Deborah Young

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JANUARY 14, 2010 11:52AM

Overpopulation? Have a baby! Have two!

Rate: 26 Flag

Weathermen and Economists have always had the best jobs. They get to be wrong over 50% of the time and still keep their jobs and their 401(k)'s. To add to that short list would be professors who churn out books filled with made-up data created to scare the bejesus out of us, then go on to enjoy the book tour, then the book is debunked yet they still have their cushy job and tenure.

Sucks to be us, eh?

Remember the book on overpopulation in the late sixties? Oh what was that called? Oh yes! The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich. He promised us we would experience famines between 1970 and 1985 due to population growth outstripping resources. Promised that in the 1970's and 1980's hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in spite of any programs embarked on immediately. He discusssed his solution to the overpopulation: "compulsory birth regulation...through the addition of temporary sterilants to water supplies or staple food. Doses of the antidote would be carefully rationed by the government to produce the desired family size." Go into any bathroom in the late sixties and throughout the seventies and you'd find that well-thumbed book there.

forest

His book and Soylent Green are still used as the basis to shout " overpopulation!" in a crowded theatre and to blame innocent, everyday human beings minding their own business of creating all kinds of horrors like famine, global warming, climate change, poverty, crime. But with the advent of computers, computer models and crunching the numbers, overpopulation has been debunked. Over and over. Only to rear its ugly head whenever there is a dictator creating famine and poverty and wants to distract you from his culpability or a government that wants to tax you to oblivion.

Even though the New York Times rightly listed it as "one of the myths of the 20th century" in its January 1, 2000 Millennium Edition, it's a myth that just won't die.

As Abid Ullah Jan writes, over the years many researchers have authentically proved that the problem is not too many people at all. World population growth is rapidly declining. United Nations figures showed in 2003 that 79 countries that comprise 40% of the worlds population had fertility rates too low to prevent population decline.

Overpopulation, he points out, is a relative term. Over with respect to what? Food? Resources? Living Space? The data shows that no case can be made for overpopulation with respect to all three variables. It is true that the world has been experiencing a population increase that began in the eighteenth century. Population rose six-fold in the next 200 years. But this is an increase, not an explosion because it has been accompanied by a productivity explosion, a resource explosion, a food explosion, an information explosion, a communication explosion, a science explosion and a medical explosion.

The result is that the six-fold increase in world population is dwarfed by the eighty-fold increase in world output during the same 200 year period.

That is the part that the Overpopulation Hysterics always overlook. People change, grow and evolve. Systems are put into place to cope with larger populations. We are not a static humanity. We invent things. We are made up of both the mundane and divine. Yet the Population Alarmists can't get their mind around that. It's always just an endgame to them.

Paul Erlich started the overpopulation hysteria with his book that scared people with its prophesies of starvation, death and destruction. However, the exact opposite has occurred.

Fewer than half as many people die from famine each year now than a century ago, even though our population has quadrupled. Many of those deaths today are the direct result of politcal action by ruthless dictators and not a lack of food. As Abid points out, to put it simply "the hungry are hungry because they are excluded from the land or cannot earn enough to survive and not because of a natural limit to the amount of food that can be produced." Lord Peter Bauer of the London School of Economics pointed out that the so-called "population explosion" of the 20th century should be seen "as a blessing rather than a disaster, because it stems from a fall in mortality, a prima facie improvement in people's welfare."

Amartya Sen, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1998 argues that famines in the Third World are not caused by actual food shortages but institutional failure. The great famine of Bangladesh in 1974 occurred in a year of greater food availability per head than in any other year between 1971 and 1976. Instead it was the Bangladesh Government that owned 40% of the industry and regulated with price controls and high taxes administered by a huge, corrupt, foreign-aid dependent bureaucracy that caused the famine. The problems were caused by that country's flawed domestic policies, not too many people. The same can be said of Africa today. It is like putting on golden handcuffs when you turn your own freedom and power over to a neglectful, soul-less, unaccountable entity called government.

The 7.0 earthquake that struck just off the coast of Haiti Tuesday hit a country that was in bad enough shape already. The poorest nation in the western hemisphere, Haitians have suffered in recent decades through multiple coup d’etats and the breakdown of law and order, as well as poverty and hunger. Obviously, a 7.0 quake is bad news in general, but it’s especially so for people who live in shantytowns and can’t count on their government for relief or support - thus was Big Salons headline Tuesday, a perfect real-time example of a country that doesn't need to be impoverished but is, due to nothing more than government corruption.

The West only enables evil and dictatorships when it calls government corruption "overpopulation" and "global warming". Call evil what it is. We don't live in a finite world; for every problem there are always several solutions which don't involve taxing the citizenship into poverty or paying farmers not to grow nutritious food.

John N. Doggett sums it up succinctly. "The problem is not that there are too many of us. We can produce enough food to feed 6 billion to 16 billion. The problem is that governments in far too many countries care more about maintaining political power than the well-being of their people."

Government corruption and callousness has turned many natural resource "rich" countries into poor countries. Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and the Congo are examples of natural resource rich countries whose corrupt, anticapitalistic policies have consigned most of their citizens to lives of grinding poverty. Chile, who used to be in those ranks, has moved on. Chile's war on corruption, investment in its people and downsizing of its government has made all the difference. If every country adopted the Chilean model, poverty as we know it would be eliminated by the end of this century.

What about the starving people? They do exist and their suffering is totally unnecessary. Doggett points out that not only the United States but Japan and Western Europe pay farmers not to produce food. If American, Candadian, Latin American and Western European farmers were encouraged to plant as much as possible and process as much as possible, the world would drown in food.

You want number crunching? If you gave every person on Planet Earth an acre of land, Europe, Asia, Africa and half of Latin America and North America would be empty. Antigrowth arguments that we are running out of land are just plain wrong. The vast majority of the planet's inhabitable surface is empty of human inhabitants. Demographers have calculated that the entire world population in 1984 could have fit into the state of Texas, allotting 1500 square feet per person.

So go ahead, have a baby! Have two!

 

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Next you'll say the articles in the New York Times, Time Magazine, Newsweek, and The Washington Post in the mid seventies on global cooling and the coming ice age were wrong.
Fascinating piece, Deborah. And incidentally, I have 2.
R
I have been wanting to write something about this as well, so THANK YOU!!

I am so utterly sick to death of hearing about how overpopulation is the problem when this is false bullshit used to distract people from the REAL problem, which is that a tiny percentage of very powerful people own most of the wealth and resources and don't want to share like their kindergarten teacher taught them to.

If they could privatize air and charge us to breathe it they would do so, and then they would probably claim there wasn't enough of it to go around because there's too many people and they'd use that to jack up the prices and keep people afraid and obedient.
We are going to see wars for water in the near future? WTF are you talking about?

Also you're not taking into account that people are going to be living far longer not too much into the future. We are running out of resources to make our computers and cell phones. You are just completely off mark on nearly everything!

Another great headline OS! Lol... Next you'll head Milton Friedmans Capitalism and Freedom. I have no idea that Salon was a neoliberal publication...
wow - great coverage of this important topic!
Rated.
WFP: 1 Billion Hungry People in World
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-2009-11-14-voa10-70423732.html
Who blamed overpopulation for the disaster in Haiti? Besides you? Pat Robertson, Rush Limbuagh and Deborah Young using the suffering of others to serve their own personal points of view.
You're right. Overpopulation is not the problem; rather it's the distribution of resources and wealth, most of which is controlled and owned by 2% of the population!

As Napoleon so rightly said, " Only religion keeps the poor from murdering the rich." Of course, control is/was the main reason behind religion in the first place! As the Catholic Church said, in league with rulers and the wealthy, "poverty is a virtue".
And another thing: As John N. Doggett said, "The problem is that governments in far too many countries care more about maintaining political power than the well-being of their people." This is a worldwide problem and growing.....corrupt governments and leaders who are completely out of touch with the realities of daily life, nor do they care. Think of our Congress, filled with millionaires getting wealthier! On the other hand, people worldwide put up with this ridiculous situation....so we get what we deserve!
Excellent, well written post. No accusations, no threats, no name calling. Just information - examples of both sides. Refreshingly different from some others out there.
Beautifully done.
I'm off to have some kids!
Excellent contribution Deborah. You make good points. I'm with Lorelei on this issue. We need more equal distribution of the earth's resources.

Less gov't is not necessarily the problem. It's corrupt governments that are the problem. Unfortunately, most countries are run by Plutocracies that support the status quo.
Good post, but the issue is not that you could fit the world's population into the state of Texas, the issue is whaqt does it take to SUPPORT a population in terms of food and jobs.

Those who produce provide for those who do not. One million people with jobs cannot support a billion people who are unemployed even if the planet could support them. Resources could be better allocated, but the fact is that the world IS overpopulated.
Hi Lorelei: But they have figured out a way to tax the air we breathe [or emit]: "The US Environmental Protection Agency on 12/7 issued a formal finding that greenhouse gasses including carbon dioxide emissions "threaten the public health and welfare of the American people," clearing the way for the agency to regulate a wide range of CO2-emitting industries under provisions of the Clean Air Act."

