It all comes down to tonight's game...

A franchise best regular season, a league MVP award, record t.v. ratings and a 44-3 home record could all morph into mere asterisks on the pages of hoops history if the Cavs struggle again tonight. The Magic own this series. Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, the Michael Jordan of Turkey and even Michael Pietrus look to have tapped into some basketball destiny that the analysts, fans and marketers failed to envision.

Commissioner Stern’s Kobe v. Lebron dream could vanish like a puff of chalk dust in just a few hours.

I think Cleveland will win tonight, but I’m less confident in King James & Co. than I’ve been all year. Everyone’s talking about Orlando’s obvious match-up advantages--specifically that Cleveland struggles mightily to effectively guard the trio of Turkoglu, Howard and Lewis. The Magic's big three exposed a gaping hole in Cleveland’s almost-but-not-quite roster. The Cavs desperately need another athletic swingman with size and defensive abilities to play alongside Lebron. They don’t need another star, just someone like Marvin Williams or Tayshaun Prince or Jemario Moon who can defend Turkoglu and Lewis on the perimeter as well as near the bucket. The guys Cleveland has who have the size to fit into that role are either grossly overmatched (Pavlovic, Wally) or not good enough to get on the floor (Jawad Williams, Tarence Kinsey, Darnell “Lacktion” Jackson).

Then there’s the other Orlando-exposed flaw that less people mention: Cleveland coach Mike Brown is in way over his head. Van Gundy has out-coached Brown in every game this series. Just take a look at the second half statlines. Brown’s strategy down the stretch remains, “give Lebron the ball and pray.” It worked in game two because, well, it’s Lebron James. But it didn’t work the other night. And it doesn’t work for any other coach with any respectability (just ask Mike Woodson how his similar “give it to Joe Johnson and pray” strategy has been playing out during fourth quarters over the past few years). I still can’t believe that Brown won the Coach of the Year award.

I suppose all that’s left to do now is watch the game. And I can’t help but root for Lebron to save the day. The city of Cleveland needs to keep the dream alive, if only for another couple of days...

(photo by Keith Allison via wikimedia commons)