Tomorrow Happens

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David Brin

David Brin
Location
San Diego, California, USA
Birthday
October 06
Bio
David Brin’s novels have been translated into more than twenty languages, including New York Times Best-sellers that won Hugo, Nebula and other awards. His 1989 ecological thriller, Earth, foreshadowed cyberwarfare the World Wide Web,global warming and Gulf Coast flooding. ........ A 1998 Kevin Costner film was loosely adapted from his Campbell prizewinner - The Postman. Kiln People portrays technology letting people be in two places at once. "Foundation's Triumph" brought a grand finale to Isaac Asimov's famed Foundation Universe. Brin's groundbreaking hardcover graphic novel "The Life Eaters" was an international sensation. .......... David Brin is also a noted scientist, futurist and speaker who appears frequently on television ("Life After People," "The Universe," "the Architechs"), discussing trends in the near and far future, with subjects as diverse as surveillance technology, astronomy, SETI, nanotechnology and national defense. His non-fiction book -- "The Transparent Society: Will Technology Make Us Choose Between Freedom and Privacy?" -- deals with issues of openness, security and liberty in the new wired-age. It won the 2000 Freedom of Speech Award of the American Library Association and a prize from the McGannon Foundation for public service in communications. .......... Main web site: http://www.davidbrin.com .......... Alternate blog: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ ........... Speaking/consulting: http://www.davidbrin.com/speaker.html

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Salon.com
Editor’s Pick
SEPTEMBER 24, 2008 5:04PM

Why Obama Asked McCain to "Stipulate" Common Ground

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One of my political essays: “Why The Candidates Should Stipulate,” has been circulating in various forms for years.  I know the most recent version was read by people in Obama’s campaign.  Could this be what gave them the idea for the following?

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.
    
It does sound like precisely what I recommended. 

And so, let me offer a freash version of that essay, below. (I had planned to post it today, anyway!)  It continues on the theme of my previous essay here...offering some nonpartisan, unconventional win-win proposals that might help either major candidate to be successful and help us all.

 ---------------

Stipulation - How Obamacain Could Save Us, No Matter Who Wins

Watching Barack Obama and John McCain meet at the 9/11 Memorial Site - sharing a handshake, a brief hug, and sincere solemnity at an event that transcends politics - we were reminded of a simple truth: that some of America's best moments arise not from polar opposition, but consensus.  Pure - and puerile - dichotomies can be as toxic as monomaniacal uniformity.  Both kinds of fanaticism must give way to negotiated problem-solving, or we'll never meet our challenges in time to move on to the next problem, or the next.  

Yes, our divisions seem stark.  And yet, even amid a frenzy of partisan squabbling and ongoing Culture War, all isn't black-and-white. Or red vs blue.

Illustrating this point, the Los Angeles Times recently offered an editorial about ”Obamacain” -- highlighting areas where the candidates overlap. “(Obama and McCain) will have plenty to argue about. But some might be surprised at the breadth of issues on which they largely agree.”  Pointing to oases of concurrence on national security, immigration, the environment and social issues, the Times went on to suggest that consensus, instead of Fox-style reflexive opposition, ought to be attractive now and then.

More examples keep surfacing, mostly unremarked by sensationalist media.  For example, Senator Obama has offered to put on the table resumption of both offshore drilling and "responsible" nuclear power, if these are balanced by movement on a wide range of environmental matters.  And, while Senator McCain hews to the Bush Doctrine of unilateral pre-emptive warfare based on sole presidential prerogative, he’s aligned with his opponent about ending the use of torture. Moreover, in switching his campaign theme from "experience" to "change," McCain now calls for uprooting corruption in Washington.  (He should be challenged to offer specifics.)

While praising these areas of policy overlap, the Times failed to point out the obvious – that  these areas of overlap happen to be where both campaigns already saw the lay of the land.   They arose out of the candidates following us, not the other way around.  Unfortunately, the Times stopped short of following their own logic… taking this notion of overlap to a bold-but-logical conclusion.

 So let's do it here.

Bear with me a bit.  After belaboring the obvious, we'll reach a startling proposition.  


Why we're never told what the candidates really believe.

The worst part of Culture War is the way it thwarts even kindergarten skills of negotiation and pragmatic compromise. Worse, candor is punished.  While both sides rail at each other, they'll never aim bad news at us. Even if both nominees believe, deep-down, that we need to face some hard truth, neither will say it first, lest the other take advantage.

Of course there must be be some areas where Obama and McCain – two smart and well-informed men - agree with each other, but are afraid to speak.  Underneath these ambitious politicians, might there lurk a simmering statesman, fearful to come out?  