Guess who emits CO2? Human beings. So now this clears the way for the Gov't to call us dangerous to the planet. Outrageous, callous and dangerous.
Brazil and India have been following the neoliberal dogma for some time, if you don't like the condition those countries are in, blame neoliberalism...
Tinker Bell, Pinochet and The Fairy Tale Miracle of Chile
http://www.gregpalast.com/tinker-bell-pinochet-and-the-fairy-tale-miracle-of-chile-2/
Food shortages or institutional failure: the result is the same. Too many people. More people than the societies in total can or are willing to support. Supporting existing populations would require a redistribution of resources, something Wall Street is not about to agree to. And we all know that the bankers rule the real world. Them and the Church. So thank your god for the suffering of real people while we keep them ignorant about birth control.
I somewhat agree with certain premises of your article. However I noticed that it seems you're minimizing the ability of these progressive achievements (of productivity and output) to sustain themselves indefintiely at the expense of the entire (eco)systems.
Not to mention you gloss over colonial and post colonial liability by placing blame on the symtom "evil dictatorships" instead of acknowledging the root cause: colonial interest in supressing a state emerging from a successsful insurrection against slavery. Cuba's situation is similar in as far as that they had grandiose plans for a more equal society, but instead had to devote a huge effort into militarism and offsetting choking sanctions thanks to the more recent implementations of the Monroe Doctrine on their efforts. They have been made example of, and the deformations that exist in Cuba and in Haiti would not be of the same proportions if outside forces had accepted their revolutions the way outside forces accepted our own American Revolution. It's an example of a double standard, and racism.
I found the anti-capitalist arguments counter-intuitive and neglectful of the truth. One major "anti-capitalist" activity, the nationalization of the copper industry that went on in Chile under socialist president Allende, was the only socialist policy I'm aware of that was not reversed under Pinochet, leading to national control of their own natural resources and your subsequent perception of wealth and virtue.
I suggest you take ownership of your possibly unconscious sense of privledge implied by the positions you advocated in writing this post by investigating the colonial legacy that has enabled it from the perspective of it's victims. I found Eduardo Galleano's "Open Veins..." very moving.
Lastly, please consider that when luck runs out, nobody forwards us a note ahead of time. Hubris is driving this mentality and if the timeline of catastrophe was premature(on Ehrlich's pronouncements and the NYT's dismissal), it's not to say many many people out there sense that this is not a sustainable paradigm we exist in, accepting that catastrophe is only a matter of time if things continue on in the very static way they have politically after the cold war ended. Have kids anyways, and lets act like we care about their quality of life, even if they don't or can't join the elite ranks of society. That's responsibility.
Even if we can produce enough food to feed 16 billion people, does that mean that we WANT 16 people billion people?

Personally, I believe that much of the environmental damage that we see on Earth, including the extinction of many species of animals are directly related to the sheer amounts of humans - and the related human "progress" on this planet.

Also, your argument supposes that humans are cooperative which we are not. Like any other mammal we fight and kill each other for limited resources and it is not in our nature to share resources equally. And our nature is not going to change any time soon.

And, much of the land on Earth is not currently suitable to sustain humans, so if you're going to hand out an acre of land to each human please make sure that the acre I get isn't covered with ice, sand or rock and that there is access to fresh water.
You are seriously misinformed.
"The vast majority of the planet's inhabitable surface is empty of human inhabitants." There is plenty of space and land to go around.
Also - to get politically incorrect about this - as the human population ages what we end up with is more and more dead weight.

With any other animal population the old and infirm can't survive, and so the resources needed to sustain that population are used to make sure that the young and healthy are made strong in order to pass on the best genes.

With humans, the opposite is true. We expend enormous resources making sure that the old hang on as long as possible, and that the sick are kept alive as long as possible. Granted, this stems from our supposed intelligence and compassion. And truthfully, I also want to live a long life, and if my child were sick I'd want to expend all necessary resources to keep her alive.

But, from a biological perspective - since this has really only been the case over the last 100 years or so - I'm curious as to the long term implications of this practice - essentially using our intelligence to "outsmart" natural selection so that a human race consisting more and more of "non-workers" or consumers can increasingly dominate the Earth and other animal species.
I think the issue of "idea" population targets cannot be separated from the issue of what lifestyle people are supposed to want. Do people all want to drive big cars and have big houses in American suburb type houses? I don't just mean all Americans; I mean all people on earth.

Is that possible given current population level? Are such expectations and their universalization achievable in the future given current population trends?

If not, how do we tell the rest of the world that our living standards are destined to be but a dream to them? If the world wants what we have (which is generally assumed by conservative types and probably half-true) then something has to give. Or at least it seems so to me.

I do not think population controls are the answer, but I do think we need to allow the current trend toward zero growth in the west and slowing growth in developing countries to continue. I don't think even a slight negative trend would be damaging. It is not as if there was an epidemic of aloneness caused loneliness one hundred years ago.
You chose the wrong model. Haiti's population grew 42% in the last 10 years. It the most densely populated country in the western hemisphere and the poorest.

Had the US's population grown at the same rate, we'd have a population of 400M -- 25% more that we have today. We have, on the global scale of things, a pretty good gov't and we can't get health care for everyone. Imagine another 100 million kids needing check-ups and vaccinations, not to mention schooling.

When the US started getting into biofuels, world food prices spiked. Imagine what they'd do if we were feeding 100 million more mouths.

When I was a Peace Corp volunteer in the '80s, Haiti's population was less than 60% of what it is now and I travelled widely without
seeing a whole lot of good land that wasn't used.

There were some breathtaking vistas of rugged, white cliffs plunging to a turquoise sea. There were some stretches of rolling hills that turned to such beautifully subtle shades of purple, pink and khaki as the sun was setting, punctuated by sparse, desert sedges. There was a lovely mist hovering over the few patches of tropical rainforest left at the tops of the highest mountains. Scenery, sure they had it. Arable land? No.

Haiti's name comes from the Taino word for mountains. You can't import tractors and expect to farm Haiti's steep hillsides the way you farm the flat plains of Illinois. There used to be stories of farmers who fell off their corn fields to their death. Maybe rumor, but an illustration of the extent to which farming was extended to very marginal land.

Further, it's not just corrupt gov't that's the problem in Haiti. Lack of education is a huge issue. There are few natural resources and few human resources. An exemplary gov't would have a very hard time making that into anything resembling a success.

My experience living for two years in Haiti leaves me firmly convinced that tackling population growth is the best thing that could be done for the planet and its people.
An appallingly simplistic essay on a very complicated subject.

Let's take just one of your statements: "The result is that the six-fold increase in world population is dwarfed by the eighty-fold increase in world output during the same 200 year period."

Please refer to the woes of the Indian farmers who have adapted our Western style of agriculture. This story is just the tip of a looming global environmental catastrophe.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/1500-farmers-commit-mass-suicide-in-india-1669018.html

Also there are innumerable stories on the toxic run-off of our fertilizer usage in the West. Why don't you read up on that? We are killing the oceans, slowly but surely. Maybe that doesn't fit into your fun blog here.

The truth is, no one knows how many humans—in what lifestyle—the planet can sustain. The one fact that is plain is that we in this country consume more than the 2nd and 3rd Worlds put together.

You say keep having babies, there's plenty of room. Have you been to Calcutta? China? Have you been to the densely populated places we already have? Do you want to live, without relief, like that? I don't, and I am repulsed by foolish rants like yours, from uninformed minds who will run us right into a stressful existence on spaceship Earth.
"The vast majority of the planet's inhabitable surface is empty of human inhabitants. There is plenty of space and land to go around."

True, if we can count your backyard as uninhabited habitable space. And your living room. You could fit two families in there. We could cut down the national forests after all other open space -- and the plant and animal life it supports is gone. Do you want to?

There are plenty of examples in history of island nations where human civilization disappeared after they destroyed their resources. Do you trust that we'll now when we've reached the limit? You don't seem to trust the current best estimates of the earth's future.
I know squat about population science or politics. My issue is: if people go ahead and have more babies, what are our agreed-upon societal standards for caring for the babies that those people can't afford?

In this nation - the wealthiest in the world - we have kids dying of hunger, living in the streets and coping with situations in which their parents are unable to care for them while earning a living. Is that OK? Wouldn't it get worse if population growth were encouraged? Wouldn't it get better if we had real sex ed for teens, and actually encouraged young women to wait to have 2, 3, 4 kids until they themsleves become adults?

Can we stomach child beggars in the streets like in some parts of the 3rd world? Or are we willing to pony up and move some of our budget from war to the programs that could help children - like universal, public early childhood education, and expanded social programs? My guess is that our society would have little interest in doing those things....

Interesting topic and well written post.
"The impression of the typical air passenger that he is looking down on a mostly empty earth is correct."

Do human beings belong to the natural world? If so, we have just as much right to exist as do snail darters and seals. In a world where there is plenty of food poorly distributed and the potential of producing many times more food than we have already, shouldn't we feed people rather than eliminate them?

Proponents of population control are not arguing that there are too many people in the world. They are arguing that there are too many OTHER people in the world. Population alarmists divide the human race into the valuable part, which deserves to live, and the worthless part, which doesn't. The first tenant of their creed is that they themselves belong to the "valuable" group.

I'm a proponent of all humanity, who have the right to exist and to exist in comfort.
Institutional failure: Imagine that you actually need to point that out. What I've discovered, and you've ably illustrated, is that since we humans can't (read:"won't") fix the institutions we've developed to run our societies, since we Westerners feel compelled to make conpromises with leaders who literally and figuratively rape and pillage their countries, and since we Americans can't imagine living without whatever it is that makes corporate shenanigans so appealing, it's easier to blame the folks themselves who experience poverty, famine and whatnot than to blame institutions, corporations, or corrupt leaders. Bad poor people -- it's their fault!
You somehow, from your misbegotten, supposed thought processes write:
"Proponents of population control are not arguing that there are too many people in the world. They are arguing that there are too many OTHER people in the world. "

You have GOT to be kidding.
"I'm a proponent of all humanity, who have the right to exist and to exist in comfort."

