MARCH 2, 2012 9:59AM

The Curious Feature of Putin "Murder Plot": Odessa

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It hasn't gotten a lot of coverage in the United States, and maybe it, it being the alleged plot to murder Vladimir Putin, will go away, because Putin's clearly going to win, and when the "plot" was conceived in effect, that wasn't necessarily the case, which would have been the point of the plot, if that's what happened.

Nonetheless, there remains one rather important feature of the plot, namely its alleged location: Odessa, Ukraine.

That's interesting for one obvious reason, and one not so obvious, although if you know history well-enough it is obvious, which would of course be the secondary, subtle point, although of course, such things as Chechens wanting to kill the man who leveled Grozni like Putin happen all the time too.

The Putin plot is still interesting first as to the obvious point about Odessa, because it pretty clearly indicates that Ukraine is on the Bears team again.

That matters in terms of the Central Balance of Power in Europe, since when you add Ukraine to Byelorus, which is the case with the latter very clearly, then that makes the Bears not a country of 140 million, but more like 200 million, with a lot of oil, gas, and of course nuclear weapons, which is to say not a state to trifle with.

Moreover, if you look at the migration of other states within the former Soviet Union proper back to Moscow in a general sense as to overall economic, political, and social-linguistic orientation, these all in conjunction makes the Bears a big player again, like it or not, ofwhich Putin's "Odessa File" is but another hint.

Now of course, things are done for all sorts of reasons, and maybe it was just a bunch of Chechens actually looking to kill Putin, as he certainly made plenty of enemies there in 1999, when after that curious set of bombings in Moscow, Putin, as he likes to put it, "took those Chechen bastards to the shithouse to kill them," by levelling Grozni with high altitude area bombing.

Even if, though, the "Odessa File" plot really was Chechens, the implications of the way the plot was revealed would make the above analysis as to power implications still hold both with respect to Ukraine in this case, and in the more general sense as to the drift of things in the former Soviet space not looking as much "former" as it used to be being the point in terms of the overall balance of power, or what the Russians still call the "correlation of forces."

And as to location and a secondary curiosity of this Odessa File, although this is just a historical observation, something happened in Odessa once a little over a century ago, something horrible to a diaspora population,

Its curious if maybe in some minds that "murder plot" episode was also a subtle warning in part about a certain actor in the international system not tempting fate, since it has hostages outside of it, like it did in Odessa a long time ago?

Or of course, it could just be a bunch of incompetent Chechens, as such thing happen all the time, if, anyway you look at it, Ukraine is back onsides with the Bears, which makes the Bears not a has-been any more.

finis

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