Now, step back and ask yourself.  If a majority of voters have already pledged general fealty to one of two nominees, haven’t we already voted, months before the general election, to trust their wisdom enough to listen... at least tentatively... to areas where they both agree change is needed?

Consider a logical solution. There is no political cost to telling voters what you really believe... if your opponent has agreed, in advance, to say the same thing.

It's called stipulation... as when the attorneys for both sides in a trial agree to agree about a set of points. By stipulating these points, they help move the trial forward, focusing thereafter on areas of conflict.

What does stipulation have to do with politics? Given the intensity of recent partisanship, is it dumb to picture John McCain and Barack Obama suspending their struggle for one afternoon, meeting like adults to calm down the rhetoric, and then doing something astonishing? Seeking a few points of brief consensus?  Not over the easy stuff, but things they both believe the public needs to know?

Imagine them offering a joint statement. Though reiterating a myriad points of disagreement, they go on to jointly agree that America should, for its own good…  well,  say, raise the retirement age, or curb lobbyists, or create the powerful new post of Inspector General of the United States?  Or help the skilled men and women of the U.S. Civil Service get back to work? (More on this topic another time.)  Or maybe they’d agree (in principle) to do something about the endless, brain-dead drug war?  Yes, even negotiating which points fall into this category would be hard, demanding real courage.  But aren’t these supposed to be brave men?

Clearly, this proposal goes far, far beyond a few editorials pointing out areas of vague, pre-popular overlap. But the upside potential makes it worth at least a passing daydream!  No longer pandered to, might people say -- "Gosh, if both of the major candidates agree that the country needs this strong medicine, then let's give it some thought."

Is the daydream absurd?


Neither impossible nor unprecedented.

In fact, it’s happened before. Franklin Roosevelt was running for a third term,  in 1940, when he asked the Republican candidate, Wendell Wilkie, to stipulate a matter of vital foreign policy. Britain badly needed escort vessels for the North Atlantic and the U.S. had over-age destroyers to spare. But Roosevelt feared the political cost of breaking neutrality. Fortunately, Wilkie agreed to FDR's request, and declared that lend-lease would be his policy too, if elected. Everyone benefited. Wilkie rose in stature. FDR got his policy implemented. Public attitudes shifted profoundly, overnight. And political advantage was briefly put aside for the common good.  Roosevelt and Wilkie continued battling, fiercely, over other matters. Yet, that historical act of stipulation is what shines in memory.

How might today's politics differ if two adults -- each the standard bearer of a major party -- agreed to let it be known how they agree, in just a few ways? Might they take on some of our most politically impossible subjects? Perhaps a cow as sacred as compromise over gun control, immigration or campaign finance reform?  Or, possibly, even Culture War itself?  That would leave plenty to fight over!  Moreover, with millions of Americans yearning for more maturity in politics, suppose a candidate offered this, and the other refused? There might be benefits there, as well.

Consider also this.  A short list of stipulated proposals would make the job of the next president easier, whomever has to take on the hard task of cleanup, ahead.  With both parties officially lined up behind the same small set of measures, at least some of the nation’s business would get rapid attention, before gridlock resumes.

Does this quixotic proposal have any chance of happening during the 2008 election cycle?  About as much as Obama has in Utah, or McCain in Hawaii.  In other words, zilch, alas.  Still, politics evolves. Only recently has the tradition of Presidential debates became so entrenched that no front-runner can now duck them. Ancient hurdles of age, race, and gender are falling. Why not barriers against candor?

Might the Candidates' Post-Convention Summit become traditional, like doldrums in July and mudslinging in October? Someday, the whole nation may look forward to the occasion, once every four years, with a sort of delicious, nervous anticipation -- awaiting the one day when two eminent politicians will tell us not what is politically savvy, but simply wise.


====

 And yes... I hope I had some role in helping this historic thing to happen.

For much more, come visit:

http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/

 

 

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Let me add that I have other -- much more partisan -- things to say at http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/

One of the conclusions that I've reached is that none of us understands the "derivitives" and other "innovative" (gambling ) instruments involved in the present crisis. Indeed, those who do understand them, on the Republican side, are not to be trusted.

Hence, we have one option -- turn to those who opposed this mess and predicted it from the beginning.

Warren Buffet - the "world's greatest investor" - predicted this calamity way back in 2002, and ever since. He advises Barack Obama, but has been very balanced over the years.

The fundamental requirement -- and a brave senator should filibuster till it is accepted -- is simply this --

" No Buffet? No deal!
Like that filibuster of FISA that fizzled?

