The argument to be presented is that since "if you want peace, prepare for war" is a Roman aphorism for good reason, so too is the Israeli-American relations corollary: "if you need to reassure Israelis, give them lots of weapons, especially if they don't ask. Then force weapons on them."

Israel's reaction to Arab Spring is the most important one, and so why signficant numbers of the Israeli policy and power elite might not like it very much is both important and predictable from one aphorism: the devil you know.

Mubarak was nothing if not the devil you knew, keeping the peace in Sinai, and at least as importantly sitting on Hamas outside of Gaza.

Even Assad is the devil you know, if much more literally than Mubarak, who actually was a pretty good guy in regional context, compared to Saddam, Assad, or other states who of course remain nameless as to the women's rights he preserved, now about to be stripped away to some extent by the Muslim Brotherhood, if they may move cautiously because they know they need the aid package because of the collapse of tourism, which would accelerate if tourists have to wear burkhas or even the hejab.

Time will tell, but given the risk tolerances of the Israeli state, fundamentally low for some obvious reasons, if you want to prevent a preemptive Israeli reaction, giving them lots more weapons makes sense, since people who are suspicious for understandable historical reasons especially get nervous when the devil they know goes away in the Arab Spring.

If you want peace in the Middle East, give Israel lots of weapons, and then if the Arabs complain, you can sell them smaller amounts of weapons, to keep the peace.

finis