more damaging stuff comes out, the Alaska Republicans could decide they'd be better off leaving Palin as Governor and running someone else against Begich this time around.

The most likely result of all this is that if Sarah Palin wants Ted Stevens' job, it's hers for the asking.  But there's a lot more to it than just appointing herself and booking her flight to D.C.