The Democrats are spineless and the Republicans are morally bankrupt.

What is your opinion on third parties?
If the two duopoly candidates stipulated all they agreed upon, it would expose the lie of the Establishment Party in both its wings and the mass media that the parties actually present the public with a meaningful choice, and that we have the substance and not just the appearance of a democratic system. It would reveal that there are only minor differences, nothing as major as the differences between the positions of the duopoly parties and the people, e.g. in national priorities where surveys show majorities of members of both parties believe they need to be reordered by cutting the military budget substantially while the parties propose increasing the military budget.

Such a stipulation would make it much easier for third parties and independents to demonstrate the truth of their contention that we have to vote for someone other than the duopoly candidates if we want meaningful change. So it is hard to imagine the duopoly candidates agreeing to such a thing. They want to maintain the illusion. Of course, even if they did agree, the mass media and the Commission on Presidential Debates would probably still refuse to provide the people with meaningful information on alternatives.
Bill, I am an indie who votes third party as much as feasible and I appreciate your comment.
Sorry, but Bill is in love with a sanctimonious cliche.

There are hundreds of issues dividing the parties. If the candidates found a half dozen to stipulate, it would not erase the differences but clarify them.

Moreover, It is positively weird, at this point, to pursue the mania that the dems and gops are tweedle-dee/tweedle-dum.

Dig it, secrecy went steeply DOWN and accountability and professionalism went UP under Clinton. And in the diametrically opposite directions under Bush. These are the fundamentals that matter far more than policy differences, because they determine whether government functions efficiently and honestly and whether civil servants do what they are paid to do. And let me reiterate, these opposite trends were clear, provable and overwhelmingly consistent.

"They all do it and Clinton was just as bad." displays utter un-historicity. A billion dollar witch hunt that spanned 14 years and involved thousands of FBI agents etc, never turned up one Clintonian smoking gun. Not one. Ever. That is sufficient proof of a negative through failure to produce a single positive. Beyond question, they were the most honest administration in US history. This may make you choke and sputter. But disprove the assertion with more than vague armwavings, if you can.

Meanwhile, you cannot point to a single US agency that was not deliberately crippled by the Bushites, preventing civil servants from doing their jobs, in order to provide cover for the greatest mass klepto raid in our history. Now these socialists want every citizen and baby to pay $2300 to buy failed wagers made by about 5,000 Bush family friends.

Sure, I have voted Libertarian at times and I choose one, every election. I spoke at their national convention and I hope they do well (and grow up a bit.) They are an option for decent conservatives who've had enough. Third Parties? Fine!

But drop the Tweedle-dee garbage. There is a clear choice and it is the biggest one since Lincoln.
There may be more tweedle than you care to admit in the sense that both the Democratic and Republican parties have become the parties of big business. I cite AT&T swooping in to pick up the tab for the Democratic Convention right after the Democrats let them off the hook for potentially billions in liability for their illegal invasion of citizen privacy with the farcical FISA vote, as just one example of many that shows the Democrats are just as corrupted by corporate interests as the Republicans.

I'll also add that many of the so called differences are merely created wedge issues to open the check books of the base and flog them to the polls, all while the real work of keeping big business fat and happy continues.

What is your opinion on the Greens?

Do you think Obama should accept Barr's challenge this Friday?

(rated)
Thanks, and of course you are right to be skeptical, suspicious and concerned. Even though Tom Delay's "K Street Project" effectively shut democrats out of lobbying money for nearly ten years (an externally-enforced rectitude, though one you ignore) it is - of course - likely that many dems have corporatist leanings.

Still, you evade the issue, drawing general conclusions from a few anecdotes. Clinging to a cynical generalization does you no credit when you refuse to even glance at the giant fact above all facts -- that The Clinton-era democrats are proved and that is P-R-O-V-E-D to have been competent, efficient and honest, by the most thorough "trial" and exoneration, after search for evidence, in all of history.

Given that fact... and the diametrically opposite proved fact of relentless and insatiable GOP corruption... this attitude is simply sad and unworthy of flexible minds.

If they were the same, Bush would not have to use scare tactics and lies in order to get his way, either in 2003 or 2008. Granted, one can be pissed at the dems for showing no backbone! That is another story and another - quite valid - complaint.

Still, the Tweedle-dee assertion is pathetic hogwash. Barack Obama will enter office with the shortest list of political IOUs of any president since Washington, leading the party under which stocks, small business and fiscal responsibility ALWAYS do better. Always.

Sure, the sane (non-klepto) half of the corporate world would want that. Don't you?
Sorry, but Obama does have IOUs. Rather large ones in fact to Wall St. The same companies who have their hand's out now have padded his pocket handsomely.

