For Megan, Eric, and Barry Rich.

The author predicted the severity of the economic crisis and its cause dating to 2005. The article on the fiscal consequences of the implosion of the real estate market was correct as to the net effects on the budget, account for that was one will: I said trillions, and trillions it has been in toto, as to credibility.

As to the latest budget deal, its sloppy, imperfect, and totally inevitble, and not bad as to its likely consequences.

The budget deal is sloppy, because it was pieced together in a process that wouldn't look good in a textbook as to how one should rationally match ends and means.

That's life. If we had a benevilent, all-powerful, and infinitely lived dictatior who was worth $100 billion, he could do a better job, right until because of the fact that no mortal meets that criterion, even worse things happened than that generated by our democratic process.

Thus, the budget deal was imperfect.

That's life.

It was also totally inevitable, and under the circumstances, not at all bad.

It was totally predictable, because once one got away from the framework of the Simpson-Bowles Commission appointed by President Obama, which had flatter if still progressive rates and a broader tax base generated by eliminating many sacred cow deductions, good luck passing that may have been the calculation, then we were going to have to rig something.

When I cleaned floors at night, that was a popular phrase as to gettting the equipment provided by our borderline fly-by night employer:"Yo, just put a rig on that john."

We never killed ourselves or anyone else, and thus, although budgeting by "putting a rig on that john" may not meet the criteria of rationality for accountants or economists, that's the political process for you in a democracy, sloppy, which is bad, but better than the alternatives.

As to the payroll tax cut being maintained, along with the Bush rates, of course there are long run issues with doing that, but, what politician is going to want to make moves to alter either in an election year: zero.

Moreover, the payroll tax cut if instantly lifted would constitute a significant drag on the economy, since it is so visible to consumers: "Wow, I lost $40 last week. Guess no pizza tonight."

Although one wouldn't want to run an economy on the basis of pizza night, and this has to end sometime, we already know from the budget exercise this summer that there aren't the votes right now to do anything but "put a rig on that john," and, so long as our creditors don't react too negatively, and that's not very likely when you look around the interantional system as to viable alternatives, for now, then the budget deal avoided some real problems, which isn't half bad in the world that we live in, even if, as is the case, we are soon going to have to make some fundamental decisions about the role of government, but that's what elections are for anyway.

finis.