Tomorrow Happens

...trends slamming at us from the dark

David Brin

David Brin
Location
San Diego, California, USA
Birthday
October 06
Bio
http://www.davidbrin.com David Brin’s novels have been translated into more than twenty languages, including New York Times Best-sellers that won Hugo and Nebula awards. His 1989 ecological thriller, Earth, foreshadowed cyberwarfare, the World Wide Web, global warming and Gulf Coast flooding. A 1998 Kevin Costner film was loosely adapted from his post-apocalyptic novel, The Postman. ............................................ Brin is a noted scientist, futurist and speaker who appears frequently on television (Life After People, The Universe), discussing trends in the near and far future, on subjects such as surveillance, technology, astronomy, and SETI. His non-fiction book, The Transparent Society, deals with issues of openness and security in the wired-age. ............................................. David Brin web site: http://www.davidbrin.com http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ Twitter: http://twitter.com/DavidBrin Facbook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/David-Brin/22358129265

DECEMBER 8, 2012 7:50PM

A look at Earth 22 years later

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EarthHC

"Self-awareness is probably over-rated. A complex self-regulating system probably doesn't need it in order to be successful or even smart." --Earth


People who read Existence often compare it to my other big canvas near future novel, Earth -- published over twenty years ago (and recently re-released in the U.K.). Both books try to capture and portray a world that most of you just might come to live in. A world that has transformed in ways that are startlingly both good and bad... and yet has remained stubbornly the same in ways you'll find surprising, as well.


Such a mixture of amazement and frustration about progress is what many of us feel about this very time! I try to convey that inevitable near-future blend... but with a little extra science and science-based danger spiced in, both for thought and a lively plot.


UKEarthPBEarth was written at the end of the 1980s. Some 'predictions' that got  attention were my portrayal of a vivid, dynamic World Wide Web, wearable computing, Tru-Vu sousveillance goggles, as well as large-scale changes such as sea level rise and global warming. In fact, predictions registries have been set up at Technovelgy.com and Issuepedia to track hits and misses from Earth, such as bee zappers, reading plaques, filtered reality, and subvocal computer interfaces.


Earth takes a long-range view of Earth's past, as shown in this reading from the novel:

 

 A Tale of the new-born Earth:


TaleNewBornEarth

What follows is a new Reading Group discussion guide -- for the classroom or for groups seeking some fun questions to ponder. A downloadable PDF of this guide can also be found on my website.


== Reader's Guide Discussion Questions About EARTH ==


--Do you consider Earth a realistic vision of our near future? Did you find it believable? What struck you in Earth about the way people speak, dress, travel and communicate?


--Is the author trying to predict the way things truly will be … or to warn about things we should avoid?Gedankenexperiment The term ‘gedankenexperiment’ refers to a thought experiment that explores possible consequences of our actions. Does that term fit Earth?


--Does Earth depict a utopic future, a dystopic warning…or a mix? Which of those three is most like real life?


--Think of other novels or movies, such as Dr. Strangelove, On the Beach, or Twelve Monkeys that warned about dire future scenarios. How does Earth compare to these stories?


--What cataclysms (man-made or natural) may have the capacity to change our planet’s future? What cataclysms in earth’s past had profound, extinction-level consequences?


RecipePlanet


--Is the planet itself a character in the book? If so, have you seen this done anywhere else?

  • How does the author present the vast span of earth’s history? Scientifically? Artistically?

blackhole_42--The black hole in the earth might be viewed as the ultimate form of pollution from human arrogance. Is this the way the reader keeps viewing it as the plot develops?


--In New Zealand, Alex contemplates, “We all create monsters in our minds. The only important difference may be which of us let our monsters become real.” What do you think?


--Who are the real villains in the novel? What do they want? What empowers them?


--“Light is the scourge of evil.” What was the significance of the Helvetian War to end the “evils of secrecy”? How do Brin’s concepts of transparency and accountability echo in news today, particularly in the banking world? See also Brin's nonfiction, The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force us to choose between Privacy and Freedom?


glass_photos4-580-75--How have concepts of privacy changed under the “all intrusive eye of the Net?” In Earth, has technology (such as True-Vu goggles) empowered posses of elderly vigilantes – and oppressed the young? Did you find this surprising ordisturbing?


--How does Earth portray climate changes affecting earth’s ecosystems?

  • What is the significance of the Life preservation Arks?
  • What types of large-scale geo-engineering projects are being tried in Earth to modify earth’s climate? Might we try some of these in the future?

--Is some of the plot driven by good people who disagree?


--Two women strive to represent the planet. How do Jen and Daisy differ? Where do they overlap?


282741682826113832_pli79vF8_b--What is the significance of that first biblical commandment, to Name the Beasts, to “observe God’s works, and glorify Him by giving names to all things”? How does this relate to science and the joy of discovery?  What was the importance of the Voyager spacecraft?


--Earth has been credited with accurately predicting some elements, such as wearable computing, Virtual Reality glasses, blogs, reading plaques (tablets), an early version of web pages, sea level rise, as well as global warming. Does that fact lend it credibility in your eyes?

  • Which other predictions do you think may come to pass?
  • In what areas has technology veered in an unexpected direction? Which predictions are off-mark?

--“A hallmark of sanity is the courage to face even unpleasant points of view.”

  • Brin presents a definition of sanity that involves flexibility, satiability, empathy and the ability to realistically estimate the consequences of one’s actions.
  • How do you define sanity?

4--Jen comments, “Each of us is many. Within every human, a cacophony of voices rages.” Neuroscientists speak of the “multimind” theory – that the human mind is composed of many small minds. Have you ever felt your brain function this way?


--U.S. coins read “E pluribus unum” -- From many, one. An “emergent” trait a complex system that is more than the sum of its parts. How does this relate to Jen’s ideas of consciousness?


--What is the role of intelligence on planet earth? Can the earth be likened to a living organism? Look up the Gaia Hypothesis. Why do some biologists take this notion seriously?

  • lovelock.newLookAt.en.couvWhat is the difference between the “strong” and “weak” Gaia hypotheses?
  • In Earth, is there a transformation between the strong and weak Gaia hypotheses?

--The author notes, “Earth suggests that it is too late to choose a simple pastoral lifestyle for humanity…. that we must take up the challenge of being scientific and ethical managers of a vast planetary ecosystem.” Do you agree or disagree?


--Recall Jen’s conversation with Nelson. Are cooperation and competition really two sides of the same coin? How do these forces operate in both the natural and manmade world?


KurzweilSingularityCover--Seek the common thread among the various definitions of a “singularity”:


1) a gravitational singularity, or black hole;

2) a mathematical singularity, or a sudden discontinuity in a function;

3) a technological singularity, or the emergence of true artificial intelligence; and

4) a cultural singularity, or a rapid acceleration of super-human intelligence that profoundly changes our civilization.


dust--“Change can’t be prevented, only guided.” How do the characters in Earth seek to guide change? How do leaders around the world today seek to do so?


--What do you foresee as the great innovation that will save mankind – or improve our future on planet earth?


--Did this novel affect how you view the literary genre called "science fiction"?


--Some fictional explorations take our own world and tweak just one thing to see what happens; as in all Michael Crichton tales. Others take you to a distant future, constrained only by physical law, when society may be transformed and we meet strange minds. Earth lies in the near-intermediate territory, showing a mostly familiar world undergoing a broad wavefront of changes. Which kind of idea exploration interests you more.


--Do you plan to read more of this kind of speculation about our near-intermediate future?


See the new page for Earth on my website.

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