I just got back from a totally kickin' weekend in Vegas with my brother.  I'd give it a 0.5 "Hangover" rating.  We didn't make the full score of "1.0", only because we did not marry a stipper, pull out one of our own teeth, or lose anyone.   For short, we had an awesome time, not a little because it is the first time my brother and I have been together alone since we were kids.  Back then I used to hit him a lot.  This time I didn't.

 But I digress.  I want to address the subject of morons and a-holes who play blackjack.  I'm not indicting all blackjack players here, just the ones who also happen to be morons and/or a-holes.  The table seems to attract them.

So let's start with a basic truth.  Blackjack is a game of pure probability.  If the deck is shuffled throughouly, then it is just as likely that two consecutive cards are two kings as it is that two cards are a 5 and a 2.  It's all about probability and nothing else.  The dealer has a 42.08% chance of busting when showing  16.  This 42.08% chance does not change a wit whether the player seated up or downstream for you dances the Watusi on a Tuesday, whether or not s/he splits her 10's, or whether or not he doubles down on a 12.   There is almost exactly the same percentage of the next card being, for example, a face card than there was before you took whatever card you took.

There are all sorts of superstitions that crop up at the blackjack table.  Some examples:  There are good and bad dealers (in terms of giving the players good or bad cards), or dealers get hot and cold.  Nonsense! Folks if dealers could control this, they'd be rich players themselves.  If you split your 10's, you screw up the rest of the table.  No you don't.  There are good reasons not to split 10's, but they have nothing to do with the other players at the table.  You don't do it because it is a bad play for YOU.  You already have a likely winning hand, why throw it away?  Why trade a 20 for a 16 and 17?   Another superstition: The third baseman (last player dealt to) can screw up the table by taking the dealer's bust card on a close call.  Nobody is going to get pissed at you if you take a ten when showing a 10.  But try it when you are showing a 16.  Everyone gets pissed at you.  It doesn't matter that hitting a 16 against the dealers 10 up card is absolutely the correct play (unless you can surrender), but take a 10 on that hand, and people will glare at you for taking the dealer's 'bust card'.  Nonsense.  There is exactly the same probability that there will be a face card next in the deck as there was before you took one.  People who think otherwise are morons.  OK, that's a bit harsh.  The people who have listened to the probability explanation, and still persist in believing that the cards have voodoo are morons.  The others are just ignorant.

Now on to the a-holes; an easier category to describe.  They are the people who insist on berating their fellow players for not following one of their superstitions or the other.  While I was playing this week, there was a guy at the table, who exclaimed loudly that a woman sitting at the other end of the table was a "bitch who doesn't know how to play" - while she was sitting there!  Well, she might or might not know how to play, but by not your criterion - that she took the dealer's bust card.  It's you, dickwad, who doesn't know how to play, and besides that, you made an ass of yourself.

This is not to say that these superstitions don't have their usefulness.  My brother and I were joined at the table by an obnoxious stripper.  We know she was a stripper because she announced it to everyone.  Frankly, neither of us could give a rats ass what she did for a living - it was kind of interesting actually, but neither of us could abide the obnoxious part.  So my brother chased her from the table by sacrificing a couple of his own hands by splitting his 10's.    There is an old joke - how do you clear a seat for your buddy to sit in at a full table?  By splitting 10's - and it's absolutely true!  She took off immediately after he did it twice.  Then he went back to playing as he should.

Next post, I'll explain why this superstitious stuff is nonsense - but it can get to be heavy going, so I thought I'd end this post here.