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NOVEMBER 9, 2012 8:48PM

Why Conservatives Need to Work With Obama II: Iran & Allies

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Iran is allied de facto to the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, the latter of whom are both nuclear-armed states, Russia of the first order.

The academic literature is very clear on this point, that to show t00 much domestic Power Elite disunity is fundamentally dangerous when contemplating a use of force situation, which like it or not is on the table with Iran, because if they don't swerve, Israel may well go first, and then Iran's response might well require a massive American effort anyway, e.g. attacks on shipping from the littoral areas of Iran.

In fact, knowing that Israel may well go first, Iran may well go first instead, most especially if we don't look like we have it going on over here, like with a budget. Japan did that when they were hit with everyone's favorite phrase "crippling sanctions." Of course you would rather there be a deal over Iran's nuclear program, which points to the need to find one, if of course that's possible, but then that latter uncertainty is why it is vital to do what one can to avoid avoidable risks, like looking hopelessly deadlocked on the most basic of governmental questions: a budget.

That is the fundamental reason Conservatives need to accept some things about Obama II, like it or not, even though the margin of victory and as a practical matter Republican control of the House and its composition means compromise is a two-way street, or some fraction between say one third and two third.

Flipping coins and splitting differences has justifications in optimization theory and game theory, not to mention common experience, just as pissing contests often have poor results empirically.

But to ignore the fact that we continue on a military collision course with Iran, again because if we don't induce a deal Israel may well go on its own, and Iran's response we might well not could ignore, and all that with an Iran which has potential military allies in Russia and China a la outrance, e.g. exchanges of nuclear deterrence threats, or even "just" conventional military deployments that are obvious as to geography, is not conservative as to what Adam Smith identified correctly as the first function of government: national security.

Compromise is a two-way street too as to what will hopefully be the nature of Obama II, as was Clinton II, as to if one must use old tax rates and current tax rates as a baseline for the basic argument, for which at least there is the argument of time and familiarity, there exists by its mathematical nature some graph that shows rates gently moving upwards at a steeper rate, if not one would think to the same level, and only over time, to avoid a policy shock to the economy, and to help avoid the biggest policy shock of all, which anywhere and everywhere is war, the outcome of which no one knows for sure, as all plans die on contact with the enemy.



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If Obama had more of a devil may care attitude about his second term, he would enter into a no-holds barred series of high level, one on one discussions with the Iranian government. After all, if FDR could recognize Joe Stalin in 1933, why can't we recognize a much less powerful and menacing country like Iran.

Of course, this is not going to happen -- as everyone inside the "Washington consensus" is lily-livered and afraid of "cozying up to terrorists." Another tropism would be "stabbing Israel in the back." So don't hold your breath on something like recognition of Iran happening.

Of course, it wouldn't be in the Ayatollah's interest to make nice with the Great Satan either.

Frankly, I don't care if Iran were to actually make an A-bomb. The argument could be made that this would actually strengthen the American hand in the Gulf if the US could show resolve and practice containment and mutual assured destruction of Iran if it launched against either Saudi Arabia or Israel, etc. By actually having deterrence, it would end Israeli hegemony in particular, which I think would be a wonderful thing.
I am sorry to be slow to respond, but Old Lefty, Israel is very unlikely to accept such a thing in and of itself.