But where is it written that all humans have the "right" to exist and not just exist but do so in "comfort"? And do other mammals have this same right?

I think as mammals we have the same "right" to exist as does a polar bear - and that is none. We exist as a species because we are able to gather the necessary resources to ensure our continued existence. If that changes, or if we somehow kill ourselves off (nuclear war, biological agent, etc.), who can we expect to enforce this "right" to exist?

And comfort? Mother Nature sure doesn't guarantee comfort (watch March of the Penguins). Most conceptions of God don't imply humans are entitled to comfort (Adam and Eve were expelled from the Garden and destined to live "by the sweat of their brow" and in "pain").

Your ideas are idealistic and that's fine. I long for the day when human "ideals" are manifested in reality, but I believe that's a long way off because of people like ME, whose nature is still closer to that of an animal (fight for resources and hoard them for me and those close to me) than it is to that of a compassionate god who care equally for all humans. And I suspect that most humans, whether they admit it or not are also like that (if you're not, please look at your lifestyle and how it compares to that of the poorest in the world and make the necessary adjustments if you dare).
Countries that care so little for their citizens that they allow them to live in poverty and starve is the first problem. Ignoring the plight of those countries (or pretending the problems don't exist) is the second. I'm glad we don't al have to end up living in Texas, though Great post Deborah.
This is a prime example of using a handful of facts to prop up a flawed hypothesis. I agree that the main cause of famine is institutional but starvation is only one symptom of over population.

What about environmental damage, potable water, infrastructure, and depleting precious fossil fuels, to name just a few/

"If you gave every person on Planet Earth an acre of land, Europe, Asia, Africa and half of Latin America and North America would be empty." You assume that all the land on the earth is habitable.

I'll bet you think Global Climate Change is just some Al Gore PowerPoint thingy too.
No need for enforced contraception in the third world to ensure that we only grow 'quality' people, as one of the posters above said. The best form of contraception ever devised turns out to be wealth. Give women opportunities and the birth rate plummets.

By the way, some of the most overpopulated places in the world are doing OK - I'm looking at you, Holland and Belgium.

But the posters who talk about the quality of land are right. If you look at the numbers (22 million, for a land mass the size of continental US), Australia looks distinctly under populated. However, much of this is desert and the available arable land has become degraded because of population pressures.
"The best form of contraception ever devised turns out to be wealth."

I agree with this, but until human nature changes I don't think we will be able to bring wealth to even a majority of the 7 billion inhabitants of Earth.

But incidentally, Mother Nature has her own way of controlling animal populations, and when humans get to be too many she steps in and causes large numbers of us to die off by starvation, disease, etc. So, we can either use our human intelligence to maintain a balance with our environment or allow nature to do it for us - I'll let you guess which method will be prettier.
Wow- Deborah- I give you full marks for bravery. I don't know if I could tackle such controversial topics. I don't know as much as I'd like to on the subject, but I don't think the Earth's resources are limitless. That said- forced birth control or sterilization or other draconian population control methods are verrrrrry problematic. And the tone of a lot of these things is: "Would those dirty ignorant poor people just stop breeding?! It's so gross!" Also problematic. Though, in some places, women have little choice over how many children they have because birth control is not widely available or condemned by their religion. Lot of sticky issues here. Oh- and I agree about corrupt governments being the cause of a lot of problems - I've read about countries with starving populations- and donated food ended up rotting in warehouses because of the corrupt and inept government. Maddening.
Deborah,

I am digesting a lot of material here. I agree of a lot of the facts you present, but I am not sure I see the entire hypothesis. In other words, I think both may be true - we need to be concerned about population AND all you mention here.

Most of all, I appreciate how artfully you have presented it. Thank you, I will digest it further and see how it settles.
Incidentally Deborah,

Although I disagree with your post, I applaud you for posting an opinion that was bound to be controversial - OS needs more of that!

:)
Why thank you fins2theleft, that's very nice of you. That's one of the things I like about Open Salon, the chance to discuss real-time issues and how they affect us and with research and facts that back up opinions.
People are so inventive...let's see if they can create another planet to house the estimated 9 billion people we'll have by 2050.

The population problem is really not with the poor countries... It's us "developed folks" disproportionately trashing our planet. Your 1 or 2 little brats will create more waste and destruction then 10 Peruvian children. In fact, go ahead and have 20 like the Duggards. Let's not take responsibility for our choices, and rely completely on our ability to re-mediate as opposed to prevent.
Aunt Mabel: '... Global resource management would seem to call for mandatory birth control in the third world and reproduction in the first world. Of course, this will never realistically happen. ...'

Much easier to just move the Third-Worlders to the First World. And this has the virtue of already happening; no 'mandatory' required.
I don't know about the case of Haiti, but... have you factored the "realities" of Peak Oil into your analysis? I ask you to consider that so much of the resource explosion (food explosion, medicine explosion, etc) that has accompanied the human population increase has been enabled by cheap oil. What happens when/if there's no more cheap oil? (emphasis on the 'cheap' ~ ie: easily obtained & utilized)

Also, there is such a concept as 'carrying capacity' - of any given environment for any given species population. My belief is that the concept applies to human beings as well as to the animal & bacterial kingdoms.
Thank you for this! Finally, someone is addressing the "myth" of overpopulation. I wrote similar thoughts in response to Stellaa's "breeder" article from last week (in response not to her but to a rather nasty commenter who insisted that people who bring children into this world are selfish and irresponsible and he doesn't owe them or society anything, harrumph. The argument of overpopulation of course came up).

It would be nice to see stats on deaths vs. births in the world and see which is truly outpacing the other.

And yes, government corruption/mismanagement of resources is a large reason - if not the only reason - many citizens are not getting adequate food, shelter, clothing and so the rest of us cry (mostly in the West I find) "overpopulation!"
Here's some more food for thought: "Are Humans Smarter Than Yeast?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM1x4RljmnE
You're preaching to the choir over here. xox
Well written and thought out piece. I will be using it in my Geography, World History, Economics, and Ethics classes.

On another note, is the waterfall picture Silver Falls in Oregon? It sure does look like it.
I have a relative who is about 60 and brags that every time someone announces that they are having a baby, she says, "I'm sorry." She goes on about overpopulation. She is smart enough to think past the hype, but never wanted a baby (no problem to me), so she found what seemed to be a scientific reason to support what she wanted to do anyway. And she shares it with everyone.
I don't know exactly what government policies should be, and (though some have gotten mad at me) I don't know what to think about global warming. I don't have enough of a scientific background to judge. I have, though, noticed that even in my 32 years, the world was supposed to end 100 times already in my life time. And we are here. I suspect that what will end us is something we never would have guessed, because I never would have guessed the worst events of my own life.
Good post. I might copy it for my relative. :)
I will add that I agree with what someone said as far as wealth (and CHOICE) being one of the best forms of birth control. I don't agree with a society forcibly limiting births (they claim now that China and India will have more males than females...we'll see how this plays out), but I do think women and men deserve education and a choice.
I guess I should say that I don't know if I agree with the complete line of logic for everything you've said....I don't feel educated enough to judge...but it does seem simplistic for people to say that overpopulation is going to end the world, end of discussion. For one small 'silver-lining' example, many talk about fertilizers and chemicals and the problem with growing enough food. I just interviewed a professor who mentioned how much food can be grown organically from a 4 ft by 4 ft plot. Less fertilizers would improve the dead zone in the Gulf. Also, he said that they have found that it isn't farms that are the main contributor to the dead zone, it is individuals who fertilize their lawns. If people had a less individualistic aim to many of their actions and thought as a community or a global community, we could improve many problems. There are a lot of solutions in our reach.
Ehrlich was wrong about many things, but you ignore completely the one problem that can't be fixed that results from overpopulation: an extinction crisis that threatens much of the world's biodiversity. In 1900, tigers were a nuisance in India, today most populations within the country (and in the rest of the world) are threatened with extinction. High human populations and the pests that hitchhike with them are causing the world's flora and fauna to be homogenized via invasions of exotics. This is one problem that does not have a simple techno fix. Yes, we could likely support a world with 16 billion humans, but that would be about all that exists with us other than our crops, rats, roaches, and kudzu. Not a world I would want to see.
Go ahead and have a baby, maybe even two of them. I did. But think about the quality of life this planet will offer them before you do.

With the world confronting a host of major crises relating to climate, energy, severe poverty, food, the global economy and political instability, why should anyone be concerned about population? Virtually all of the major problems that confront the world today relate in some critical way to population growth.

While public concern about rapid population growth has subsided in recent decades, world population is still growing at about 80 million people a year. If current trends persist, there will 2.5 billion more people on the planet by mid-century, bringing the total to about 9.2 billion. That projected population growth raises a host of questions about the future of humanity and the planet we inhabit.

So will we be able to feed 9.2 billion people? This year, for the first time in history, over 1 billion people go to bed hungry every day. High food prices and the global economic recession have pushed 100 million more people than last year into chronic hunger and poverty. And, looking ahead, we know that climate change, rising energy prices, and growing water scarcity will make it harder, not easier, to grow the crops necessary to feed an expanding population. Mounting soil erosion and the loss of farm land will also add to the challenge of boosting food production, as will collapsing fisheries.

And it’s not just food that’s potentially in short supply. Water scarcity is a growing concern. In many parts of the world today, major rivers at various times of the year no longer reach the ocean. In some areas, lakes are going dry and underground water aquifers are being rapidly depleted. And climate change, of course, will make the water situation even more critical. Drier areas will be more prone to drought, wetter areas more prone to flooding, and the summer runoff from snowpack and glaciers will diminish.

