Editor’s Pick
AUGUST 6, 2010 7:18AM
Would Ahmadinejad's assassination have changed anything?
By GARY BAUMGARTEN
Paltalk News Network
The recent reports of an assassination attempt on the life of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - denied by the Iranian government - raised the specter of what would happen should he meet an untimely demise?
Would things suddenly improve for the Iranian people? Or would another leader take his place following the same policies he has been espousing?
Clearly, if it's true that someone tried to kill Ahmadinejad with a grenade, their intent would be to remove from power the man who symbolizes oppression of the Iranian people. But an Iranian expert at Columbia University says, hypothetically, should someone successfully kill Ahmadinejad, the results could be the exact opposite of the intent.
"Evidently there was no assassination attempt, or if there was the regime is underplaying it," says Iranian studies professor Hamid Dabashi. "And fortunately so, because any major act of violence at this point is bound to radicalize the regime, militarize its security apparatus even further, and push Iran further to the edge of abyss."
This all raises another question. Who is really in charge in Iran? The answer, says Dabashi, is a bit complicated.
Iran, he says, is controlled by, "a combination of forces that includes the office of presidency but is not limited to that office."
Anyone who is a true student of Iran knows, Dabashi says, that it's hard to pinpoint anyone or any entity as being solely in charge.
"The nature of leadership in the Islamic Republic from its very inception has been intentionally amorphous," he says. "Nobody is in full, constitutionally mandated, control."
There are those observers who have suggested that the Revolutionary Guard has seized seized control. Dabashi says that while it is true that the Guard has consolidated power - it doesn't mean it is pulling the strings in Tehran.
"Yes they have expanded the domain of their political and economic power," Dabashi says, "but that does not mean they are fully in charge either."
All this makes one wonder whether Ahmadinejad's frequent provocative statements are to be taken seriously. As with everything else in Iran, Dabashi says, the answer is not simple.
"He speaks for himself, but the amorphous power structure uses those statements to test the water," he explains.
On the one hand, Dabashi says, it would be wrong to assume that Ahmadinejad is a mere spokesperson for a power structure. Nor is he, the professor says, a stooge of the Supreme Leader or of the Revolutionary Guard.
"He has his populist base of power," Dabashi says.
Another president would present a different demeanor, as did Khatami or Rafsanjani, and as would have Mousavi. But the real thought process at the top, he says, is, hazy. "The cumulative wisdom of various forces and interest at the time."
Seemingly, this all means that anyone who speaks in absolutes about what the leadership is thinking, probably doesn't know what he or she is talking about. Which undoubtedly makes the task of predicting what Iran may or may not do very difficult for other nations that are keeping wary eyes on Tehran.
TIP:
Enter the amount, and click "Tip" to submit!
Julie Morse
Ande Bliss
Barbara Joanne
Marilyn Sands
Susie Lindau
RomanticPoetess
Salon.com
Comments
Yes, he would be dead. And the world would be saddled with one less dickhead.
People in the West pay way too much attention to Ahmadinejad and his antics, anyway. And Iraq and Afghanistan should have taught us that it is far better if change comes from inside these nations, preferably without the use of violence. We should not encourage assassinations or other acts of terror.
In addition, the RG controls not only the nuclear program but also the elite troops along the Gulf.
I would suppose that Ahmadinejad says what he says to divert a populace that is suffering under not only sanctions but a staggering inflation rate.
But I agree that killing Ahmadinejad might have the opposite results that were intended.
there are no autarchs, even temujin and alexander consulted their generals, and kim jong il is probably just the front man for the generals.
iran had a hum-drum parliamentary republic until the cia decided to show what they could do. lots of governments have had their input, which magnified the power of the cia, while leaving their victims and the usa worse off.
Great post. R.
No
Is Iran going to attack our BFF Israel?
No
Have any of their leaders said that they would? Would there be any logic behind such a move?
NO NO NO NO NO
We pump Iran up to 1000x its actual importance because some constituencies in our Imperial Foreign Policy Establishment have a big hard-on for that poor country. Even Salon shills for them with alarmist stories about the regime that is absolutely no worse than the Saudis.
sometimes people create opacity to hide the truth, to avoid say, your friendly local intelligence service that begins with an m, or the global one that begins with a c, from having a clear target.
that is putin's game. but great piece.
The USA has been involved with trying to control Iran for decades. The Shah of Iran was a CIA stool pigeon which is exactly what got him ousted in the first place. Iranians did not want their leader to be sucking up to the USA and working against them on behalf of the USA.
If anyone were to assassinate him, or to attack Iran with military would justify an endless campaign against the aggressor.
Don't be surprised if Iran does unto others everywhere in the world. There will not be a safe spot for zionists anywhere on the planet
so maybe assassinating him could be a good thing for the rest of the world???
Just remember... to dare attack Iran- a nation not presently at war nor aggressive- is to expect it back upon you ten fold from far more than just Iran. If America thinks they have enemies now... wait until Tel Aviv and surrounding occupied land is on fire.
Britain and America are to blame for today's current disgusting middle east problem and when crap hits the fan you can expect all of it to come back into your faces from now until forever you will never have peace as offensive aggressors to the world.
The zionist NWO has failed and is presently being dismantled.
Go ahead and make their day and give them a justifiable excuse.
What really blows my mind is how everyone is so scared Iran may have nukes. Nukes are not the problem- microbes are. Nukes are location specific, microbes are not.
You may be able to avoid a nuke hit, but you will never avoid the laboratory created germs with your name on them. If humans extinct ourselves, it won't be with nukes, it will be with germs and presently every single nation of the world is developing their own deadly stockpile of them and NONE of them are the same so how will you protect yourself when you have no idea which germ is going to kill you?
Keep on pushing the world into a brutal submission and one day one nation after another is going to release some germs on you and your fight will be over permanently. Do unto others... so yeah, things will change, but not for the better.