MUSINGS FROM THE ICONOCLASM!

If I haven't dissed it--it ain't worth dissing!

Frank Apisa

Frank Apisa
Location
Piscataway, New Jersey, USA
Birthday
August 09
Bio
On a political continuum with Extreme Liberal at 1 and Extreme Conservative at 10, I can be found at position “P.” I get a chuckle at much of what passes for liberal thought, but don’t much chuckle at anything conservative. Quite frankly, I consider American conservatism to be one of the most dangerous pieces of garbage ever to pollute the planet Earth. A major problem with this mindset is occasioned by the fact that I am a 72 year old, white male who works at a county golf course in one of the richest, most conservative counties in the United States. Since I get free golf (at five county courses) as part of my compensation package, I play 4 – 5 times a week. Bottom line: Goddam near everyone I work with or play golf with, almost all of whom are 70+ year old white, males, is a die-hard conservative. I love each and every one of ‘em—love every bone in their heads. Truly! Sure is a tough haul, though—‘cause I am not given to holding my tongue. Just think of all the fun I have at work and play! Don’tcha envy me?

Frank Apisa's Links

Salon.com
FEBRUARY 21, 2012 5:58PM

NEWT GINGRICH WILL…

Rate: 8 Flag

…be elected president in November. Or at least, that is my opinion—and my prediction.

 

Mitt Romney, with his huge war chest, is toast. His people think he cannot be elected…and although I think they are wrong, I am convinced he will be dumped.

 

Rick Santorum will do well in the next few battles, but Gingrich will do better overall…and when convention times comes, the Republicans will “hold their collective noses” and give the nomination to Newt.

 

Newt will overcome his considerable baggage, just as Bill Clinton overcame his…and win the election based mostly on the worsening economy, which I suspect will tank big-time during the next six months. (By the way, the similarity in styles, intellect, and ability to charm people, between Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton are substantial. Both could sell air conditioners to Eskimos…and get referrals from their clients.)

 

Obama is toast—his upticks in the latest polls are ephemeral—about as durable and sustainable as the latest upticks in national economic news. His base is in abysmal condition—and thoughts from Democratic Party optimists that the disillusioned, disheartened left wing will come to its senses and vote for him are little more than wishful thinking. I predict the disenchanted WILL vote for third party candidates or not vote at all...with either choice having devastating consequences for  Obama's re-election bid.

 

The bases of both parties are influencing the uncommitted, and although the Republicans are temporarily in disarray, compared with the Democratic left, they are spiffy as Prussian Corsairs. The “uncommitted” will break for the Republicans.

 

As a result, we are all fucked, but as I have said on many occasions in the past, “We are begging for the shit we are getting—and we deserve every shovelful."

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Frank, I've been feeling the same as you have, but I am beginning to think that Santorum will get the nomination. If that is the case, Obama has a chance.
A dour prediction--possibly to be borne out by events. Obama has indeed been sabotaged in many respects, and an ill-informed public has too gullibly gone along with it. Still, the president has done what Bill Moyers said he would do three years ago--disappoint. Ultimately, he stands for one thing: his own reelection. If he gets reelected, let's see if works on a genuine and worthy legacy for himself--and some relief and justice for our nation.

I suppose I'm a bit dour, too.

I'll bet you a beverage, however, that Obama will be reelected. I'm local, so you know I'll pay up if I lose.

Not that I have any interest other than a sporting one. In the true spirit of nonpartisanship, I paraphrase Mercutio and say a plague on both houses (ambuiguity intended regarding a possible reference to Congress).

Great post, Frank.
Sheesh, guys; I've mostly stayed away from this kind of speculative gambling but I'm a bit housebound ("cabin fever") at the moment so I decided to write something just to help me keep going not because it has much to contribute to anyone.

All I can say at the moment is that I hope, Frank, you're wrong. :-( But let's see what happens, o.k. and ... can we all still stay friends? :-o ;-)
P.S., Paul:

Your comment posted while I was writing mine. Thanks for the Bill Moyers quote. That helps my sagging morale about this whole ?"bloody"? [let's hope not yet] meshugas. ;-)
Podunkmarte:

Only a nonimperialist TR can set things right. Moyers and I both are asking for a lot.

