Frank, you and I often disagree on politics, that being said I think you may be wrong about Obama's chances in November. Still, if I were to pick who I thought would be the least dangerous Republican it would for now, be Romney. He strikes me as less insane than Santorum, Paul, or the vile hypocrite Gingrich. We are faced with a choice that is no choice. How long will it be before the people see that they are just being played for fools by both parties and bring the whole government to a screeching halt?

I'm soooo cynical that I have come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter in the least who the president is. First of all, they're not king; can only do so much. Secondly, I believe they are no more than puppets, the strings of which are being manipulated by whoever has the REAL power (follow the money). Sooo... fuck it

Anything can happen but I cannot imagine why you feel he will lose.

Unless, of course, Ronald Reagan come back from the dead.

I think I'll get my Irish passport and get the heck out!

@Frank Apisa

I am as certain that President Obama is going to win reelection as you are that he will loose. From what I see I don't understand how you sustain your negative outlook. The President is rising in the polls, the eventual Republican nominee is going to be bruised by the end of the contest, and since debate seems to be the weapon of choice for this season I call advantage President Obama.
Give it a try, rethink this thing and join us who are working to make sure your hellish vision doesn't come to pass.

I am voting for Obama. I am hoping with all my heart that we stays in office. I dont' want to imagine how horrific our country under Newt or Romney would be. they are the frontrunners, after all.

I meant "he" stays in office.

Frank, how ironic.

I think Obama will win and I hate that he will. The oligarchs want him in. The one-percenters have neutered the progressives by having Obama as president and letting the faux-progressives stomp all over the messengering real progressives.

There would be more opposition to the one percenters if a Republican were in office. An illumination of how the party leadership was really the same since the rank and file would not be seduced by team cronyism. All that MSNBC talent would really be invested in going against Team Republican, rather than rationalizing and justifying the nightmare betrayal of Team Dem, which begats cronyism and corporate propaganda.

The oligarchs who sponsor murderous wars for profit need Obama to play Lucy and the football, internationally, since Africa et al., are slow to get, but catching up after NATO-tasering of shock and awe or secret black ops murders by droning or whatever, how Obama is shredding the constitution back home, continuing to shred it from the Bush era, and the fact that he is of a minority and also a president reflects democracy in America when he is, alas, as Glen Ford says, an inside man for oligarchs and it was just a very smart marketing tool to have him so good at rhetoric and so bad in character.

Don't think that the election roster reflects any major players except EXACTLY who the oligarch one percenters want. The media ensures that for them.

Lots of nice things being said about Ellen Stein of the Green Party but media and lemming citizenry don't begin to give a crap. That would mean a real paradigm shift.

libby

oops, correction, Jill Stein of Green Party. my bad. libby

I am confident Obama will win. I am voting for him again. He outmaneuvered Hillary Clinton to the White Houses. This gang of clowns has no chance.

Also, don't forget the Royalty Factor, which is that in most elections, the candidate with more Anglo-French royal genes tends to win the election. Obama has the most from his mother's side. Only Romney comes close.

OK Frank...you wrote on which of the 4 you think will do the least harm and came up with Mitt Romney. Which of the 4 do you think can/would do the most good?
...and do you think there will be a "Draft Chris Christy" movement?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Frank.. he is not going to lose.. I cannot see any other of those Keystone Cops running this country.
HUGGGGGGGG

Hey Bobbot, I hope you are right that Obama wins in November…but I have serious doubts.

Trig…thanks for commenting. No matter what, someone will be in the Oval Office making appointments and doing the things that presidents do. I want Obama…very much. But if the other guys win, I think Romney is the best that could happen.

D’art…right! Ronald Reagan…NO…but I would take four more years of George W. over Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum.

Joanne…escape is not an option. ;-) Who would you pick out of the three?

Anthony, I am not “certain” he will lose…but I think it certainly is more than a remote possibility. I’m too old to do much house-to-house for any candidate, but I am doing as many letters to the editor and forum debate comments in favor of Obama as I can.

Erica…I don’t even want to think of what will happen to our society if Gingrich gets in.