As food, water, and other resources are strained by the escalating demands of a growing world population, the number of environmental refugees in the world will rise…and so will the potential for conflict and civil war.

Fortunately, there is a simple strategy that will help to address all these problems: provide universal access to voluntary family planning and reproductive health services. There are over 100 million women in the world today who want to space or limit their pregnancies, but who lack knowledge of, or access to, modern methods of contraception. By educating and empowering women, and giving them access to family planning services, we can strengthen families, fight poverty, preserve the environment, and help achieve a world population that can live sustainably on this planet.
http://www.populationinstitute.org/
I think you underestimate the low-hanging fruit. The average income is Haiti is estimated at $1.50 a day. And this is an average, meaning many people will make less than that.

Sex is free and one of the few pleasures the desperately poor have. Birth control costs money. And it needs to be used every time.

On that little money, people regularly chose to focus on today's problems spending their money solving today's problems (a little more food for the family) not tomorrow's (preventing the birth of another child to feed). These weren't bad choices, they were desperate choices.

Sure, there were birth control campaigns. When I lived in Haiti, once every 6 months or so, there might be some reproductive health campaign that gave away condoms -- about 3 per family. I heard some women once got the chance to have a shot that lasted 3 months.

A simple calendar-based rhythm method requires calendars and writing utensils, neither of which was guaranteed to be found in my neighbors' homes.

Most importantly, the rhythm method requires the health and nutrition levels that make a woman's periods regular. Again, you couldn't assume this.

My guess is every poor country has families in the same boat. Making substantial strides in reducing population growth doesn't require coercive measures. It can be done by making BC free to all women and men who want it and can't afford it, no matter what country they live in.
"In a world where there is plenty of food poorly distributed and the potential of producing many times more food than we have already, shouldn't we feed people rather than eliminate them?" asks Deborah Young.

"Global hunger could be directly attributed to meat-eating," insists rock superstar and animal activist Chrissie Hynde.

Half the world's population does not receive an adequate amount of food to eat. Ten to twenty million die annually of hunger and its effects. The Institute for Food and Development Policy reports that, "Forty thousand children starve to death on this planet every day," or one child every two seconds.

The livestock population of the United States today consumes enough grain and soybeans to feed over five times the entire human population of the country. We feed these animals over 80% of the corn we grow, and over 95% of the oats. Less than half the harvested agricultural acreage in the United States is used to grow food for people. Most of it is used to grow livestock feed.

Ronald J. Sider of Evangelicals for Social Action, in his 1977 book, Rich Christians in an Age of Hunger, pointed out that 220 million Americans were eating enough food (largely because of the high consumption of grain-fed livestock) to feed over one billion people in the poorer countries.

The world's cattle alone, not to mention pigs and chickens, consume a quantity of food equal to the caloric needs of 8.7 billion people. It takes 16 pounds of grain to produce one pound of beef. According to Department of Agriculture statistics, one acre of land can grow 20,000 pounds of potatoes. That same acre of land, if used to grow cattlefeed, can produce less than 165 pounds of beef.

In his book, The Hungry Planet, Georg Bergstrom points out that protein-starved underdeveloped nations export more protein to wealthy nations than they receive. He calls this "the protein swindle." Ninety percent of the world's fish meal catch, for example, is exported to rich countries. One-third of Africa's peanut crop winds up in the stomachs of European livestock. Half the world's cereal crop is fed to livestock and the United States annually imports one million tons of vegetable protein from Third World nations--just to feed its farm animals.

Bergstrom writes: "Sometimes one wonders how many Americans and Western Europeans have grasped the fact that quite a few of their beef steaks, quarts of milk, dozens of eggs, and hundreds of broilers are the result, not of their agriculture, but of the approximately two million metric tons of protein, mostly of high quality, which astute Western businessmen channel away from the needy and hungry."

Jeremy Rifkin, author of a dozen influential books and President of the Foundation on Economic Trends, writes in his 1992 bestseller Beyond Beef:

"Cattle and other livestock are devouring much of the grain produced on the planet. It need be emphasized that this is a new phenomenon, unlike anything ever experienced before.

"Contrary to popular belief, the poor are getting poorer each year...Increased poverty has meant increased malnutrition. On the African continent, nearly one in every four human beings is malnourished. In Latin America, nearly one out of every seven people goes to bed hungry each night. In Asia and the Pacific, 28 percent of the people border on starvation, experiencing the gnawing pain of a perpetual hunger."

"In the Near East, one in ten people is underfed. Chronic hunger now affects upwards of 1.3 billion people, according to the world Health Organization--a statistic all the more striking in a world where one third of all the grain produced is being fed to cattle and other livestock. Never before in human history has such a large percentage of our species--nearly 25 percent--been malnourished.

"The transition of world agriculture from food grain to feed grains represents an...evil whose consequences may be far greater and longer lasting than any past examples of violence inflicted by men against their fellow human beings."

The Worldwatch Institute has released a remarkable report entitled Taking Stock: Animal Farming and the Environment, which lists nation after nation where food deprivation has followed the switch from a grain-based diet to a meat-based one.

Most of the nations importing grain from the United States were once self-sufficient in grain. The main reason they aren't is the rise in meat production and consumption.

Oxfam estimates that in Mexico, 80 percent of the children in rural areas are undernourished, yet the livestock are fed more grain than the human population eats! The livestock are exported of course, to satisfy the developed nations' craving for cheap hamburgers.

In the early '60s, sorghum was almost unknown in Mexico. But by 1980, it covered literally twice the acreage of wheat. Sorghum isn't grown for humans. It is fed to livestock. In the late '60s, livestock consumed only 6 percent of Mexico's grain. Today, the figure is over 50 percent.

In country after country the pattern is repeated. Livestock industries are consuming feed to such an extent that now almost all Third World nations must import grain. Seventy-five percent of Third World imports of corn, barley, sorghum, and oats are fed to animals, not to people. In country after country, the demand for meat among the rich is squeezing out staple production for the poor.

According to Buckminster Fuller, there are enough resources at present to feed, clothe, house and educate every human being on the planet at American middle class standards. The Institute for Food and Development Policy has shown that there is no country in the world in which the people cannot feed themselves from their own resources.

Moreover, there is no correlation between land density and hunger. China has twice as many people per cultivated acre as India, yet less of a hunger problem. Bangladesh has just one-half the people per cultivated acre that Taiwan has, yet Taiwan has no starvation, while Bangladesh has one of the highest rates in the world. The most densely populated countries in the world today are not India and Bangladesh, but Holland and Japan.

Many of us believe that hunger exists because there's not enough food to go around. But as Frances Moore Lappe' and her anti-hunger organization Food First! have shown, the real cause of hunger is a scarcity of justice, not a scarcity of food.
AnnS
MI
January 14th, 2010
10:25 am
The country is poor because it can not produce enough food to feed its population.

The country is poor because it has no natural resources from which to create things to sell in the international market in order to obtain money to buy food and shelter materials and healthcare for the population.

The country is poor because it has no natural resources (trees are basically gone) from which to even build shelter for the population.

It has a population density of 936 people per mile. 9,000,000 are crowded into that small space. That means if all the land were divided into equal amounts among the population, every person would have an area exactly 172 feet x 172 feet. And that much land can not produce enough food for them to survive - and forget about yielding raw materials with which to build structures.

Quite simply Haiti has become a barren land without the resources support its population - and suffers from gross over-population relative to the environment. ANd short of removing at least 80% of the people, the land can not support the population and the population can not afford to import goods. Perhaps birth control drugs need to be sent along with disaster rescue.

Contrary to the blatherings of most of the commentators, changing the government does NOT change any of those facts. what would the population do to earn money even if they had a governing system of which these commentators would approve? The answer is NOTHING. There is no way for the population of such an area to support themselves. What do they plan to educate all those people to do? Become investment bankers moving around non-existent money in the form of paper? Run an economy based upon giving each other vaccinations that they have to purchase from another country with non-existent money?

Too many people. Not enough land. Too few natural resources. A disasterous situation and a lesson in over-population. And changing governmental forms or rebuilding fancy public buildings does not change those facts.
I'm shocked that I know so little about this debate. Deborah, you did great research and opened many minds to an issue that yes was 'hot' in the 60's and 70's. I have not thought about it since and will study this article several times more before I can answer intelligently. But you also showed the value of thinking and research on Open Salon, a way of writing that I often do not see here. So good for you, and great that you set off such a debate. We are not all of one mind here and I look forward to thinking this one through, thanks for the fine writing and intense research. Rated.
I totally agree with you, and I did the math recently, the entire world population can now fit into the state of Texas with 600 square feet per person. Still a lot of room considering you can build apartment buildings to save space...you could even have streets stores and parks doing it that way. Over-population is a myth...poor management is not.
Someone brought up the Population Institute--and I realize that I just looked on one site, Charity Navigator--but they don't get a good efficiency rating for their expenses. It appears they have much administrative overhead, but if they are mostly policymakers, I guess it's to be expected....?
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=7080

At bottom, it is shown that other evaluators give them higher ratings.
The Population Institute focusses on study & policy, so rating it as a "charitable institution" seems a little odd, sort of like rating the Heritage Foundation or Brookings Institute.
Actually, Malthus got the discussion started on overpopulation long before Paul Ehrlich. But most people don’t even know who Malthus is, because, to the detriment of a sustainable Earth, discussing overpopulation is now politically incorrect. Overpopulation is at the core of water shortages, environmental degradation, poverty cycles, female inequality, natural resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, famines, wars and much more.

