By Katharine Mieszkowski For media execs looking for a light at the end of the Great Recession tunnel, here's a flicker.
A new report from Magna, an advertising forecaster widely watched in the biz, predicts that while this year revenues will fall about 14.5 percent for the year, in 2010 they'll fall just two percent, and revenue growth will resume in the second half of 2011. It sounds modest, but that's welcome news since advertising is currently suffering its worst slump since the Great Depression.
Yet, digging into the report, newspaper publishers won't find much to cheer about. With 2009 ad revenue expected to fall by 24.8 percent to $28.5 billion, Magna forecasts a five-year decline of 3.7 percent per year.
Brian Wieser, Magna's global director of forecasting, told the Associated Press that "Newspapers don't have a likelihood of recovery for the forseeable future." With print readers aging he described the newspaper industry as one in "terminal decline."
While the forecast for magazines isn't as bleak as for newspapers, it's not great either. In 2009, the report predicts magazines' ad revenue will fall 18 percent to $15.7 billion. From 2009 to 2014, the average yearly drop is projected at 3.3 percent. That will be cold comfort to the likes of BusinessWeek, which McGraw-Hill has put on the block. Yesterday, the Financial Times argued that the publication might be sold for as little as $1.
Online ad revenue is now closing in on equaling newspapers'. According to the Magna report, online is likely to take in $23 billion this year. The forecast is for a drop of 2.2 percent in 2009, but a rise of 8.4 percent yearly over the next five years.

Salon.com
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