MARCH 3, 2012 12:29PM

Thermidor Comes To Arab Spring In Syria? I, Thucydides

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For MEB, always. You have always, and always will be, very much loved. And for Thucydides, the first and therefore most important political and social scientist, and because he wrote not prize essays for the moment, but as for possessions of all time.

I, Thucydides, am Realism. I existed before the Pelopennesian War for which I am known for writing about between 431 and 410 B.C., and after, like with my soulmates who composed the Arthashastra and the Zhongkuotse, and as Realism will exist forever, until He returns, if Alexander was one of His messengers, an Angel of Death for Persians.

I, Thucydides, write this not as a prize essay for the moment, but as a possession for all time, since it is in the nature of things that human nature not so much really changing, therefore what has happened before will, changing what is necessary to keep the sense of things, mutatis mutandi, happen again.

I, Thucydides, tell you that the stasis, or what you call the civil war, in Syria was because of a dying oligarchy rooted in an ideology long past its prime called Baathism.

I, Thucydides, tell you that although Baathism had its time and place as a fusion of Arab nationalism and socialism, in the end, among the Arab peoples, Islam was what truly united them, making the secularism of the Baath in both Iraq and Syria, and also its variant in Egypt under Nasser, not viable to maintain the power of the Syrian oligarchy in the long run.

I, Thucydides, tell you that as to Bashar al Assad's relationship to Baath dictator and founder Hafiz al Assad in all of these events, like my Chosun Reservoir people the Koreans say, "father tiger, son dog."

(Grandson, sometimes skip generations, as a cycle of timeless Oedipal rebellion.)

I, Thucydides, therefore explain for you that once the Arab Spring started therefore, the contagion effect was bound to hit Syria with particular force, which fortunately so far for the regime, and unfortunately for my friends in the Syrian Revolutionary movement, ran into a broader set of Great Power considerations that made it likely the Syria would be the Thermidor of the Arab Spring, although it made me weep too for the many dead that followed the rapes and tortures of Bashar al Assad, whose family still has the blood of 241 Marines on their hands.

I, Thucydides, hoped that what was evident in the nature of possibilities was done, which was a bombardment of Damascus and other Baath targets on a scale never before seen in human history, even greater than that faced by the evil twin of the Baathist al Asssad regime: Saddam Hussein.

I, Thucydides, observed that it was in the nature of things that 80 B-1B bombers could bring down a bombardment on the al Assad regime that started with a time compressed strike of 1,600 Joint Direct Attack Munitions in the opening waves, accompanied by 500 cruise missiles launched from the sea, which then could be followed by round the clock airstrikes on that scale until Bashar al Assad was dead and his regime effaced from history, like the 241 Marines his father killed in 1983: gone, but never forgotten.

Unfortunately, I, Thucydides, explain for you that the Russian and Chinese oligarchies strenuously objected to such a totally just and feasible act, on the theory that they themselves were vulnerable to the contagion of the Arab Spring, and also because they wished to deter America from attacking Iran over the nuclear weapons program they themselves encouraged, and clandestinely supplied, and all in order to weaken Israel, and thereby strike at America indirectly.

I, Thucydides, explain for you that America had a choice then, to live up to its principles and defend its interests, and the risks that sometimes entails, or not, and chose not to act: so far.

Thus, my friends in the Syrian Revolution as you ponder what is in store for you, remember how in fact it was I, Thucydides, returned briefly from my Spartan exile for credibility and on my part seeking mercy for the women and children of Melos, who pleaded before the Melians in 416 B.C., and protect your lives, and especially those of your women and children, the latter at all costs, although I grieve for you and your brave cause, as I wept after Melos, after refusing to listen to me, was sacked and burned, after all the men of military age were all killed, and all the women and children were raped and then sold into slavery by the same mentality that will govern Bashar al Assad should he be allowed to prevail:

"Melians, I, Thucydides, will not speak of the justice of our Athenian empire, and you will not speak of the justice of your five hundred years of freedom, but I, Thucydides, will instead speak as practical people always speak among the armed groups that always control States, that it is a law of nature that the strong seek such terms as they can get, and that the weak in turn accept such terms as they must. Lay down your weapons, or die."

(Of course, I,Thucydides, favorite person of all time was the Spartan who led the 300, Leonidas, who when so ordered to surrender his weapons by the Persian King of King Xerxes merely said: "Molon labe:" come and get them. If that is the choice of my friends in the Syrian Revolution, I understand too, and respect your choice, and pray the Gods may somehow find favor with your cause.)

Or, I,Thucydides, say America can live up to its principles, and send a message loud and clear to Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing, and avenge the 241 Marines killed by Assad's father, by unleashing B-1Bs in the largest sequence of airstrikes in history, and then station them at Diego Garcia with a large Patriot and THAAD complement, and give the Syrian Revolution a fighting chance, like America did with Gaddafi, and at the same time warn especially China but also Russia not to dally with Iran, and to also warn Iran to cease and desist with a nuclear weapons program that is a menace to every country on Earth by the response it is predictably generating from a country they keep saying they will destroy.

finis

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Donny/Thucydides, look who's urging war now. Good for you, oh ancient Greek/geek hiztorian, come back to life! But I think you're wrong about Prez Obongo. He will allow the initiative to slip away because he can't bring himself to alienate the Demokratic Peace Party...or at least he'll keep postponing a decision, and so lose the initiative to others anyway. RIP to the otherwise preventable US military deaths that will occur because of this Hamlet like posturing.
I wish this would happen- bombing Syria. But, the cost would be arms race and serious loss of ability to talk reasonably with China or Russia. Its just misery- Syrians deaths and no end in sight. How strong the protesters are and with so little.
Time will tell, and yet its timeless as to Thucydides having something to always think about. Always, for he wrote as he said, not a prize essay for the moment, but as a possession for all time.