There are limits to growth in all systems. Real analysis clearly indicates that overpopulation is a problem. The writer does not appear to have a solid grasp of the topic and basic concepts such as carrying capacity of the planet and the concept of arable land; in short, many of the points made are just flat our wrong.

The “number crunching” in the article is faulty math. The writer neglects to mention how much of the land on Earth is completely unsuitable for habitation, unsuitable for growing crops or unsuitable for raising animals for food. Oh, and there’s the water issue around all those items. Oh, and thinking that there somehow magically is enough food for unlimited numbers is highly simplistic and certainly doesn’t take into account that we couldn’t even produce the amount of food we do now without fertilizer – and fertilizer (petroleum product from a diminishing resource) is another issue.

To suggest that overpopulation is not part of Bangladesh’s problem is patently absurd. Speaking of numbers … just look at them. Bangladesh, slightly smaller in size than Iowa (population, 3 million) and with 142 million people, has the highest population density in the world. Most of the country is less than 40 feet above sea level, and it’s estimated that half the land would flood if sea level rose a little more than 3 feet – think global warming. Frequent flooding already is an ongoing problem. Wouldn’t say that’s an ideal place for too many people to live.

As to the oft-repeated Texas example, I guess it conjures an interesting visual, but then what? People couldn’t actually live that way, unless maybe they’re in The Matrix. West Texas, for example, has slim pickings; it takes about 100 acres to run one head of cattle. As an idea of how much “space” one needs, the average American’s ecological footprint is about 12 acres.

Regarding Haiti, if you don’t think that island is overpopulated, start with a read of Nicholas D. Kristof’s article in “The New York Times,” which profiles Nahomie, a Haitian woman, poverty stricken, and at the time of the piece, pregnant with her tenth child. The fertility rate in Haiti is 3.81, too high to be sustainable for an island, assuming it were a closed system, which it’s not. It’s estimated there are about 100,000 Haitians living in the United States illegally and another 30,000 who were awaiting deportation before the reprieve due to the devastating earthquake. The United States continues to be the pressure release valve for not just Haiti, but many other countries.

To suggest overpopulation is some silly myth suggests really poor analytical ability.

I suggest readers who are interested in the real problem of overpopulation visit the Web sites of organizations that have real understanding of this serious problem. This includes Negative Population Growth, Population Connection, Californians for Population Stabilization and Carrying Capacity Network. As well, Edward C. Hartman’s book, “The Population Fix: Breaking America’s Addiction to Population Growth,” is a terrific primer on how populations grow (and grow too large) and what can be done to get a handle on overpopulation. It also includes a very good illustrative example – using an island.
*sigh* This is just a propping up of the same straw men positions in order to knock them down. Note that perhaps Mr.Ehrlich and Mr. Malthus were less wrong than early.

The issue is not potential square footage per person, it's global carrying capacity. Anytime you see the square footage per person argument, you can be assured than any further reading of that text is quite unworthy of any more of your limited time and energy.

The issue is also not that the rate of global population growth is less than it was, it's any growth beyond carrying capacity. Note that it is quite possible for a population to exist, temporarily, at a point beyond carrying capacity - it's called 'overshoot'.

Do a little research people. More babies now ensure greater human suffering and more severe environmental collapse later.

For those whose minds are open to matters other than self replication, I encourage you to read Wm. Catton's classic "Overshoot". The single best online resource that addresses all the usual cliches and false logic (including those in Ms. Young's essay) with elegant critical thinking is www.paulchefurka.ca
You demonstrate no substantive knowledge of any kind of agronomy, energy technology, resource sustainability or the predicted effects of climate change (in fact that seems conspicuously absent). Your comments that "If American, Candadian, Latin American and Western European farmers were encouraged to plant as much as possible and process as much as possible, the world would drown in food" is grotesquely laughable. Yeah let's not just burn the candle at both ends, but try to hold up a match and get it going in the middle as well. The issue is not whether we can produce enough food right here and now, but how long we can afford in ecological terms to produce cheap food in such mass quantities before reaching various material tipping points.

Your piece is essentially the 'prosperity' argument of right-wingers repackaged on a liberal forum. Accordingly, this execrable piece uses many of the rhetorical tactics routinely employed by the right-wing punditsphere, most specifically picking out one prominent supporter of X, in this case Ehrlich, and using them to pillory much broader, more complicated concepts (see Gore, Al). It is a way for people who no nothing about science to score points with an audience that knows nothing about science.

The only sensible comment you make is pointing out someone else's observation that overpopulation is a relative term. True, the poorer we become the more people we can support, all the way down to a hand-to-mouth existence. Even if we all wanted a modestly modern lifestyle like in say Romania, we would not have the natural resources to sustain more than approximately 1-2 billion people.

Blaming governments/corruption is just a safe attitude for privileged white liberals (a CEO in Hawaii, need I say more) to avoid the inevitable quasi-racial clash on the issue of overpopulation. If you fear being called a 'racist' more than actually holding an evidence-based position, then you pretty much exemplify why most anything we do in terms of global sustainability at the moment is like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound, hoping it will all turn out right.
Excellent research, clearly presented. A valuable addition to the discourse on an important subject. Rated, of course.

I think the answer to the problem of pockets of overpopulation is two-fold: education and philosophical re-orientation of people towards the concept of self-responsibility.

The United States once held out the greatest hope for promoting/allowing self-determination and its attendant prosperity. Under the current administration, the reward for being regulated to death is the promise that wealth will be redistributed to the extent necessary to keep the populace at a subsistence level. If this promise were withdrawn, people might think twice before having babies that they can't reasonably support through childhood.
This sort of over-population denialism appeals to several strange ideological bed fellows:

1) neo-liberals, followers of the overwhelming dominant economic theory, one founded on the impossible notion of perpetual growth, hence their resistance to global warming, the notion of finite resources and other issues putting basic barriers on growth.

2) religious people who see not procreating as some terrible , selfish act and think magical sky-man will intervene when we wreck the ecosystem

3) anti-Western types who constantly romanticise the developing world from a position of immense privilege and simultaneous patronise its inhabitants by routinely casting them as the helpless victims of the West free of personal responsibility.

At Salon, the sort of shallow rhetoric this article engages in appeals distinctly to group number three with a few neo-liberals in tow. Of course given the amazing ignorance about even basic science in the United States, I am not surprised that more complex scientific issues are insurmountable and instead spun as cheap political taking points.
Jeez overpopulation alarmists, what part of: the New York Times listed it as "one of the myths of the 20th century" in its January 1, 2000 Millennium Edition? Did you argue with them also?

And: Paul Erlich started the overpopulation hysteria with his book that scared people with its prophesies of starvation, death and destruction. However, the exact opposite has occurred.

You lose all credibility when you ignore the facts and argue from emotions. None of the prophesies have happened, in fact it's all gotten better. There are still huge amounts of inhabitable land out there untouched by humans. It's not an overpopulation problem. There are a lot of problems out there, but it's not too many people. Or maybe too many of the wrong people in power.
"Jeez overpopulation alarmists, what part of: the New York Times listed it as 'one of the myths of the 20th century' in its January 1, 2000 Millennium Edition? Did you argue with them also?'"

Oh my the NYT, next to only the Torah in holy writ and wisdom. Did you believe the NYT when it being a mouth piece for the Bush invasion of Iraq? The fact a newspaper and a few taking heads from politically-motivated NGO's are your 'authorities' rather than say peer-reviewed scientific articles, says it all.

"You lose all credibility when you ignore the facts and argue from emotions."

Oddly that is all you are doing, using a few innately invalid, manipulated or out-of-context data to argue for the status quo, which tends to be the emotionally satisfying option for most people.


"None of the prophesies have happened, in fact it's all gotten better."

Actually the number of people living in poverty has sky-rocketed. The 'green revolution' a plan straight out of your neo-liberal, perpetual growth programme has left countries that were once food exporters as net food importers. Not sure how much of that "better" the planet can bear.

"There are still huge amounts of inhabitable land out there untouched by humans."

Inhabitable land does not mean arable land. Inuit, San people and others prove harsh climates are inhabitable, but they have tiny populations and often resort to harsh measures to keep populations under control.

Arable land requires major inputs of fossil fuels, fresh water and nutrients (all topics you fail spectacularly to address, as do the people you cite). All limited resources, some obviously being used in a non-renewable fashion. That has noting to do with "too many of the wrong people in power" it is about destruction and dispersion of material resources in a closed system.

Talking to you people is like trying to scientifically reason with a creationist.
1/19/10: "MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has registered the first population increase since the chaotic years which followed the fall of the Soviet Union, bucking a long-term decline that has dampened economic growth projections, officials said on Tuesday.

Russia's population increased by between 15,000 and 25,000 to more than 141.9 million in 2009, the first annual increase since 1995, Health Minister Tatyana Golikova told a meeting in the Kremlin with President Dmitry Medvedev.

The rise was helped by a 4 percent decline in mortality rates and an influx of immigrants, mostly from the former republics of the former Soviet Union, Golikova said.

"The difference between birth rates and mortality rates will be covered by a rise in migration," Golikova said in a televised Kremlin meeting, adding that Russia was trying to cut the number of abortions.

"Our abortion rates are comparable to birth rates," she said. Russia registered 1.7 million births in 2009 and 1.2 million abortions."
The Chilean Model is a dangerous myth. Besides overlooking the coup that set the stage for a tremendous amount of rapid and profoundly UNdemocratic change, and that these changes wreaked tremendous economic destruction so severe that their continued enforcement required years and years of violent repression including staggering numbers of "disappearances" and the widespread use of torture . . . besides overlooking all of that the only reason Chile didn't suffer a complete economic implosion was because Pinochet never allowed Codelco (the state copper mine company) to be privatized (it alone generated 85% of Chile's export revenue).