Hey Libby. I hope you are right about the eventual outcome…with Obama winning, even though I get that you will be very unhappy with that result. Your point that “There would be more opposition to the one percenters if a Republican were in office. “…but I am more worried about the negative impact of a Republican presidency than any minor positives that may accrue. And “more opposition” in my opinion would be relatively minor compared with the real damage they will inflict. I think Jill Stein is a long shot….VEEERRRYYY long, but I wish you luck.

Surazeus…I wish I were confident that he will win. Romney does seem to be the pick of this particular litter.

Walter…not sure if any of the four would do “more good” than a Democratic win. (Remember, I am NOT a Democrat!) In any case, I think Christy would be below Gingrich on my list! I’m from New Jersey and I see the kind of person he is…and do not like it at all.

Thanks everyone for stopping in. Lots more to this story.

Oops, Hey Linda. Let's hope!!!

Don't even think this. Seriously. It's like eating rat poison. One day at a time as they say. We won't know til we know.

He's not going to lose Frank and it's far too late to put someone else on the ticket. Romney would be the first choice of those who brought this country to it's knees, that's why Warren Buffett stated it's not Romney's fault. Warren is the friendly grandpa who is generous upon expiration.

The other candidates know the deal, when they don't win, they will be given treats by those who make money from money, not work. If not, Obama is no threat to them, Congress will continue to do whatever it likes to those who have to work for a living.

Obama, Romney, whoever, it matters not. They will gut social security next (new code word entitlement), it's the last piece of the pie. All the other social programs have been gutted. There aren't enough payroll taxes from the 99% to support it with wages declining.

Libby is right and the progressives were neutered long ago. Remember it was Clinton that gave us GATT, NAFTA and the repeal of Glass-Steagall. And Gingrich was in hog heaven over it. I wasted 9 years of my life living and breathing legislation and fighting future harm. Wasted hours on the phone with Aides, going to meetings, fairs, writing, guesting on local radio shows. I'd have been better off enjoying my free time not tracking bills and not bothering my "pretty little head" over such things.

Simply put, in 1991 & 1994 they gave us Free Trade, in 1999 they let the banks and investment houses form incestous relationships. Factories are gone so jobs CAN'T come back quickly, and Capital rules both parties now. Obama will win and it matters not. Clinton also ended Welfare and most safety nets have been gutted since then. Thank God we had both houses and Nancy Pelosi pushed raising minimum wage or it would be worse.

Progressives have been made irrelevant so we must all do what we can to survive. This is not the first time life in the US was harsh for most. Life can be harsh but trust me, most things can be overcome, the strong will survive. Hang in there, we must all stay strong.

I have a question about your appetite for risk based on the two options below:

A) Romney vs. Obama, 65% Romney wins - Obviously Romney doesn’t scare you nearly as much as Newt, but based on the indicated percentage, Obama would likely lose.

B) Gingrich vs. Obama, 35% Gingrich wins - Sure you have a better chance of winning should Gingrich be the candidate, but losing would mean at least four years of Newt as your Commander in Chief.

Corollary question: What would the percentage have to be to change your mind?

Meh. Mitt Romney nationally cannot get the support of even 40 percent of those within his own party. (Source: http://pollingreport.com/wh12rep.htm)

It's hard to see the Repugnican Tea Partiers being excited about voting for Romney in November to the point that they'll unseat the incumbent, which in most presidential elections with an incumbent running for a second term is difficult to do.

Obama is a deep disappointment, but if I had to bet a large sum of money on which way it will go, I'd bet that he keeps his job, in no small part because the Repugnican Tea Party traitors are so fractured.

Frank - I think you're beingmuch too pessimistic. I think Obama will squeek in again.....

Florida primary is next week.......my fascist neighborhood (smile) is filled with Ron Paul signs. Last primary it was filled with Fred Thompson signs. Both Romney and Newt are having problems will the Republican hispanics - especially Cubans. Romney will carry the hispanic voters but Newt will carry the non-hospanic Republicans.

Think of it this way - a GOP victory in November will make things worse to the middle class - what's left of it. Maybe they will rise up and wise up.

