OK, here's my final map, which is pretty close to my March map:
The map shows 382, and then add one for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district elector. (NE and Maine don't do winner-take-all, though it's never come into play yet. I think it might this time.)
I would actually rather go with some tossups, but if you had to pin me down, that's what I'll go with.
Coloring Georgia blue is freaking ambitious, but I think the turnout there could overwhelm the Rs.
I think Indiana is also flippable, but less confident. I could easily see those two filp from my predictions.
If it's a really boffo night, we could actually grab Montana, which would not shock me, but I think the odds are against it.
Looks like I'm an optomist, compared to all the pundits on the Sunday news shows. Just about all of them had Obama winning, but mostly in the 230-250 range. But I think they've been way too conservative about what Obama would/will do all year.
I'll see if I can dig up my March map. I have no idea where I filed it. Maybe on Facebook.
Of course several of these states could go either way. Here's the minimum I think Obama will win:
At this point, a red Florida would surprise me, but I could happen.
With the early voting turnout in North Carolina, I also think blue there is highly likely, but it is bucking history, so it could well happen.
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It's nice to see that Obama is not letting up here, though, taking nothing for granted. The TV ads are still everywhere, and he came to Pueblo again yesterday.
I actually wish he'd go to Atalanta.
If Obama really wants to make sure he's the next president, instead of trying to run up the electoral score, he should announce a four corners strategy for Monday the third--Erie in the northwest, York in the Southwest, Scranton/Wilkes Barre in the Northeast and the Philadelphia suburbs, Delaware county in particular in the Southeast. Now is the time for Obama to use that vaunted charisma to secure the votes he most needs.
Thanks and rated!
I added my "minimum victory" map at the bottom, too.
Delusion can go two ways. Every state you list wildly or very optimistic for Obama he is ahead in the polls. So I think an objective observer would rate you as the one in less touch with reality.
I predicted Obama would lose MT, so I'm confused by your "delusional" charge. And I acknowledged that GA would be a stretch, but I think the phenom of a black candidate will drive turnout out in that demo further than the pollster models are accounting for. And I think in any prediction of 51 contests, it's reasonable to pick one upset. You can call that delusional, I call it picking one upset.
I do think Georgia is delusional even if it were the only upset you picked. But, contrary to what you said, the most recent polls show McCain ahead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. Hence to pick Obama to win all of these states qualifies as something more than optimistic, particularly given the number of undecideds and the likelihood that they represent the probability of some minimal "Bradley effect."
I note that you are a self-identified journalist. I would think you would want your predictions to constitute something other than a mere wish-list.
I really think that's what's going to happen.
Also, I secured a buyer for your Colombine book today (other than me, of course.)
look here for North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri--you're wrong on all counts:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_sund_2.php
i'm sure you can find one outlier poll in each state to cite with the reverse, but cherry-picking a dissenter as the norm, well that's good for comic relief.
btw, pollster has McCain up by just 2.2 in Georgia, well within the margin of error, and very open to the influence of turnout. they have GA listed as yellow, toss-up. be sure to let them know that they're "delusional." i'm sure they'll be excited to hear your pronouncement and correct their error right away.
Not only did I hear about the mail-in screwup in Colorado, I experienced it.
(FYI to non-Coloradans. More than half the state is expected to vote before election day here, with about half the registered voters requesting mail-in ballots. (You don't need a reason here. They encourage it.))
Well Denver County screwed up and failed to print/mail a batch of them, which their system showed were sent out on Oct 15. I have not heard any word on how big that batch was, but I was part of it.
I got three robocalls last Sunday night alerting me to it--two from the county, one from Gov. Ritter. They said that the error had been detected and the ballots for us would be mailed the following day.
Sure enough, mine arrived Tuesday. (I had already checked online to see that it said mine was "in process," and had been processed on Oct. 15, the bad day.) Most of our mail arrives next day here, if sent within the city (or between Denver and Boulder.)
So it does look like they were true to their word and mailed them.
There is a potential wrinkle. If you request a mail-in, you can disregard it and vote at an early-voting station (or your own precinct on election day), but you have to do so with a provisional ballot. They feared that this would gum up the system. The robocall from Gov. Ritter was pleading with me/us to wait a few more days, to avoid creating that problem.
I'm not sure how much trouble it would actually cause, or how many people did the provisional voting. I doubt it's a big deal.
The bigger problem might be people who got their ballots relatively late and then don't send them in on time. They're asking people to drop them off rather than mail at this point. I dropped mine off Friday evening.
I'm sure hoping Barack wins FL, but it feels a little shaky to me. I think he'll do it, but it could be close.
For most of the fall, I've been most worried about Ohio, but Obama has been ahead there for more than a month now, and solidifying, expecially in the last week.
pollster now has him at 6.7%, which is a hell of a big gap to overcome in two days. i don't see how mccain can make up that ground.
places like OH are shakier, though, because early-voting is so much less of a factor there, apparently. (it's allowed, but doesn't seem to have been embraced the same way.) obama not banked nearly as many votes there.
of all the red states on my "minimum" map, i think the most likely for obama to pick up is NC. i'd rate him at least 75% likely to take it. the early voting has been so huge there, and so overwhelmingly Democratic, that's probably also insurmountable for mccain.
my other really shaky pick on my main map is North Dakota. (i can't believe jokester didn't call me out on that one.) while obama is ahead by 3.1 on pollster there, the number of polls has been small, so the margin of error is high. and there is not much black population for that aspect of turnout to push the numbers much. that may turn out to be my most optimistic prediction. (oh, i forgot, getting one or two wrong makes me not just correct on 98% or 96% of the states, respectively, but "delusional.")
i also REALLY wanted to mark Indiana blue, and think it's a real possibility, but just a little too much of a longshot.
but i guess we'll see.
