NOVEMBER 20, 2008 10:19PM
The ears are -- hopefully -- not sensless that should give us hearing
Free Exchange noted in its entry "The changing face of self-interest", that the threats that face nation-states are increasingly coming from sources that have no affiliation with any nation. Your correspondent pointed out terrorists and global warming as an example.
America's National Intelligence Council has just confirmed my thoughts --
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5202497.ece
"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons."
The report attributes global warming to the "increased likelihood of conflict over resources."
The NIC's report agrees with this blog but draws very different conclusions. The NIC still believes that the nation-states system, based solely on self-interest, will prevail. Free Exchange disagrees. If the NIC and this blog are correct, then global warming will continually diminish common resources. Fighting to control in one decade might mean nothing because the land and resources will have disappeared or become useless in the next decade. The inherent assumption of the nation-states system is that control over natural resources guarantees a long-term supply of that resource; controlling broad swathes of arable land assumes that the land remains arable. Global warming accelerates the pace at which resources diminish. Will the world -- should the world -- be perpetually at war?
If the world chooses that option -- unrelenting, persistent warfare -- resources (like arable land) will disappear far faster. The cause will be human. And let's not begin to worry about the use of nuclear weapons.
The international relations game need not be played in a simultaneous environment. The arrangement at Brussels makes collaboration easier, and the redefinition of self-interest more practical. Because the source of the threat is not national in nature, the mechanics of the nation-states system should not be put in gear. Neither the threat of nuclear terrorism nor the threat of global warming can be solved without cooperation.
The face of self-interest is changing, and 'cooperation' ought to become a byword for 'self-interest.' To avoid a game-theory disaster, the world should turn to the EU, the only functioning international organization.
America's National Intelligence Council has just confirmed my thoughts --
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5202497.ece
"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons."
The report attributes global warming to the "increased likelihood of conflict over resources."
The NIC's report agrees with this blog but draws very different conclusions. The NIC still believes that the nation-states system, based solely on self-interest, will prevail. Free Exchange disagrees. If the NIC and this blog are correct, then global warming will continually diminish common resources. Fighting to control in one decade might mean nothing because the land and resources will have disappeared or become useless in the next decade. The inherent assumption of the nation-states system is that control over natural resources guarantees a long-term supply of that resource; controlling broad swathes of arable land assumes that the land remains arable. Global warming accelerates the pace at which resources diminish. Will the world -- should the world -- be perpetually at war?
If the world chooses that option -- unrelenting, persistent warfare -- resources (like arable land) will disappear far faster. The cause will be human. And let's not begin to worry about the use of nuclear weapons.
The international relations game need not be played in a simultaneous environment. The arrangement at Brussels makes collaboration easier, and the redefinition of self-interest more practical. Because the source of the threat is not national in nature, the mechanics of the nation-states system should not be put in gear. Neither the threat of nuclear terrorism nor the threat of global warming can be solved without cooperation.
The face of self-interest is changing, and 'cooperation' ought to become a byword for 'self-interest.' To avoid a game-theory disaster, the world should turn to the EU, the only functioning international organization.


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