Think about this: It’s election day. Barack Obama has a one or two percentage point lead in national polls and similar leads in the key states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. You vote. I vote. Everyone votes. We go home and turn on our TV’s, maybe make some popcorn. And then the numbers start coming in. It’s McCain all over the place. The small leads have disappeared and every tie goes to McCain. He wins and we’re all so screwed.
“’Obama will need a clear pre-election poll lead over McCain to win; a tie isn’t going to do it for him, in all probability,’ said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. ‘It’s naïve to expect that there won’t be some racial leakage on election day.’” (Fox News)
This is what we get, I guess, for nominating the candidate we wanted instead of the candidate who could win. And this time around, the candidate who could win actually could have won. Hillary Clinton had not only the political experience and political machine to demolish John McCain, but people were really excited about her.
Dissatisfaction with the President and his party are so high that the Democrats had the opportunity to win even by picking the right person instead of the best candidate, even if he’s black and his middle name sounds like a target for our next holy war.
I hate to say it, but it sure was risky.
So now here we are, 45 days out, and an AP/Yahoo poll shows that Obama’s support could be six points higher if he weren’t black. Just imagine his 50% to 44% lead in today’s Gallup tracking poll bumped by six points. There’s the big lead that the Democrats are supposed to have in this race.
And for all those who are too racist or ignorant to vote for a black man, there are many more who just need a little prodding. We’ve already seen Obama’s scary black minister and his Muslim faith (cognitive dissonance required) and his Kenyan family and his terrorist friends. What do the Republicans have in store for the next month and a half? Surely something, particularly as their desperation increases.
And then there’s the matter of those polls. Aside from those who outwardly won’t support him, there are those who pretend that they will or that they’re undecided. It’s called the Bradley Effect, named after a black gubernatorial candidate in California whose poll leads into election day disappeared at the polling stations.
The likelihood of that happening to this candidate is, I think, much lower. The Bradley election was over twenty-five years ago, since which many of those voters have died and many new ones have been born. Polling techniques and technology have advanced also in ways that should mitigate such a disparity. But it probably does exist to a degree. So will there be a horrible surprise?
There’s only one way to find out.
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Joan Walsh
Kerry Lauerman
Skeptic Turtle
Saturn Smith
natesmith124
Salon.com
Comments
Here's Stanford University poll I was looking at last night. Now what do you think?
The AP poll shows some nasty stuff.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html
If Obama wins surprisingly strong (could happen), we will suddenly "know" so much. If he loses (could happen) we will suddently know about all sorts of things as well.
It's hard to believe anybody knows how Clinton would be doing, although it's not hard to set up arguements either way. Smart people are doing that all over the web.
It seems to always just come down to personal feelings of pleasure. The smart people who wanted Clinton "know" it was a risky mistake not to elect her. The smart people who wanted Obama "know" he would generate more new voters and at least match her independent grab. It's a lot like a Rorshack test.
If he loses, the "I told you so's" will be deafening. If he wins, I doubt any of that will ever come up. It's all fear I think.
So far I don't see any evidence pointing to anything other than very close elections for presidency, unless of course, McCain literally falls down a couple times durning the debate. If Obama is the one who gets to help him to his feet, landslide.
The only poll I have any faith in is whichever one indicates that either candidate could easily win this election.
We need to roll up our sleeves and canvass, talk to our neighbors (just had one of those conversations in the grocery store a bit ago) and work towards Obama's election. I my humble opinion, if I don't do the groundwork to help him get elected, I will not be justified in complaining when he doesn't.
I agree with you entirely. If any of us is honest with ourselves, that little bit of discomfort we feel from time to time is a vestige of what we have worked to change within ourselves.
I was raised by people who had redneck racists views. By the time I was thinking for myself I knew my family was reflecting a weakness based in ignorance. There is a moment when you step out and take the risk, even when you are uncomfortable because you don't want that discomfort to rule your life anymore. All of my siblings broke that barrier and things have changed.
If people wants Obama to be their 'one black friend,' if that gets him elected there will be an opportunity to continue with the enlargement of their circle of friends.
I remember a song we used to teach the children at Unitarian sunday school:
"Make new friends, but keep the old
One is silver and the other gold"
Time is alchemical in relationships.
This speaks to sierrasong's point above. Let's each do our part and not have to feel guilty later.