In the meantime, we face the crisis with the president we have, not necessarily with the president we want. A Rumsfeld paraphrase--I just can't rely on my own original thought today.
Frank, I'm just not buying it, but go ahead and label me a gosh darn optimist. I think there's enough thinking people out there to not let the idiots win.
Hey, Andy…I get where you are coming from, but I just think the Republicans will rather take a chance with Newt than Rick. We’ll see.

Paul, we’ll do the bet…for a beer or a coffee. And at some point, we will meet and one of us will pay up. Providing, of course, that President Gingrich will still allow meetings of individuals who hold the views we do.

Podunkmarte…we are best friends forever!!! (And, I hope I am wrong also. Been rooting against myself since the campaign season got into full swing.)

Ccdarling…same thing as above. I hope I AM wrong…and people like you are right. As I said up above: We’ll see.

Lots on the line, folks.
I hope to God you're wrong. I predict that Santorum will get the nomination. Then Obama will get reelected.
Delusional as always, fRANK thinks the Christian Conservatives, key to ANY repugnican't victory will just forget about gingrich's three marriages and believe his conversion from Catholicism to Southern Baptism was nothing but a political expediency.

Still playing the passive-aggressive sociopath role, masterly.
Frank, would you be a betting man?
@Frank Apisa

This has been your theme song for some time, although the Speaker Gingrich chorus is new, as you may well remember I disagree with you on the chances of President Obama's reelection. I promise I will grant you your I-told-you-so rights for being such a determined Cassandra if your prognostication comes true, even if the Republican nominee who defeats President Obama isn't Speaker Gingrich . The thing is you have not really presented much in the way of evidence in defense of your position, that's one of the main reasons I discount it so far.
As I have in the past I will say, I think your concern seems hollow when you won't even dedicate any portion of yourself to the effort, being mounted even now, to keep your apocryphal vision from being realized. Join us, fund raising has been in full swing for a while, I am now and will be for the duration working for the reelection of President Obama. The nine months and a little more left until the election is an eternity in politics. That said, if the election were held today President Obama has a distinct advantage and I think would take any and all of the Republican hopefuls. Perhaps the economy will go south like you believe and President Obama will be left holding the bag. That would be every bit as terrible as you have said and that is what keeps me working for reelection.
Here are my predictions regarding each candidate, if it's Speaker Gingrich you see a rerun of Clinton vs. Dole, if it's Governor Romney you get Bush vs. Kerry, if it's Senator Santorum it will be a frothy new kind of fail heretofore unseen in human history. It will be interesting to watch this election unfold. I will also be very interested in seeing your reaction if the result is not as you predict, as you may be mine in the opposite direction.
OMG do not say thats for real...
❤.•*`*•(¯`••´¯)
(¯`••´¯)°•.¸.•°❤•(¯`´¯)
.°•.¸.•°❤ Hugs ❤°•.¸.•° •.¸¸.•*`*•❤
Hey Froggy…I hope I am wrong even more than you hope I am wrong. But just the fact that it is one of the scenarios that might play out is enough to make one wonder what is up with this country, right? But as I said, I HOPE I AM WRONG.

Abrawang…I AM a betting man…although I also understand why bookies have odds figured in their betting. If you offered the right odds…using today’s polling numbers, I might bet a beer or two.

Anthony Duval…I may be wrong and I hope with all my heart that I am wrong. I will vote for Barack Obama with all my heart; I will do everything in my power to persuade as many people as possible to vote for Barack Obama; I will contribute money and door-to-door effort to assisting Barack Obama get re-elected. Not sure what kind of “evidence” I can bring forth to back up an opinion that the American electorate is capable of making incredibly bad decisions at the voting booth, but if the fact that both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush were elected twice works for you…I offer that!

My guess is that the electorate will vote primarily based on the economy (although world political condition will be a factor also)…and I suspect the American economy will be in the tank during 2012 and I suspect the world political condition will deteriorate rather than get better. I hate all this pessimism in myself (normally I am an optimist), but the sound coming from the some of the liberals on this forum is enough to make Pollyanna a pessimist. I do hope I am wrong!

