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David Brin

David Brin
Location
San Diego, California, USA
Birthday
October 06
Bio
http://www.davidbrin.com David Brin’s novels have been translated into more than twenty languages, including New York Times Best-sellers that won Hugo and Nebula awards. His 1989 ecological thriller, Earth, foreshadowed cyberwarfare, the World Wide Web, global warming and Gulf Coast flooding. A 1998 Kevin Costner film was loosely adapted from his post-apocalyptic novel, The Postman. ............................................ Brin is a noted scientist, futurist and speaker who appears frequently on television (Life After People, The Universe), discussing trends in the near and far future, on subjects such as surveillance, technology, astronomy, and SETI. His non-fiction book, The Transparent Society, deals with issues of openness and security in the wired-age. ............................................. David Brin web site: http://www.davidbrin.com http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ Twitter: http://twitter.com/DavidBrin1 Facbook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/David-Brin/22358129265

Editor’s Pick
SEPTEMBER 16, 2009 3:40PM

Judo Politics: a way to get all kids insured

Rate: 14 Flag

Intermission note:  Before continuing to give my second part -- this time about some craziness on the left -- I want to say this about Health Care

 It appears that President Obama may have to retreat from the "public option" in his effort to achieve some Health Care Reform, this year.  It may surprise you to learn that I approve of this jiu jitsu move. 

 What, you think this is the only battle in this fight?  The "only chance?"  That kind of impatience ruined Hillary's over-reach in 93 and torpedoed her husband's presidency.  Pragmatists prefer incrementalism.

I say, let the insurance companies crow over a "victory" that substantially changes the health insurance marketplace for the better, drives competition, but leaves out a government -run system to take up the slack where people cannot get policies by private means.

Why?  Because a man as smart as Obama knows that a multi-step judo move works better than one big sumo charge.  Once he has his market reforms in place, he can then do something simple, that would undercut the for-profits and really force them to the negotiating table.

Call for a followup bill that simply puts all american children under Medicare.

The reasoning is simple and implacable -- if old people deserve it, so do their equally vulnerable grandchildren.

 Put it just that way,  starkly and simply.  A bill that could go on one page of paper.  One that needs no extensive argument or amending.  Vote now: Is this a good idea or not?  Yea or nay.  Most would not dare oppose it.

Remove forty million Americans, in a shot, from the rolls of the for-profits, and you'll get their attention, all right.  Next, threaten to raise the cutoff age from 18 to 21... then 25... and watch how quickly they come to the negotiating table.

Ah, judo.

======

Yes, some of you have heard this idea, many times before.  But its simplicity bears repeating.

Note:  poor kids are already getting government health benefits under SCHIP -- though in a far more complex way.  Hence, this change would not be a huge new expense.  But it would simplify matters greatly.

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I like this angle Dave. Let's hope it's what really is going through Obama's mind.
I have commented on such K.I.S.S. incrementalism before, in that making it about Public Option or not would keep the focus on one major, sans-confusing-additions initiative and not the Town Hall Hollerers.
This idea, though, manages to tug at the right strings - the children - and also walks that incremental path.
Good idea. Marketable.
Yeah. It's hard to underestimate how smart that wiley old Obamaman is.
i hope you're right. what you're suggesting requires a lot of faith that i just don't have.

it's the same way i felt about the fisa legislation last summer. i would rather have clarity in the law than trust politicians to exercise oversight consistently. we're watching a demonstration that shows just how hard the republicans will fight any health care reform. staggering reforms might just give them more battles and more opportunities to mobilize their idiots.
you may be right. anyway, it's the only game in town.
"Call for a followup bill that simply puts all american children under Medicare."

Really David? Really?

No offense, but I think your suggested solution is even more radically pie-in-the-sky than a public option. A full MANDATE for an entire age group? Come on.

Furthermore, incrementalism works when there is incremental progress, and my limited understanding of this bill suggests that it includes little or none.

I like your politics and enjoy your writing, but I disagree with your tactical approach in this instance. There is a rare and fleeting window of opportunity to implement a less radical change than you propose: a public option, now.

With respect, I fear the moment is quickly passing.
Incrementalism cuts both ways. Put the kids on medicare, the government damn well better have accurate economic projections as to cost. That has never happened before. So, if they can do it accurately, I would entertain further incrementalism. If they stay consistent and mess it up, I would be evermore resolved to fight it. But, yeah, let it start incrementally and see if gov't has an accurate handle on cost.
We know how - for better or worse - to do medicare.

Americans have shown that they are profoundly -- not just a little -- more willing to be "socialistic" toward children than toward adults. Anyone who does not understand this about American simply does NOT understand Americans. For pete's sake, look at education.

We... or a large fraction of us... believe adults should to some degree take care of themselves. That old timey, wild west spirit collapses when the issue is kids. If Dems focused entirely on kids, they would win in a walk.

Yes, that insures forty million, while leaving their parents in the cold. But parents who have one less worry. One less expense. And the health insurance cos will suddenly lose 20 million (or more) customers.

And next year, the age limit can be raised to include everyone even in college.
I suspect first, the idea you suggest is not part of the Obama blueprint. Second, I do not believe it would be any easier to accomplish than either the public option or single payer. How would Obama do this? More legislation or an executive order?
this is what they were saying during the great schip battle of 97.
http://www.eagleforum.org/column/1997/mar97/97-03-25.html

it's amazing to see how little the rhetoric has changed. it's all about freedom and choices, which is why i think it's interesting to see the fact that something that's called a "public option" is still attacked as socialism.
"A justice delayed is a justice denied" - MLK

Denying justice is the least pragmatic move possible. Reality doesn't change just because we don't consider it "politically viable". Go ahead and you pick the kids to deny healthcare to. Tell them it's not pragmatic.

