Trouble is brewing in Black Sea Georgia yet again. According to embattled president Mikhail Saakashvili, a group of Russian-backed mutiny-minded Georgian Army officers attempted to overthrow the government yesterday. They wanted to get rid of the president prior to today's scheduled NATO exercise. Saakashvili's forces thwarted the coup and now a pro-government t.v. station is airing taped "confessions" that spell out the diabolical details of Moscow's "treacherous plans."

According to key opposition figures, including former pro-Saakashvili parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze, the supposed coup is a homegrown distraction. They say that Saakashvili has invented this latest controversy to pull attention away from the massive Tbilisi protests that have the president gasping for his political life.

Unfortunately for Saakashvili, this all looks eerily similar to how his government "took care of" the November 2007 opposition protests. Seventeen months ago Saakashvili proclaimed on television that the opposition coalition was in bed with Moscow. He then called in the army to violently disperse the protesters and shut down the main opposition tv station. With the help of some questionable taped "confessions," he drove several key opposition figures into exile and called for a hasty special election. Despite a certain level of popular skepticism, Saakashvili won, thus reclaiming his Rose Revolution mandate.

Ten months later, Russia's well-planned and calculated August 2008 power grab invasion seemed to legitimize at least some of Saakashvili's November claims. But this time around, the popular skepticism seems more likely harden.

The odds are stacked against the American-educated former darling of the West. I personally doubt that Saakashvili will make it to the end of the year. He and his dwindling supporters will tell you that Saakashvili's seemingly inevitable fall will be a huge victory for Moscow. Even now, they may still be right.

(photo of anti-Saakashvili protest banner in Tbilisi)

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Update: The Christian Science Monitor's Fred Weir covers the region better than anyone else working in the mainstream U.S. media. Here's his excellent reporting on the tense situation.

Weir frames the current crisis in Tbilisi as a politcal power struggle between Russia and NATO, as well as a clash between Saakashvili and his in-country rivals.

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I spent three months in Georgia in late 2007 and I've previously posted Open Salon blogs about the country here:

Moscow expands military influence in Georgia

The E.U. brokered settlement screws Georgia again

U.S. sending new $1 billion aid package to Georgia

Cindy McCain heads to Georgia

Russia is crushing the Georgian economy

Georgia is a victim of a Cold War that never really died

Misha's mistakes... and what about Georgia's 200,000+ IDPs??

Gori Memories