:-)

greenheron…can’t help but think about it. It comes to my mind often. I really don’t have a choice…and telling me not to do it is like telling me not to think about an elephant. But thanks for the comment.

Bleue…I’m happy you think he will not lose…and that you are pretty certain of it. I gotta tell ya, though, I would have bet the ranch that George W. Bush would never serve a second term. I agree with you that progressives have been made irrelevant, but I think they have been instrumental in their own demise. (But that is for another thread.) I agree with you about Libby being right on many things, but I have been trying to present the case that liberals/progressives have become their own worst enemy. (We’re still pretty far apart on that!)

Johnny…thanks for stopping by. I would like to know where these figures come from. Are they just stuff made up? Explain the hypothetical a bit more and I will respond completely.

Robert…thanks for commenting. You are right about the ceiling of support for Romney among conservatives and Republicans. That is why I fear they will choose Gingrich…and I think the economy will go further in the tank and a possible mid-East crisis may make the Republican choice the winner—even if by accident. My thing here is just to discuss my thoughts about who I would most like to be the nominee if that should happen. (Very early on I said I though Gingrich would be the nominee…even though he is a scumbag. But under the right circumstances, a scumbag can win, as we all know!)

Toritto…I am definitely being pessimistic…but whether or not I am being “too” pessimistic we will only know when November comes. (The conversations about Cuba during last night’s debate sure was strange to my ears. Things must be changing down there in Florida among the Cuban exiles.)

Hi Frank, I think you make a plausible argument about Obama's reelection chances. A lot hinges on drops in unemployment and the recalcitrant Congress continuing to stymie the President's agenda.

There's a chance he could win. One has to do the electoral math, though, and I perceive you've done that.

Perhaps the GOP Punch and Judy fest will continue...only continued bloodying the GOP candidates will make them unelectable.

Despite the fact I think they’re reasonable, my numbers are made-up. I’m a Romney supporter so I get the best of both worlds, the candidate with the best chance to beat Obama and the candidate I like the most. But generally speaking, liberals don’t have that choice, sure they choose Obama in both scenarios, but should he lose to Newt, an “abomination” would occupy the White House. So once again, which option would a liberal “at position P” choose:

A) Romney vs. Obama, 65% Romney wins

B) Gingrich vs. Obama, 35% Gingrich wins

Corollary question: What would the percentage have to be to change your mind?

I share your concern, not because any of the R's are worthy of replacing Obama, but because so many on the Left are disenchanted with him and are going to vote third-party on not at all in order to protest that he hasn't magically reversed thirty years of Grovering govt and Romneying the economy in his first term.

As one of them put it to me, a vote for the lesser of two evils is a vote for evil. What such people fail to comprehend is that their utopian insensibility is in effect a vote FOR the worser of two evils. Simply put, these folks aren't too good at even this most basic of arithmetic problems.

I don't think his probability of losing is half, but more like .47. He has an agenda that the Republicans would be wise to work with on the budget, immigration, it's all in the State of the Union address, and yes, that is Romneylike, in the middle, with the majority of the American people, and the incentives are like in 96, to converge, if Dole was not the most charismatic person in the world, which means whoever the Republicans put up, Ron Paul probably the exception for being too different, and given the different states of the economy, its closer than 96, but hardly over.

I continue to hope the Apocalypse occurs on schedule, a month before inauguration day.

I'm voting for the wet smelly sock I found in the street yesterday. :D

FOUR MORE YEARS!!

Yo Sheepdog…thanks for stopping by.

If the economic numbers go south (and there is a damn good chance that “the revival” is very short term), Obama is toast, even if Genghis Khan eventually heads the Republican ticket. The Republicans in congress will do everything in their power to see that the numbers do not improve. Obama has what Carter had with the Iranian hostages when running against Reagan.

And Iran (and Israel’s actions toward Iran) will also impact severely. Big trouble ahead…more than many want to even consider.

Johnny, I do not know any “liberals at position “p”, but as for me…if there were a contestant with a 65% chance of beating Obama…I would hate it. I want Obama to win. Having said that, however, there is no way I want to see Gingrich with any chance whatsoever to gain the presidency. I hope that answers your question…which I am still not clear on. Come back at me if it doesn’t.