And while it's fun to number crunch and realize that less of the planet earth is occupied by the space humans take up than many people understand, this completely overlooks the environmental degradation taking place in the name of resource extraction etc.

This is just the tip of the iceberg:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX9uvyF58U0

This is another fun one:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427281.300-posthuman-earth-how-the-planet-will-recover-from-us.html?full=true
Interesting article, and so true, if you are living in an alternative universe where High School mathematics rules. Yes, the numbers can be made to look like we have room and food enough for billions more but in the real world, with real people, nothing could be further from the truth. We could also give up all our weapons and live without war, cruelty, crime. and disagreements ( the Middle East) . Your premise is sophomoric, incorrect, self centered, and ultimately reveals why we do not need more of us on this planet.
To my mind, any place there are so many people that they are encrouching on and destroying the natural environment, is overpopulated - period. Any place on the planet there are species of flora/fauna disappearing because the humans are burning the trees and eating the endangered species, is overpopulated.
Also I agree, the root of the problem is the wildly unequal distribution of wealth & of education on this planet. In places where the women are educated the other problems I mentioned begin to disappear. I'm not saying women, such as myself, are stupid, but that with education they come up with things to do besides reproduce to keep their men happy.
"Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and the Congo are examples of natural resource rich countries whose corrupt, anticapitalistic policies have consigned most of their citizens to lives of grinding poverty."

What kind of "history" is this?

Brazil was a right-wing, capitalist-friendly military dictatorship until 1981. Run largely by anti-contraception right-wing Roman Catholic clericalists.

India managed to develop and escape the clutches of famine while utilizing a mixed economy that was socialistic to a large degree.

Mexico has been historically ruled by 200 families since its formation as a Republic, and treated as a vassal state by the USA. It isn't a socialist, protectionist state- it's the partner of the USA in NAFTA. And it would be even poorer without Pemex, the national oil company.

Due to factors like poor health care and alcoholism, Russia's population dropped by around 10% over the past 20 years- the era in which it moved into "post-socialism", largely plundered by the most corrupt elements of Russian society taking advantage of "privatization" to loot the country, and turn everything from the banks to the tourism industry over to its "Mafiyas".

The Congo was a kleptocracy ruled by the personalist dictatorship of Mobutu, who made himself a billionaire at the expense of his people in the course of being propped up by the West- who maintained him in power precisely because of his "pro-capitalist" policies as far as allowing the resource exploitation of his nation by Western capitalist interests.

I'm not even ideologically on the Left. I'm an advocate of a mixed economy, entrepreneurialism, and small business. But facts are facts.

Neither am I a regional scholar, or an academic. I'm just someone who pays attention, rather than reducing every issue to rote ideological cant.

And I'm tired of continually having such a difficult time finding people who know their ass from a hole in the ground to talk to, when it comes to matters of serious import.

I can no longer wave the "we're the greatest, because of our free-market system" banner, in regard to the USA. The North American continent my European forebears found was the greatest resource trove on Earth- Serengeti, Golconda, Cibola, the Breadbasket, the Cornucopia, the largest groves of hardwood timber, the tallest pines and redwoods- all in one temperate zone swath. No wonder we "did all right" here. It wasn't just because we're so great.

And the vast majority of it has been gobbled up in less than 300 years.

The "free market" led to the total extinction of the passenger pigeon (1 billion birds) and the commercial extinction of the American bison (30-60 million head)- game resources that could have fed the present population of the continent, with some give-back and resource management in place. Replaced by factory chickens, hogs, and cattle, fed by monocropping propped up by petroleum-derived fertilizer.

The hematite and magnetite of the Mesabi range- the richest vein of high-quality iron in the world, much of which was still a reserve in the 1960s- was refined and used for such purposes as being tossed into bomb fragments in Indochina- where the US dropped more iron bombs than in all its previous military conflicts ever, combined.

I suspect that also partially accounts for the playing out of the world's largest open pit mine, the copper mine in Butte, Montana. Emptied out by 1982.

California used to be the world's top oil producer. Texas was second, in the 1920s. Our economy drank it dry. Now, less than 90 years later, the "miracle of the free market system", as embodied by the oil and gas barons, are in the process of polluting our groundwater and destroying the wild lands of northern Pennsylvania and the Catskills of New York in order to chase out the last tiny reserves of natural gas by using the local streams and the aquifers, which is the equivalent of putting a lighter to a plastic pen casing because there's some crack residue left in it.

This is what it is.

I'm not an overpopulation hysteric. But this planet is rapidly running out of cheap and easily available hydrocarbons- hydrocarbons that accounted for the booming agricultural production of the 20th century- and people have their heads in the sand.

Make no mistake, we're in for some tough sledding over the next 10-20 years.
I've regretted the tone of the previous comment since I posted it. I don't intend to be brusque or dismissive.

But Ms. Young- please do some research, okay? You have the one of the world's largest libraries at your fingertips.

The problems that you bring up as causing stress related to "overpopulation"- corruption, big government, social planning- have seldom been operative as related to any standard sense of "liberalism" or "socialism".

What holds the historical regimes you brought up in common isn't government in the modern sense at all- it's feudalism. The lack of central governing structures at all. Landholding, resource-holding, wealth-hoarding aristocracies. No schools, no public services, stasis. Places where a communal water tap is considered the zenith of public largesse and social progress by the owners. Not the political leaders- the owners.

You were asking questions about Haiti a while back, in a previous comment or post. Do a search on the Duvalier family. They weren't socialists. They arguably weren't of any ideology at all- except for feudalism. The politics of the post-Duvalier era have been manipulated by outside nations almost completely, in all practical respects, whether the titular leader was Aristide, Cedras, Preval, on either side of the ideological divide (such as it is)...it all has to do with arrangements with the ruling elite families there. The Duvaliers bequeathed such an unstable situation to Haiti that it's never gotten above water.

I can't think of an instance of feudalism teaching people the means of self-government.

Beware of feudalism. It's often referred to as "privatization" nowadays.

(There's some defensible privatization out there, arguably. Maybe 10% of it, is my guess. With feudalists pushing for more, all the time.)

And if you're tempted to hold citizens responsible for the state of their government and society, please look closer for an example than across the border, to another country.
Pure drivel.

And the 150,000 killed in the Haitian earthquake were replaced by global population growth in less than 18 hours. Earth can't bear our weight.
nkennedy, if you're going to prove a claim like that, you'll need to marshal quite a bit more evidence than one statistic. No matter how "sensational" and murkily "portentuous" the image being conjured by it.
People = resource consumption = pollution + depletion of resources. I don't see in your post where you address that.
Been out driving lately? Had to look for a job? Thought about how some resources are limited (fuel, metals?
This reminds me of a 600-pound man urging us to enjoy a couple more cheeseburgers.

Keep in mind that H. sapiens only started down the cultural dead-end of the scientific/technological revolution a couple of centuries ago. Newton's Principia Mathematica makes as good a corner post as any. It took us some 40,000 years to reach a billion in 1804; since that time humans have metastasized. Sit down and draw the hockey-stick graph. Only those living in concrete bee-hives don't feel overcrowded.

Since we seem unable to resist the urge to breed beyond the carrying capacity of the earth (don't think about food; think water), it will be better for the few survivors to get on with it. Go on, have a kid. Have two.

Feed them cheeseburgers.
There’s one aspect of your argument that I sympathize with. If you’re a responsible mother, you shouldn’t have to feel guilty about having kids, and you have every right to become defensive about the Population Bomb’s suggestion of the “addition of temporary sterilants to water supplies or staple food.” It’s a sad truth that the extremism of Paul Elrich’s book may have done more harm than good, by instigating defensive reactions and providing an easy target for articles such as yours.

But, because of your naïve and simplistic argument (“We don't live in a finite world” – what??!!), your article is likewise an easy target. You’re right that the food problem could be solved through systemic changes, but what about water? Energy? Forests? Global warming? Species extinction? In some ways it seems that your logic begins with your viewpoint (that it’s okay to have more kids because overpopulation is not a problem) and then you’re just lining up other “facts” that happen to agree with your viewpoint while ignoring the rest. Please, start with the facts: “We don't live in a finite world.” Yes, we do. The earth’s surface covers 200 million square miles. You may argue that the world’s population will soon begin to decline, but do you really think that (# of people) * (resources consumed per capita) isn’t growing? I know you don’t really believe this- you yourself note that “the six-fold increase in world population is dwarfed by the eighty-fold increase in world output during the same 200 year period.” So if we don’t hit the limit of natural resources in fifty years, what about 100 years? 1000?

I’d argue that we already have hit the limit. Maybe it’s because you live on an island (literally) that you don’t see the environmental impacts *related* to overpopulation. Ever tried to breathe the “air” in Delhi? Beijing? Are you forgetting that American goods are manufactured in developing countries, who suffer from the bulk of pollution while America’s environment remains relatively pristine? What about the fact that Americans (about 5% of the world’s population) consume 1/4 of the world’s energy- what happens to our natural resources as developing countries like China and India begin emulating the American Dream? No, we aren’t successfully solving these problems on a global scale- they’re getting worse.