I'm just breathing a sigh of relief. I got the typeset pages, posted on it here, with a scan of the title page:
http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=37316
Both Montana and Colorado voted for Clinton in 1992. I would have thought that Montana would go Democrat before North Dakota, but the polls are showing ND to be the one leaning Obama.
I think Ohio will be close and Missouri going Obama would be a welcome surprise. Though Missouri voted for Clinton twice, it's a state where the religious right has become more powerful in the last ten years.
Just two more days before us prognosticators look like geniuses or idiots and nothing in between.
I've been canvassing here in Colorado Springs for the past month...
I have seen a big change here....people are telling me they will be voting for Obama and have never voted Democrat.
Michelle Obama was here last Wed. and I attended.
1,000 people could not get in....I guess they did not expect so many people...
I was thrilled at the turnout!!!!
Great map...Thank you, Dave!
Margie
There are eight states within five roughly five points (5.2 or under) as of this morning on pollster: Obama is leading in four, and McCain in four. I called five of the eight for Obama, three for McCain. So I don't see how that's calling all the close ones as falling for Obama.
If you call Ohio close, Obama is leading there by 6.7, and growing. On the flipside, South Dakato is nearly as close, with McCain leading by 7.5. I'm not predicting that for Obama.
All year, I have felt a pessimistic streak among Dems, where anything where we're leading by under 10 is "close," and anything where they're leading by 5-10 isn't even considered in play. (BTW Mississippi is just under 10 now.)
I realize that Ds have been burned two elections in a row, where many of us thought it was within reach, but I think that is coloring a lot of thinking.
Also, it seems hard to picture "red" states blue, but states reallign every few decades in the normal course of things. Just because it was red the last few times--or even several times--doesn't mean it will be red forever.
I too am glad we'll know in two days, though.
And thanks for working down there.
I just got a text msg that Michelle is coming to the Denver suburbs again tomorrow. (This sounds like a last minute thing. I had not heard anything about it.)
It's another trip into the heart of red-state (one high school over from Columbine). Most of their trips here--and in the other red states lately--have been into these areas. They figure they are already getting big turnout from the D strongholds and want to widen the net.
I think this is a great strategy.
You are so right....if Obama can get support here, he can get votes anywhere.
Good news about Michele making another trip to the Denver subrubs tomorrow....I agree, good strategy.
And, I've loved doing the canvassing....thanks for the appreciation.
Margie.
The McCain camp must have been in tears. They kept the dufus quiet this long. He couldn't shut up three more days?
By this morning, Obama had an ad showing it. It made me chuckle. I loved the music.
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hey, La, i was just thinking i should make a new True Blood post or find somewhere to post about it.
i just watched last week's True Blood and it creeped me out a bit, for the first time.
incredible stuff, but it did start to get to me. those vampires are dangerous! hahaha. but really. i'm nervous for all the characters i've come to like getting mixed up with them.
but i had to quit reading your comment one line in because i haven't seen tonight's yet. i sat down to watch it and realized i had never gotten to last week's. too much work last week. i was crazy on deadline.
i will soon, though.
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one other thing: my count in the post is off by one, because i keep forgetting the rogue Nebraska house seat elector. i think it's going to go blue this time. i'm counting that one in my prediction, but there's no way to show it on any of the map sites i've seen. i often forget to add it on.
so my count should say 383. i'm correcting it now.
I’ll be in Atlanta at a rally Tuesday night. As a Georgian, I’ve already voted Obama. I think you’re right about the Peach State and you’re not the only one wishing Barack would show up in Atlanta vice Pueblo for a last second speech.
My girlfriend and I were driving through the city Saturday night and saw a police escorted limousine. We seriously contemplated following it, thinking that perhaps Barack (or at least Michelle) might be making a surprise appearance.
The early voting has been huge down here. Everyone in my immediate family (including grandparents) has voted already. We’re 5-4 Obama and 6-3 Jim Martin (who is trying to unseat Republican Saxby Chambliss in the senate race). In 2004, my family was 6-2 in favor of W.
Your Georgia pick is not that ambitious. And even if Obama loses here, Jim Martin has a serious chance.
(My girlfriends’ family is overwhelmingly Obama… but we couldn’t get her Jehova’s Witness cousins to vote)
Today, mostly good news again. No significant "narrowing." Their lede:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_mond_1.php
If you hoping for (or dreading) indications of a clear shift in voter preferences on the surveys released in the last 24 hours, you will not find them here this morning. As of this writing, Barack Obama's margin has clicked up very slightly on our national trend estimate, while yesterday's statewide surveys show a very slight narrowing of that margin in a few key battleground states. However, our current classification of the states remains unchanged over the weekend: We still show 311 electoral votes for Obama, 142 for McCain with seven states representing 85 electoral votes still in our toss-up category.