Tom…all I can say is AMEN! I’ve been saying that right along. Thanks for stopping in.

Don…thanks. Whatever percentage he has of losing can change drastically if the economy tanks. I think the economy is going to tank!

Mumbletypeg…right on! Actually, I’ve been thinking an asteroid strike might do the trick…if the asteroid were large enough.

Tink…no WET SOCKS option. If you mean Ron Paul…you gotta say so.

Romney is just being a prick to get elected by conservatives.. He's probably way more centrist than he appears. That said, it doesn't excuse his stupid comments about his enormous wealth.

A year away from the general election and you already think Obama is going to lose? Why? The Democrats haven't spent any of the huge amount of money in their campaign fund. And do you really think that when it finally comes down to it, that people will pull the lever for a right-wingf ideological nincompoop rather someone who just saved the nation's butt from 2 wars and an economic collapse compliments of the previous REPUBLICAN administration? Hint: This line of thinking just MIGHT come out during the general campaign!

Well I've had a $100 bet on Obama's re-election for a couple of years now and I wouldn't consider a settlement. I'm sure it'll be very close with Romney now, and again, looking to be the likely nominee. But I think you're being too pessimistic Frank.

You wouldn't want to wager a few OSbucks on the outcome, would you?

Rom is a weasel, but he does appear fairly sane next to Santorum (who is against contraception!), Newt (who wants to establish a new state on the moon), and Ron Paul (don't get me started). Hoping for Obama, tho.

Bernadine…I also cannot get over how Romney sometimes handles questions about his wealth.

Gary…I think your question to me reduces to: Do you think the American public is stupid enough to do the wrong thing at the polling place? In response, I would say: YES! Except that I would make the “YES” be in 64 point type; with red font…and the explanation point would be repeated a half-dozen more times.

Abrawang…hope you win your bet. I have never wanted to be wrong more than on this. No way I am betting against what I want as much as I want this. But if you think he cannot lose, you are being naïve.

Myriad…as far as I am concerned, you are correct on all counts. That’s why I said what I said originally.

What Mumbletypeg said.

I make no assumptions in January that Obama will lose in November. He looked like a pretty longshot at this time in 2008, too. Ever heard the saying "Six months is an eternity in politics"?

For someone who is so vehemently defensive of the president and so ready to take offense with people who criticize him for any reason, I find it odd that you have so little demonstrable faith in his ability to dig in and fight hard.
Consider that he has:
Passed the first health care plan in history. The Clintons had a better plan, but couldn't get it through Congress. Flawed though the president's plan may be, it's a start we desperately needed to make.
He got Bin Laden. For all the macho posturing on the right, Obama's plan was secret, strategic, precisely carried out (I do give the SEALS all credit for that), and successful. And he did not have to endanger a neighborhood or a city to carry it out. He succeeded where Bush didn't even TRY.

THe Republicans have hitched their wagon to an ideological anchor. Their behavior, I believe, will turn off at least as many people as it attracts, probably more. The Tea Party hasn't worn well with the general electorate. Newt Gingrich is obnoxious, a liar, he got drummed out of Congress in disgrace, and a serial adulterer who's been married three times isn't going to look great next to a president who's still married to and in love with his first wife.

Sis, I kinda thought you would agree with Mumbletypeg.

Shiral, thanks for the response. I am almost certain the economy, after minor upticks, will tank again before the election…and I suspect the response will be to throw Obama out and give the Republican Party a chance at “fixing” things. I also suspect VERY STRONGLY that Iran will blow up in our faces during the months before the election, and that Obama’s reaction to whatever causes it to happen will doom him. I agree with your list of things he has helped get done despite “swimming with an anvil tied to his neck,” so to speak, but the far left still seems as disenchanted with him as the far right…and I think he is going to lose. I hope I am wrong…I hope desperately I am wrong. But the question of this thread is: If by some sad twist of fate, the Republican nominee wins, which of the ones running do I hope it will be? Unless you can guarantee it cannot happen, do you have any opinion on that?