It might seem unfair to “blame innocent, everyday human beings minding their own business of creating all kinds of horrors like famine, global warming, climate change, poverty, crime.” But the world can only change when enough people give a damn about creating a better, more sustainable world for everyone, not just inside their own bubble. Population control may be the touchiest solution of all (note that Al Gore was politically savvy enough to not mention overpopulation in “An Inconvenient Truth”) and somebody’s got to have kids. But you seriously undermine the credibility of your argument by failing to adequately acknowledge the context of overpopulation within broader environmental sustainability. You don’t like population control as the answer. I'm okay with that, but let’s hear some alternatives. Your solution to the problem seems to only be denial that there's even a problem to begin with.
This is a ridiculous, ridiculous argument.

"The vast majority of the planet's inhabitable surface is empty of human inhabitants." There is plenty of space and land to go around.

Really? I believe the CURRENT inhabitants of that land, e.g. the trees, plants, animals, insects, and all the components of the rapidly swindling native ecosystems on the planet would beg to differ with you.

Obviously you haven't heard that in most cases of extinction and endangerment of a species, the primary cause is usually "habitat destruction".

These organisms aren't just pesky annoying competitors for resources, but in the case of the rain forest, for example, we actually DEPEND on these ecosystems remaining intact, as they act as the lungs of the earth and not only clean the air and send up huge amounts of water vapor to stabilize the weather, but provide oxygen. You know, the stuff that we breathe.

So go on with your blather that humans have plenty of room and we shoudl have as many kids as we want, but you're wrong. The RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH has slowed, but the growth itself is still happening at an exponential rate. It's just not growing AS blazingly fast as it has in the past.

Think about all the open land that you saw in your youth, that is now covered with strip malls and ticky tacky McMansions and bullshit like that. THAT in a single lifetime. Sprawl beyond belief, at a rate never seen before in the history of our planet. You think that's OK? In fact, we should quickly cover the rest of the remaining wild spaces, like an out-of-control cancer? Well, I do not agree. At all.
so holland does fine?
That the government has fallen is just a indication but if you knew the truth the government (and media) try to hide that the country is moving closer to civil war against the imigrants who couse huge problems.
Deborah, Darling, your maternal instincts have floated away your brain. Babies are cute. I think we should have a "Neighborhood Baby" available to all frustrated Mommy-Zombies who can't think past the diaper box and into the real world. Or visit "cuteoverload.com" and see how many species have cute babies and how much they are endangered because the human race is crawling all over like termites undermining a house.

Corporations are bailing out of the US because they have sucked all the good out of the ground. But you live in such a privileged place that you don't see the starving, diseased and suffering children that all those babies become when their families can't find jobs or grow their own food.

I love Salon.com. Lots of interesting discussions here, and I appreciate your willingness to put forth such a stupid argument so so many thinking people can shoot it down.

We can't just keep producing infinite amounts of food. You may have heard the old expression, "Farmed out," where the landowners have to move on because they've destroyed the fertility of that patch of earth. The land only has so much to give. And "breaking new ground" has become impossible because all the ground has been taken.

Excuse my impatience with such arrogance as yours that assumes other life forms to be expendable. God made them all and saw that they were good. Who are you, again?
What a fine analytical mind you have. Right. Lady, you are dangerous.

First of all, I would suggest that you are strongly on the right in your politics. Righties always bring up the so-called fact that the people of the world can be put in Texas. Shows how logical they are.

Second, one of the problems with the economy is that there are too many people to provide jobs for.

Third, like most people who can not follow an argument or use logic, you have forgotten that technology provided the so-called Green Revolution that Erlich did not predict.

Fourth, just as no one could have predicted the Green Revolution, no can predict whether or not it will collapse, creating worse problems.

Fifth, water is a precious commodity and it is widely suggested that water and not oil is the real reason for unrest in the Middle East.

Sixth, consider the population boom that has occurred in the Middle East and what the Baby Boom meant for America. Think of all those folks yelling about the future of Social Security. Have you ever considered that one of the problems with the US economy was that the Baby Boom meant an increase in the demand for housing in the early 70s?
You're wrong to think that the government is "paying farmers not to grow nutritious food," at least not in any meaningful sense.

The only thing that fits the definition is the miniscule "Conservation Reserve Program," which last year paid farmers about 1.7B to not work land that was especially susceptible to ecological degradation and erosion.

If that sounds like the sort of thing that you're talking about, consider the scale of the program. $1.7B. The entire GDP is $13T, and agriculture (making up a paltry 1% of that) is a $130B/year industry. So "paying farmers not to farm" has a miniscule effect at best.

The program is voluntary, only affects a handful of agricultural acres, and helps protect ecologically fragile areas. But any time right wingers want to prove that government is hopelessly stupid, they talk about how they "pay farmers not to farm." It's pure sophistry.
So these worries about overpopulation are unfounded?

"When Paul Ehrlich wrote his famous book ["The Population Bomb"], women were having an average around the world of five or six children; now they’re having an average of 2.6. Fertility rates around the world have halved. That’s not just true in Europe and North America; they’re way below replacement levels in most of East Asia now. Not just China but Japan, Korea, Vietnam and Burma have replacement rates of fertility or below. Around the world, fertility rates have been coming down really sharply. So the population bomb as we’ve conceived it before really isn’t there. There’s still population growth going on, but that’s going to stabilize."

From Front Page Salon interviewing an author on the "Overpopulation Myth." The author has a new book out on it.
Right! Have a baby! Have Two! Have three or four! You can afford it!

If those people can't, it's not your problem! There are solutions, let somebody else implement them!

Those people who live in grinding poverty with no health care and constant malnutrition? They aren't suffering from overpopulation, because we could relocate them to the Rocky Mountains and they'd each have an acre of non-arable land to starve to death on.

Yeah, somebody should share resources with them. Somebody else. And while they're at it, those generous people who are going to be producing and redistributing food at their own expense should also be providing education and building the economies of those countries. What is your contribution to this project going to be?

Something could be done about it, so it's not a problem!

Back in the 70's it was indeed common to consider that the earth does not have unlimited capacity to absorb unlimited population growth. Since then the rise of the influence of the Religious Right has meant that it is no longer acceptable even to consider the idea of responsibility. Our nation's population policy (the one we are working hard to export to the entire world) is based on an ancient book that wants our tribe to increase greatly in numbers so we can win a war against the tribe next to us that didn't overpopulate so much.

Works out great for business where there are lots of extra people that can be used as cheap labor. And cannon fodder. People dying in wars and from lack of clean water, food, shelter, and medical care? Not so important.
Angela, it isn't "the influence of the Religious Right" that's led to the neglect of consideration of the problems associated with waste, resource overuse, and the human population increase.

It's because it's a Tough Question. Most people in the field of public policy would rather do anything than confront one of those. It's so much easier to find something relatively unimportant to concentrate on, or squabble over.

Also- when it comes to dogma, the economic dogmas of 19th century Capitalism handily out-influence anything proffered by The Religious Right.

I say this as someone who would prefer to mend capitalism, rather than end it. If that's possible. But for that to have a hope of happening, some of Orthodox Capitalism's most cherished unexamined assumptions need to be challenged, unpacked, and scrutinized.

And at the top of the list of those assumptions, the Orthodox Capitalist Dogma of Infinitely Expanding Markets is overdue for cross-examination.

I think that one of the main reasons that the Dogma of Infinitely Expanding Markets is still so widely accepted is that Economics majors and MBAs aren't required to study the life sciences as part of their college educations.

The Dogma works, on paper. Under the actual physical conditions of this planet, it's plainly insane. But Economics majors and MBAs aren't exposed to anything in their educations that would convincingly apprise them of the discomforting facts related to real-world conditions.

The other problem with the Dogma is that those who accept it are materially rewarded, and those who don't are exiled. So the Dogma is seen to "work", from the vantage point of those especially privileged by it. Within their own individual bubbles.

But those individual bubbles of material privilege are supported by the web of life on this planet- the natural systems that are studied by those nettling life sciences I mentioned. Like biology, ecology, oceanography, and oncology. To name a few of them.
Wow -- I have to say that reading this piece and then all the comments was both upsetting and illuminating -- this is a pretty grand example of what it is to live in your own tautological paradise.

If you had kept your premise to whether or not there was enough food for everyone, you'd have the start of a plausible argument and we could focus on the rich v. poor, corrupt corporations and dictators, whatever you'd like. But your whole argument falls apart with just a cursory notice of all of the things you left out -- resource depletion, global warming, ecosystem collapse, ocean acidification, mass extinction -- to name a few of the things covered well by other commenters. And yet, for whatever reason, you find no reason to engage these critical aspects of the debate.

So do you blame global warming on corrupt dictators or do you just not believe in it? I ask that in all seriousness.

By your own logic, this is all a simple math problem where we look at the column of expanding population and compare it to the columns of expanding technology and such.

What about the column where you put the one finite plant we live on, you know, Earth? It's not an ever-expanding resource. Why do you continue to make vague references to all the free space on the planet without acknowledging that the space is not a growing resource -- indeed, with the destruction of ecosystems, the habitable space is shrinking.

Incidentally, like Haiti, Planet Earth is an island. But unlike Haiti, once we've deforested and choked it and made it uninhabitable, there is no Planet New York for us to emigrate to.

Are corrupt governments the problem? Partly -- but clearly of the 300 or so sovereign nations on Earth, there are maybe 5 that have an effective approach to sustainability. I'm sorry but you missed the mark entirely on what puts the "over" in over-population; it's not square miles in Texas per human on Earth. It's the number of people vs. the level of societal organization, integration and enlightenment necessary to sustain those people on the one home we all share. One look at our own government and our own inability to face up to long-term environmental and societal crises should be enough to have you notice that we, as a species, have not yet figured out how to manage ourselves responsibly, particularly when it comes to population growth.

