FEBRUARY 6, 2012 10:45AM

An Alabama Fan's Super 46 Lesson: Probabilities vs Principle

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I was rooting for the Patriots, since I lived there long enough to always love Boston. I had always been a Celtics fan, and so hanging out by the Garden and watching the Big Three make a title run was really cool, until of course game seven.

For the naysayers on the Big Three now, just remember that when they made that title run in 2010, in March, everyone at the deli right near Mattapan Station on Blue Hil Av was all down on Doc about their prospects. 

Such a wonderful city Boston is in so, so many ways.Cambridge is as cool as Berkely, and was first, and there is no better bookstore than the Coop, if the Raven is really cool too, as is that language store, in its genre, the best in the country I am sure too.

I was there in Boston for the loss to the Jets last year, and know well how it must be today, and so don't mean to poke at something, but just point out a different style of thinking: probabilities versus principle.

At the end of the game, having watched a lot of NFL football in Philly, where the Eagles got so, so close, only to lose to a bad salad or some such thing with Donnovan and Reid, such nice memories there, like pulling over the car to calm my son screaming that the Eagles suck like a real Eagles fan, I said to my Dad that "they have to let them score."

He thought that was odd, and yet on the next play, that is exactly what happened, with the Giants actually trying to avoid scoring, creating a funny picture of a winning touchdown as you will ever see, with Bradshaw trying not to do what comes naturally as a running back on the opponent's one inch line.

It makes sense probabilistically, as an NFL kicker on what would have been a 20 yard kick, mas o menos, is .95 probability, and no time more than 20 seconds would have been left, or timeouts either.

Bellicek did the right thing as to the style of play, as that's the NFL... and yet, after the game, I realized that I wasn't putting my Alabama thinking hat on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8cF4exw6oI

Alabama 12 Tennessee 10.

Cody blocked not one, but two field goals in the fourth quarter, if granted not from the 5 yard line.

Even without that, the mentality in Alabama would never, ever have allowed someone to score in order to get the ball back, as that's just not how things are done.

Then again, that's college, not the NFL, but, it does show the difference between probabilities, like Bellicek feels like he has to go with, versus principle, the latter of which in Alabama tradition would be: "Thou shalt do everything one can to prevent the enemy from scoring."

There's probably a lesson there for military folks too as far as remembering that defense wins championships as to getting over bold, as they say, "There are old soldiers, and bold soldiers, but no old bold soldiers."

As for Boston, the Celtics look to me like its too early to call it quits on the Big Three, and as for Boston too, you'll always have the Giants and New York to look forward to hating and rooting against, like most of the the East Coast too.

finis

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I knew you couldn't leave....wink
By the way, I also am very upset that my 'Egyptian Secret Policeman's Handbook' post did not receive an EP, massive exposure, and an offer from ther Egyptian Secret police to start writing their manuals for real....dubble wink
It was clearly deserving of an EP, but, how do you know that the Egyptian secret police didn't use that ... wink.
They also wouldn't have allowed anyone darker than a glass of milk play for them if Bear had been allowed to stick around and coach...just sayin'.

Sometimes being rational means doing things that seem completely counter-intuitive. Bryant, before the era of segregation in sports was, quite possibly, the greatest person to ever coach collegiate football...afterward, not so much.

It's never rational to root for the Pats...Belichick is a tool and Brady is a douchebag.

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/0c1345e1c8/women-for-eli-manning
Bear actually wanted to let blacks in before others did, not that he wasn't a product of his time on such things one would guess. But, whether it happened the way they said, which is doubtful, the story with Sam Cunningham and SC, in 72, is the truth in a deeper sense.
The story is that Cunningham came to the Tide locker room after running all over the place in a bad Bama loss, and Bear said, "This is what football players are going to look like a lot more in the future." Whether that literally happened isn't actually entirely clear, but, Bear wanted to win, and ... that meant integration, granted at a pace that in Alabama is always slower than some people would like, for good reason as to not liking if you're on that end of it, but, conservative places... they are what they are, and when they change, the change is often rather more profound, eventually, in a very imperfect world. Bellieck if that's spelled right has done very well, its just something that I could never see an Alabama coach, no matter how modern like Saban, do, as that just goes too much against the style of play people like here, which is a lot of defense, a lot of running, and when Bama recruits a kicker, a lot of field goals too, if, those guys made up for the LSU game rather well, ironically enough, kicking five field goals after missing four the first time. But Bear, he was Hayes, "Three yards, a cloud of dust, and a bucket of blood," and he never, ever, not in five billion years, would have said, "Let them score so we get the ball back." Although, statistically speaking, probability, it makes sense, but not on the principle of the defense, "don't ever let them score if you can help it, strip the ball, someone make a play on the kick."
I had a soccer coach in my very young years (10...11 years old, maybe) who said something so ridiculously every game, but so poignant that I could never believe that no other coach ever said it to me - if they can't score, they can't win.

In a game like basketball, and to some extent, baseball, you can't really play every game with that philosophy, but football? Hockey? Soccer? Absolutely. Don't let 'em score and the worst you can do is tie.

No one truly appreciates defense. They made Griffey Jr. quit jumping up the walls to take away the home runs of others because he would sometimes get hurt and not be able to hit his own home runs.