Algis…the fact that it is a possibility (even if some consider it a REMOTE possibility) IS REAL. Even that fact is horrible to consider.
Interesting conversations on the so-called "news" channels yesterday (Fox and MSNBC). Fox had a discussion of the possibility of a "brokered" Republican convention while MSNBC has a discussion of "draft" candidates/nominees for the Republican party (scary but a prominent name brought up there was Jeb Bush).
The next several weeks will bring things into a much sharper focus.
Personally, I think Gingrich is toast and that the dynamic between Romney and Santorum will be very interesting.
Thanks for stopping by, Walter.

We’ll see about Gingrich. I think there is much more life left in the beast than you, but—we’ll see.

Not sure how the Republicans managed to get themselves into this mess…but I am beginning to suspect that the people who argue they are doing it on purpose—may be right.

Maybe the Republicans do not want the helm…only they cannot just come out and say it. Instead, they are just trying to throw the game. But these kinds of things can backfire…and getting one of these bozos elected might be the way this one goes wrong.
Frank, were you an investment banker in a prior life? You predict newt and want odds for it? Let's just make in 20 OSbucks. I've had a real life bet riding on Obama from 2009 and I'm not about to back off now.
fRANK is just playing his passive-aggressive game. He ACTUALLY "thinks" by constantly telling everyone, Newt's gonna win, he'll panic enough OSers to swing the direction in obama's direction.

Just another facet of fRank's delusional, malevolent nature.
I cannot agree, Frank. We form a larger majority that the carnival noise machines would have us to believe. Wiser, cooler heads will prevail. We didn't come all this way to be burned on the stakes of those old warlocks, Santorum and Gingrich.
Abrawang Frank, were you an investment banker in a prior life? You predict newt and want odds for it? Let's just make in 20 OSbucks. I've had a real life bet riding on Obama from 2009 and I'm not about to back off now.

Nope…not an investment banker. For several years in the early 1970’s, I was a stockbroker (registered representative, they called it) for Bache & Co. They were the second largest firm (to the Galloping Herd) on the Street—and I actually worked in the Canyon.

Yes, I am predicting Newt…and yes I would want odds in a real bet…probably BIG odds. Odds in UK, where political betting is legal, are 40 to 1 against Newt. I said I was a “betting man”, so of course, I would want odds.

But tell you what, since we are not going to trade money under any circumstances, I will make a non-money bet with you with odds favoring you.

If Newt does not win the nomination…I will acknowledge that I was wrong; if the Republicans do not win the election…I will acknowledge I was wrong. If I am correct in either of those cases, no acknowledgement from you is necessary at all. All you have to do is to join me in mourning for our country.

Meghill thanks for posting. I hope you are correct and that I am wrong. But keep in mind that the wise, cool heads you suppose we are managed to give both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush two term presidencies. I suspect we are not nearly as wise and cool as you suppose us to be.
Meghill shoulda bold faced your name in that last post to differentiate my response to you from my response to Abrawang. Sorry.
Any amount over $5 dollars a gallon for gas and Obama is bye bye.
Amen, Leapin Larry...and I can see $5 coming soon. The price here in New Jersey has spiked 45 cents per gallon during the last week and a half...and war hasn't even broken out in the Middle East yet.
Frank, I love you, man, but this is horseshit based on hot air. The economy's going to collapse? Why? What points that way? Wall Street? No. At its HIGHEST point in four years. Housing and Jobs are stumbling along, but they are stumbling in the right direction. Iran is causing the higher (temporary) gas prices and Obama will find a way (with Hillary on point) to defuse that stupid situation. Then we will get to ask the oil corporations if they aren't just gouging everybody.
(What they are saying at the moment is that they always shut down some refining in the winter and this year just got caught by the lower amounts of oil on the market due to the ME situation.)
(Syria is no picnic either.)
Meanwhile, Obama has been playing the long game against the GOP. Their arguments about the economy ring hollow (except with you) as things have gotten better.
I had to laugh the other day when Romney said Well, yeah, things are better, but but they would have gotten better faster if I was President. (I ask him the same question I'm asking you : Based on WHAT?)
Why do think they've all started talking about "God, Guns and Gays" again. They've got nothing
Meanwhile, the pollsters, god love them, show Obama 'struggling' with approval rates at or below 50%. My oh my, meanwhile, Romney's favorable rate is 35% just beating out your new boy, Newt, whose negatives are at 57%. (He may not win his home state primary.)
They are a gang of gaffers, Frank, and they haven't got a prayer.

