Orlando's problem: No answer to LeBron James.
Cleveland's problem: No answer to Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.
While it's almost guaranteed to go seven games, and one never knows beforehand for sure, the edge has to go to Orlando.
LBJ had a franchise playoff record 49 points yesterday and a monster game overall. Yet that wasn't enough.
He can't, as Charles Barkley pointed out on TNT, be expected to have a monster game seven games in a row with a game every other night.
Before last night, I expected Cleveland to get to the NBA finals and to have the edge in the finals.
After seeing Orlando's resilience and the match up problems that they pose for Cleveland, I have to revise that estimate.
Resilience and a fighting spirit wins championships. And ... nobody can stand up to Superman in the paint, not even metal stanchions.
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Comments
But my point is that Orlando has to be given their due and their due is that I think they have to be favored, regardless of what the odds makers might be saying (I haven't checked).
You're right to be concerned about Orlando's 3 point shot sharpshooters. They've got an inside and an outside game, which is very hard to defeat.
The situation's not dire, yes, and the series is going to be extremely interesting and very hard fought. But Cleveland's got their hands very, very full.
This looks an awful lot like game one of the Magic's 1st round series--only with the roles reversed. In that game, Orlando had a terrible second half and got caught by an energetic team that had a chip on its shoulder. Let's not forget that Orlando recovered and won four of the next five to take the series.
Cleveland's fine. To say that the Cavs have "No answer to Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis" is simply not true. They're the best defensive team in the association. They just had one lousy half.
Cavs in 5 or 6 -- believe it.
The tide doesn't turn that quickly in the NBA. Now Denver and L.A., that will go seven. Go Denver. Go HOME Kobe.
Mike Brown will out coach Van Gumby/Ron Jeremy from here forward. The Cavs got way too comfortable last night and that's what they need. Look for Ben Wallace to go outside and stick Rashard Lewis in game two. He's big, but he does have multiple NBA Defensive Player of the Year awards.
Balanced scoring will win. The big lead that Cleveland had was the worst thing that could happen to them. They relaxed. That won't happen tomorrow night and Orlando is not a great home team. This isn't my first rodeo either. Defense will win it in the end and Cleveland plays better "team" defense than Orlando.
Monte
Tonight will tell us a lot. If the Magic blow them out then I think the series is lost.
Monte
With the strange exception of Hedo, who plays much worse at home than on the road, non-superstar NBA players do significantly more poorly on the road than at home. That means that the Cavs are even more likely to go down 3-1 after the next game in Orlando. They might, though it's not likely, pull it out and go even 2-2 in the next game. But they're not going to win the series either way, barring an injury to a couple of Orlando players or DQ/ejection for two games.