If you look at the numbers over at opensecrets.com, Obama has gotten ten times the money McCain has from the likes of Goldman-Sachs and their employees. I don't make the mistake of conflating Bush with McCain. Both McCain and Obama are war mongers who are willing to spend irresponsibly to perpetuate the war on terror and the war on drugs.

I agree that the Clinton years were pretty good, but I so not conflate Obama with Clinton, either. Obama has shown a willingness to sell out his base time and time again for corporate interests. I can give more examples than FISA, but fear you would just dismiss them as anecdotal.

You sound like you are sipping the Obama hope-aid a little and so I think your objectivity may be questionable.

I understand the desire to believe Obama will be a right actor not beholden to vile interests, but I am realistic enough to realize it just ain't so.

I also sincerely doubt the non-klepto portion of the corporate world is as high as fifty percent. Corporations by definition are devoid of social conscience. Pure profit driven entities or at least that is what I learned in corporate law.

You have interesting thoughts and your post deserves my thumbs up.
Har! Armwaving generalities. You get pinned by the fact that Clinton's era was pure and without significant sin, yet refuse to even hypothesize that it might have been a result of the culture that infused the 10,000 people surrounding him - who each and independently decided not to sin.

But no... even though Obama is surrounded by the same people and the same culture, after 10 years when Demos couldn't wallow in lobbyist money even if they WANTED to... you still posit the astounding and evidence-free hypothesis that Obama represents a sea change away from the Clinton/Democratic way.

BTW, Clinton took money hand over fist from everybody in sight. The real test is whether they do anything quid pro quo. Show me any of that from Obama, who "owes" ten million $20 donors.

BTW, Goldman is the "goodguy" of the 5 investment banks. The one that engaged in the monstrous gambling the least. The one that goodguy investor Warren Buffet thinks worth putting his money into. Backing from Goldman is a GOOD sign that they want better government than the nation-destroying monsters on the right.

Yes, all politics should be public financed and elite-money banned. But try opening your eyes to the subtleties.

I won't discuss this with closeminded cynic-fetishists anymore. I raised the topic of Stipulation. Either please talk about that or take the cynic rants elsewhere. We're busy with a nation to save, and hope helps.
Maybe you aren't as rational of a thinker as your post led me to believe.

I am especially floored by your portrayal of Goldman-Sachs as a white hat.
Comparatively. And that comparative difference is important. You prove the old saw that the worst icynics are angry and frustrated idealists. As opposed to the starry-eyed kind.

Problem is, romantic idealists (of either kind) aren't as useful right now as ideals-grounded pragmatists.

If Goldman invested in real companies and products and minimized the loony derivatives wagering - demonstrated by the fact that it survives and drew investment from Bufft, then its hat is a light enough shade of gray to merit a second look.

If it donates to democrats, might that be in part not influence-buying, but to help democrats win, because they see Bushites for what they are? Your unwillingness to see complexity is typically romantic. Then you diss those who DO see complexity as fools. Alas. And this is one of a myriad examples.

Cynicism is precisely the same as laziness. A self-protective shell that lets people shrug off the need to do arduous and complex work, sometimes navigating shades of gray. And that is all that I will say about this.

Good luck to you and to all of us.
I realize this is presumptuous of me to say, but as you have been making some rather sweepingly judgments with little to no basis about me in your replies -- here goes:

I noticed your blog today and took an interest in what was happening in the comment thread. Consequently I posted a comment. I was slogged by you in return. So I tried again and got the same result. You have called me lazy, angry and close minded. I admit to tweaking your tail about the Obama hope aid, but you were jumping to negative conclusions before I did that.

I am starting to think there may be a reason why your blogs do not attract many commenters despite their being good reads that make valid and original points. Or at least original in comparison to many here at OS.

But whatever. Maybe you have a strategy to drive off readers and prevent traffic to your posts. In which case, carry on. I will go else where as I tire of your dismissive behavior. I had planned on checking out your more partisan blog so I could more fully understand your point of view, but you've convinced me not to with your latest slams.

In other words, you are being a prick - but good luck with it.
And thus prove the selection bias I was talking to you about. Your insults do not matter or were harmless. You call me "not a rational thinker" and I am supposed to... what?

In fact, my response to that was argumentative but not ad hominem, directly responding to your blanket dismissal of Goldman being different from the other investment banks. My response was filled with actual, discursive content, that you might have addressed.

I admit my earlier "Har!" in response to your thumbs-up was too-hurried and rash, and I apologize for that.

I wish you well.