But no, let's just keep cranking out babies. Sooner or later, one of them will figure out how "grow" the Earth.

Does each individual have the same right to inhabit the Earth as the snail darter? Sure. No one's talking about euthanasia or compulsory sterilization. BUT our individual societies do not have the right to keep expanding both in size and in consumption -- until we figure out a way to do so sustainably. More to the point, it's both irresponsible and immoral to keep growing until we figure out how to manage our needs -- both between the rich and the poor, but as importantly, between our species and the various ecosystems we share.

Finally, the logic of your piece does raise two obvious questions that I'm wondering if you'd be willing to address: First, if we're not overpopulated now, then what is the point where we do become overpopulated? Is it that 16 billion? Sixty? If you don't have a number in mind, then I kind of want to know why. Is sustainability really a non-issue for you?

My second question is very basic: Even if we were to accept your arguments on overpopulation, what exactly is the argument for more population? What is the need or justification for creating more and more of us? Because it feels good? Because babies are cute? Seriously, I'm having a hard time imagining arguments for expanding the species that don't ultimately come down to selfish, self-serving head-in-the-sand justifications for vicarious immortality.

Anyway, I make no assumptions about your ideology or character-- and I commend you on your writing-- but I sincerely hope that you will revisit the connection between population and sustainability. The growth we all need is in our understanding of our impact on each other and the planet.
It seems to me that those who want to disregard the threat of overpopulation should read current facts relative to starvation, lack of water, global warming, dwindling natural resources and other such facts.
I find in reading those sites that say that population problems are a myth that their evidence is very sparse and inconclusive. Recently I read Book 1 of the free e-book series "In Search of Utopia" (http://andgulliverreturns.info), it blasts their lack of evidence relative to their calling overpopulation a myth. The book, actually the last half of the book, takes on the skeptics in global warming, overpopulation, lack of fresh water, lack of food, and other areas where people deny the evidence. I strongly suggest that anyone wanting to see the whole picture read the book, at least the last half.
The outdated fertility replacement rate of 2.1 is also clarified.
The question is should we base our behavior on 'hope' or on 'facts.'
Let me ask this... If overpopulation isn't becoming a problem then why are coyotes now out roaming peoples back yards?
It is estimated that the world gains EACH DAY in population about 98,980 people. If you care about wildlife having space too, this will cause problems and having many children steals space and resourses from other living things. Having a bunch of kids is arrogant and stupid!
The only thing truly more annoying than overpopulation hysteria is anti-overpopulation hysteria. Stop being such a reactionary jerk wad! Overpopulation hysteria is bad enough, but now we have to listen to its rabid denunciation too? Come on! Certainly overpopulation hysteria does not help. But neither does foaming at the mouth over it either.
You might stop and reconsider why the predictions of The Population Bomb didn't come to pass.

One reason is that population *growth* slowed... but that doesn't mean that population is decreasing, simply that it's increasing at a slower rate.

But the prime reason is the Green Revolution. Mankind turned its marvelous technological head to more efficient ways of making food - and of course had a marvelous success.

But like every new field of technology that man creates, there's an initial burst of discoveries, "low-hanging fruit", and then the rate of innovation slows. And this has definitely happened in the world of agronomy - in fact, we reached that point a decade ago. This is aided by the fact that the large food multinational companies don't see any great advantage in spending money to reduce the cost of food and therefore reducing their profits. Instead, it's better for them to create more premium products with a higher profit margin than further commoditize their output.

But all of this ignores the elephant in the room. The reason we've been able to do all of this is because of cheap petroleum. I just toured Bali last week, where we saw the Balinese cows, that used to plough fields - but not any more, people just use machines. If this is true in a developing country, it's ten times as true in the US.

But there is only a finite amount of oil. It isn't going to be next week or next year, probably not the next decade, but eventually we're going to start running out.

Don't forget that we get the easiest oil first. Canada has about half the world's proven reserves of oil - but most of this is in the form of tar sands. I grew up in Canada and I've been hearing about those tar sands for over 40 years - technology has improved to the point where you only have to spend 9 barrels of oil to get 10 barrels out but improvements are slowing.

The most optimistic estimates have peak oil occurring in 2020. Many people believe we have already passed it - that 2006 was the peak of oil production (certainly, less oil was produced in 2007 -2009, though the 2010 results aren't in yet) and it will never come again.

If you don't believe me, read this report from Shell Oil: http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf

So how are we going to eat? The world's population continues to increase - how are we going to feed them? Where's the energy coming from?

Solar? Call me when you get more energy out of a solar cell than you put into making it (fact!)

Nuclear? Despite recent mishaps, nuclear is a vital part of the world's energy future. But will you really have a nuclear powered tractor? I don't think so...

Biofuels? Again, biofuel takes more petroleum to produce than it generates in energy. It certainly makes sense to take the waste of our food production and use it to make energy - but it makes no sense as a primary energy source.

Hydro? But the world's great rivers are all dammed to the hilt and more. And then we have the conflict with drinking water. Despite the jokes about this idea in the thread above, the fact is that many of the United States' great cities have deep uncertainty about their water supply. The Colorado River is tapped to its limit - the mayor of Las Vegas said that they have five years of water and then they only have "prayers". But this scenario is repeated all over the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil is a surprisingly unbiased article with a lot of links that will lead you to original sources.

The planet is finite. We cannot continue exponential growth of population and a consequent super-exponential growth of resource usage, even if the growth constants have decreased a little from their insane values of a generation ago.

My wife and I have put our money where our mouth is and aren't having kids. I really suggest to the reader that it's deeply irresponsible to have a large family if you really care about the world 20 years from today.
Population density in Hongkong (6427/sq km) and Singapore (6649/sq km) and Belgium has (400/sq km) more people per sq km than in India (349/sq km). So space, as Vasu says, is not necessarily the problem leading to hunger and poverty.

"Doggett points out that not only the United States but Japan and Western Europe pay farmers not to produce food."

You are right - as Vasu said, to compensate for that, you buy third world produce to feed your population and your livestock. Causing imbalance :) So on and so forth. So if YOU have more babies, it would in effect mean more hunger and poverty for the third world :) and Africa and Mexico - bec when you have more babies you wd need more.

Also the largest number of orphans live in Romania - first world. Then comes Zimbabwe (AIDs orphans). Along with the sub Sahara region, Teenage pregnancy is the highest in the US, most of these babies end up in foster homes or orphanages. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orphanage) (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1123322/) .... In India the number is only 25 mill in a population of 1300 million.

So it is NOT only the third world responsible for the imbalances in population or resource distribution.

"Over" is a relative term as many have pointed out here already.

But it is true that, the educated middle class that can afford childcare is choosing to not having babies at all or having fewer babies, in both First World AND Third World countries.
One of the problems with predicting that something will be a problem, is that until it is actually a problem your prediction can be labeled as wrong. If you give a date for the problem to occur, and it passes, then people can say you were wrong and the case is also closed.

Unfortunately for both the cornucopians and the realists, the days of crowing about overpopulation being a non-issue have come to an end. We have reached Peak Oil production. After Peak Oil comes decline. The severity of Peak Oil is worse with a higher population. As time goes on, the ratio of Oil Production/people will get worse and worse. More people in the face of a declining oil production will be very hard to rationalize as a good thing, by the cornucopians. We do have some alternatives to using oil for land-based transportation that would allow our standard of living to stay as it is with more humans on earth, but due to our cornucopian blinders we are doing too little, too late to not have this be a painful experience.

One of the canards given by population growth cornucopians is some "people/land mass" or "land mass/people" ratio. Unfortunately for those people living on earth, popluation growth occurs mostly in the already crowded areas. The millions of immigrants to the United States do not start new cities in the Kansas prairie, they move to existing cities. One of the reasons population growth doesn't get met by building new cities out in the desert is because you need to get existing residents to pay for the costs of the new residents. If new residents pay for their cost all on their own it becomes too expensive for them.

Population growth into our existing cities means that we will see continue to0 see our dwellings both shrink, and become more expensive relative to our income. If the US had not turned on immigration again in the 1960's, we'd be in a lot less populated country with the benefits being lower land costs which translates to lower rent and lower housing prices. No amount of cornucopianism about how Kansas has lots of unused acres helps someone trying to rent an apartment in American cities who's population continues to swell.
*yawn* Message to the pro-breeder crowd: It's the carrying capacity, stupid. All of your straw man and creative math arguments are easily deconstructed (and have been). Two best resources: the essays at www.paulchefurka.ca and Catton's classic "Overshoot".
The Population Research Institute has some good short animations on the topic. This is just one:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Colinpri1#p/u/1/OXrN9HhnCcM
So how exactly was this worked out? When calculating the land area for each human were the non developed natural reserves, forests and wild land included? Because those areas are not and should not be available for human food production.

The main problem with human overpopulation is that our farming method destroys natural habitat. Thousands, millions of species face extinction because of it. The main cause of extinction is habitat loss, and the main cause of habitat loss is ourselves - mainly to provide space for farming. We can't live without other species doing their jobs in the ecosystem, this article completely fails to touch on the impact to the natural world that our increasing population is having.

How can we continue to feed an increasing population with a finite farmable area? We can't invent food out of thin air, we have to eat organic matter that is grown from soil with sunlight. We are not gods, we can't change our own metabolism to eat dust and rocks. Eventually if people just keep having babies we will overpopulate, perhaps not tomorrow, or the next day, but some time in the future if the trend continues it's inevitable. Think on a scale larger than a couple of hundred years, we plan to live as a species longer than that surely?

Peace