Manny Mendoza (another Seattle Mariner) was a truly great fielder and defensive player in the infield (I think they said he had the hands of a cloud...something like that), but he is known for his barely passable batting average.

I probably spelled Bill B's name wrong. Eastern European surnames are a bitch. Just ask Coach K(ry...huh?)
Hi Macolm XY. My soccer coach drilled that in me, as goalie, and it has some similarities to basketball: no uncontested layups.
The older goalie, a tough kid from New York named John Auerbach, transplanted to the wilderness for New York Jews of Alabama, and yet he liked Alabama in the end, if it ain't New York, told me, "If anyone gets a breakaway, you dive on that ball, and trip him, whatever, if he's going to get past you, but its like the NBA at playoff time: no uncontested layups. Make them hit their free throws, so to speak."
It was good advice, as I only got one penalty kick off of that theory, when I reached out and grabbed a forward's leg who had me beat, a little too obvious, and my only yellow card. I probably should have had a red card, but we only had 9 people that day anyway, so maybe they felt sorry for the goalie. 5-0 against a better team when you only have 9 was about as good as I could do that day, if it was depressing to be goalie that day. At least I didn't get kicked in the face on that theory, which happened more than once. That smarts.
But, in college, we were the geek and party frat squad, playing the fraternities with more money and better reputations than JHU Sig Ep in the mid 80s, and, I only gave up one goal in six games, and we beat the jock football fraternity, not once, but twice in a row, and on that theory: no goals means you don't lose, not even penalty kicks. The only goal I gave up, I violated my own rule, or principle; catch the ball, and flatten anyone in the way, don't punch it, since if you catch it, you have control." I went up on the corner kick, and started to punch like everyone kept saying, when if I had caught it... zero goals. But, we still won, and on your coaches theory: no goals means you don't lose. Even in basketball, if you make the other team work for every basket, when its showtime at the end, that's a good mentality to have. Look at Russel and Jordan. Yes, Jordan pushed off, but, Bryon Russell tried to flop. No one flops on MJ at the end of a game in the playoffs, even if he did clearly foul Russell. But that's my pet NBA peeve. Oh, those Jazz teams.... but then MJ and Pippen, they were really good defenders, along with Harper, and most championships teams, they have good defenses, so your principle applies.
oh yeah...jordan was great on defense (he was great wiping the sweat from his brow...he was great at every aspect of the game).

Who really talks about his defense, though? Who, in the history of sports, is regaled for their defensive skills?

Most Chicago Middle Linebackers, probably, perhaps the Steel Curtain Steelers Defense of the mid-late 70s (Jack Ham and Lambert are 2 of my favorite players of all time) or the Purple People Eaters of Minnesota's 70's rosters...Ronnie Lott, Ray Lewis, and a couple others.

I have no idea who the Roberto Alomars or Kenny Loftons or Dennis Rodmans or Bill Laimbeers of today are, though (and, Lofton was more known for his on-base percentage than his ability to run down a line drive in center field).

Defense isn't entertaining, and people want entertainment in their sports, just like everything else. It's why pro wrestling is so popular.


As a side note, and with respect to those Utah Jazz teams I despised as well (seriously...change the name...it made sense in New Orleans, but now it just sounds stupid)m, but I often contend that Kemp/Payton were the greatest power-forward/point guard combo in NBA history.

Obviously an argument can be made for Malone/Stockton, Cheeks/Barkley (though, he was more of a small forward), Magic/Worthy (but again, Worthy was really a small forward who occasionally played in the 4 spot).

The argument I always make against my own assertion (I'm a home team guy...I'm gonna try to elevate those 2 until I have no more breath with which to do so) is that Jordan was really a 1 guard who was put at the 2 spot, and all point guards he played with, with the exception of BJ Armstrong, were really undersized 2 guards they put at point, but who really played like 2 guards with the exception of bringing the ball up to half court after dead balls.

And, Jordan and ANYONE are the best 1/4 combo in history...even an offensive mess like Rodman.
I mean, look at the downward slide Pippen's career took after Jordan retired. Was Pippen really that good, or did Jordan make him look that good for the years they played together?
The runner was a sitting duck on the goal line--perfect opportunity for someone to pop the ball out.

I'm sounding like Dick Nixon sending plays to Redskins' coach George Allen--as I was in 08.
Hi Con. Kind of rough there in Boston, but, either way, it was a dicey situation really. One catch... one loose ball on a long Giants reception, and, its a different story around the campfire too. Its just funny as to mentality, and I was in my NFL mentality then, when if it was Alabama hat... not gonna happen.
Kemp and Peyton were really good Malcolm. Pippen, that was late in his career, and he was a little heady of a player, and so lead dog, that wasn't going to work for him, but as a defender... and of course, when they had Rodman, that was... hard to deal with, although, that was a total Rodman flop on the rebound. Those Pacers teams gave the Bulls a good run too. I liked the Bulls, when they beat the Knicks, partly because of a Knicks fan I knew, and they were still the underdogs against the Lakers when it started. After a while.... can someone else win... And yes, the Jazz is silly in Utah, but, why change what's sill now. What could they call them anyway, the ... Angels?
So, you were playing Nixon Con... that didn't go well then as I recall, which is why there are people who write about sports and people who do it, like teaching as they say. :)