This is the same sort of wishful thinking that got us into Iraq.
I love your writing and your thoughts, but I bow out deeply on this. It doesn't get much incrementally except ease of use, especially because many parents wouldn't switch from private insurance to medicare.

Additionally, I value the art of making incremental goals, as long as it is in line with the foundation of the overall goal. I don't see how overlooking the real problem of un/under insured Americans in the name of an "incremental political win" because children were signed up (when they are already eligible under another plan, however burdensome) does much to win the battle.

We are primed, it is time to win the battle. We just need a consistent, willing, committed voice out of the White House, the Democrats, as well as Americans. The wingnuts are dominating the conversation in terms of what Americans think about HCR. I would love to see a "solidarity march" on Washington D.C. in support of the public option...just think what we look like to the outside world right now...the only thing the papers captured after the President's speech is the march made by the "tea baggers". Why are we not assembling too?
Where do I sign? The down side of this, or downfall might be a a better term, is the same problem that we are running into now. It really doesn't matter what you or your Congressman wants, it only matters what corporate America wants since they are the ones who are really pulling the strings in Washington by the use of legal bribery and high dollar lobbying. We are getting beat back with our own money why we die from lack of health care. You just have to love the irony in that.
That said, your proposal does have merit.
I don't agree with bowing down to the Republicans. I feel that Obama is strong-minded enough to get it right from the get-go... by including everyone. We need to take the dumbass conservatives down... period.
I have often wondered why Medicare doesn't cover children. Could it be that most elderly Americans are white, while American children are a far more diverse group?
Most of you may be too young to remember 1993, when Hillary tried the "pass my big Health Reform, all-or-nothing bill, take it or leave it!" approach.

Result? SIXTEEN YEARS of almost no progress in Health care, a dismal, floundering failure that left her husband's presidency permanently crippled and resulting in the "Gingrich Revolution" taking over Congress for the Republicans.

THAT is what "all or nothing" got us, last time. And people actually have the nerve to deride incrementalism now?

Dig it, a partial success now lets Obama make things one big step better... and have a victory that he can take into the 2010 elections, with the goppers looking like the losers. That is why the GOP leaders have offered no compromises, because they WANT it to be all-or-nothing.

As for covering all kids, undermedicare, no one would dare oppose it. The equity - compared to the elderly - is just too plain and Americans are vastly more "socialistic" in their attitudes toward children than toward adults. When everyone over 65 and below 18... then 21... then in college... is covered, can't you see the beginning of the Big Squeeze?

Again. At that point the healthcos will have to negotiate.
This is a really interesting take David. I am in agreement with a number of the commenters here that we should have right now the political clout to do this correctly (single payer, or public option at a minimum) but I am also realistic enough to know that the money covering this issue is destroying almost all hope. Politics, after all, is the art of the possible, not the art of the good.
So, in the end, if we dont get single payer/public option type legislation, your suggestion would be one worth pursuing.
We cannot count a single R. Party enforcement is total over there. To not toe the line is to become the next Arlen Specter, a man with no country. And, we will have a hard time gathering the Ds. The money being shoveled at them is simply too immense. So we are likely this session to come away with precious little.
Next year, being congressional election season, will see the Rs gain back a few seats and the Ds whining that now they REALLY cant do anything because those nasty Rs beat them up again.
Kibuki theatre, all of it.
brin, i actually posted a link to give an example of how the conversation went last time. if you think a bill that targets children will not be contentious, you're dead wrong.

because you're right. i am too young to remember, but i'm not to young to research what happened. you're pitching a fantasy here:
"As for covering all kids, undermedicare, no one would dare oppose it. The equity - compared to the elderly - is just too plain and Americans are vastly more "socialistic" in their attitudes toward children than toward adults."

they did dare oppose it. we should pay attention to how that battle went. maybe we can win it, but you're wrong when you say it would be easier.

" In 1994, the American people decisively rejected the grandiose Clinton plan for the Federal Government to be the manager, the financier, and the regulator of the health care industry. What we are witnessing now is an attempt by Kennedy, Clinton and Hatch to enact the same plan incrementally, starting with children.

Let's not lose our perspective. Children are the healthiest segment of our society. Contrary to Hatch's extravagant rhetoric, most of the children who lack health insurance are not "scarred for the rest of their lives."
http://www.eagleforum.org/column/1997/mar97/97-03-25.html
Rated for the recognition that we may have to take this thing in steps. You're the first person I've heard say it.
You're raising the same issue the "public option" raises: single payer. When the most logical way to get to single payer -- extending Medicare -- isn't even on the table, and the more difficult way -- the public option -- is traded away before the negotiations start, it's difficult to see this smack down of single payer as a shrewd judo move. The opponents of single payer did what they needed to do when they took Hillary Clinton out of the game last year. It has to be hard not to project what you'd do into this situation. Obama is not going keep hammering away for single payer. He's going to declare victory and move on to the next campaign. Like Bush, Obama is living proof that there is a world of difference between getting elected and governing. Your view that his presidency was torpedoed notwithstanding, the last President we elected who could actually govern was Clinton. You might as easily argue that he set up healthcare for the next Democratic President and Congress by failing to get it -- judo on the Yoda level.
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