Obama may retain his Presidential Office but I imagine that he is going to lose the popular vote. The main reason is the lackluster performance of the economy however there are others and an example is his recent conversion to support Gay marriage where as before he supported civil unions.
Every time that Gay Marriage has had a people's referendum, it has lost. Thirty five states have banned it, most in general elections.
The Supreme Court is going to rule on the legality of California's Prop 8 which the Ninth Circuit Court ruled as unconstitutional. As usually the case, a portion of the issue has been brought into play and that is the section of Prop 8 that dissolves all same sex marriages performed before Prop 8 but make no mistake, the attempt is to have the entire admendment struck down,
There are all sort of people who do not want to see Gay marriage. This includes observant Jews, Religious Blacks and for that matter of fact Blacks in general, and Christians (not just fundamentalists).
I don't object to Gay marriage but I am not a champion for it because I am a Democrat and this issue will work against the Party.
President Obama did not gain one vote by advocating Gay marriage but probably lost a number of swing voters.
While I don't oppose Gay marriage I have this strange sensation that this is the kind of thing that was going on when Rome fell.
I am not a lawyer but I can count. At best I figure the Supreme Court will overturn the Ninth Circuit with a minimum vote of five in favor.
There are good reasons for this. The first is that America is a democracy and election are for the people and not the Court. The second is that there is nothing about marriage in the Constitution which means the the laws governing it are wholly up to the States.
The swing vote in five to four decisions has been Justice Kennedy but he is the staunchest supporter of States rights the Court has had in decades.
The suit brought by opponents argues the Fourteenth Amendment which often deals with incorporations and marriage under the law is a form of incorporation. This is stretching the amendment too far.
Making law is not the the function of the Court. it is up to each state to decide, not the Supreme Court or the Ninth Circuit, the most overturned Circuit Court in the Country
Also, Gays may get married in a state but that does not mean it will be recognized in another