I want to hear what your evidence is for your guess, but before you offer it, I will offer you this: No odds- Even Up- Loser buys dinner for the winner and his best girl at some place really nice the weekend after the election. (I'll be recovered from the Marathon by then)
Oh, and the loser does not eat.
He sits and watches his betters chow down a nice steak and a glass of something good. Okay?
(I know both N. and C. will enjoy the evening as I will.)

Okay. I'm listening. What the signs you see?
Frank, I love you, man, but this is horseshit based on hot air. The economy's going to collapse? Why? What points that way? Wall Street? No. At its HIGHEST point in four years. Housing and Jobs are stumbling along, but they are stumbling in the right direction. Iran is causing the higher (temporary) gas prices and Obama will find a way (with Hillary on point) to defuse that stupid situation. Then we will get to ask the oil corporations if they aren't just gouging everybody.
(What they are saying at the moment is that they always shut down some refining in the winter and this year just got caught by the lower amounts of oil on the market due to the ME situation.)
(Syria is no picnic either.)
Meanwhile, Obama has been playing the long game against the GOP. Their arguments about the economy ring hollow (except with you) as things have gotten better.
I had to laugh the other day when Romney said Well, yeah, things are better, but but they would have gotten better faster if I was President. (I ask him the same question I'm asking you : Based on WHAT?)
Why do think they've all started talking about "God, Guns and Gays" again. They've got nothing
Meanwhile, the pollsters, god love them, show Obama 'struggling' with approval rates at or below 50%. My oh my, meanwhile, Romney's favorable rate is 35% just beating out your new boy, Newt, whose negatives are at 57%. (He may not win his home state primary.)
They are a gang of gaffers, Frank, and they haven't got a prayer.

I want to hear what your evidence is for your guess, but before you offer it, I will offer you this: No odds- Even Up- Loser buys dinner for the winner and his best girl at some place really nice the weekend after the election. (I'll be recovered from the Marathon by then)
Oh, and the loser does not eat.
He sits and watches his betters chow down a nice steak and a glass of something good. Okay?
(I know both N. and C. will enjoy the evening as I will.)

Okay. I'm listening. What the signs you see?


Wow! Posting as Jonathan Jeffries.

Big move, Jonathan...and I love it.

Okay...as to the "what signs":

None…or at least none that you would buy; more a nagging sensation that I have lived this entire fiasco once before.

In any case, you are saying that the American public can be counted on to do the right thing in November. I am saying the American public cannot be trusted to do the right thing or the intelligent thing any further than I can toss the Empire State Building. I am saying, in no uncertain terms, that you are misplacing your trust big time.

We’ll see who is right in November.

I will be rooting for you…and against myself. I have no problem with a humiliating defeat on this issue.

Unfortunately, I think I am going to prevail. I really, really think I am right on this.

If you actually want to make a bet of it, we will discuss that at our next meet…which, if you are interested, can be on March 15th. Cranky is setting something up with the lady from Paris. I PM’d you earlier today about it.

If not, we will make the bet on the Pan sometime this summer.

But so that I do not dismiss the bet dare completely, I say that by the time we meet for the first time on the Pan this year (which if the weather holds, might be as early as April), the economy will already show serious signs of tanking. You have the other side for drinks for the entire night…if you want to take it.

f.
"I want to hear what your evidence is for your guess . . . . "

You're not really offering fRANK to provide evidence for his guess or opinions. He's not done so for three years, nd obviously, looking at his response, he's not about to start.

fRANK is nothing more than three-card monte dealer, except for the fact that he's always wrong.
I really think Romney has already locked up the republican nomination, by hook or crook. Now, if Newt or even Santorum run as as third party candidates, then Obama will still win in a hold your nose and vote for the incumbent election.
I really think Romney has already locked up the republican nomination, by hook or crook. Now, if Newt or even Santorum run as as third party candidates, then Obama will still win in a hold your nose and vote for the incumbent election.

Still plenty of time to go…and lots of time for Romney to screw this thing up. I just cannot see him getting the nod, but Romney would probably be the least destructive of the group if the Republicans win…so, I am hoping you are correct.
This is called straddling the fence, for to admit he is/was wrong violates one of the cardinal tenets of apisa-ism.