NOVEMBER 4, 2008 12:43AM

Predictions

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 As has been my tradition going back to high school, here are my predictions for election day (made much easier thanks to the internet and interactive maps):

Obama 312

 I really want to predict a bigger landslide, but this is a conservative estimate.  It 's certainly possible Obama can win by a bigger margin.  Polls  seem to be tightening in recent days, and well, I've been here before and after many painful losses, I  can't bring myself to predict the landslide I sometimes think is coming.

Note I have Ohio going to NcCain and Florida to Obama.  This is a flip from the direction I thought those two states were going.  I thought Ohio would continue to trend Democratic after electing a Democratic governor, senator, and others.  But the numbers there seem to have moved in McCain's direction (I hope I'm wrong!).  

Record turnout is going to help a number of downballot candidates in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, but in the end they will be red on the map.  Missouri, a state that has been tempting Democrats for years, will go for McCain as well.

Here are the states that the Obama campaign is focusing on in the hours before the polls open:

Obama Map

Not many surprises there, but interesting to see that the campaign thinks if a real landslide is underway, Montana, with a popular Democratic governor on the ticket as well, may go blue. Certainly, hugh turnout in North Carolina and Indiana may send those states into the blue as well.

 

I think newscasters will be calling the race for Obama early and start to talk about mandates, the repudiation of George Bush and the GOP, and yes even a 'landslide' if the following happens:

Pennsylvania will be called for Obama fairly early in the night, as well as Virginia (where the polls close at 7pm)

North Carolina and Indiana need to be 'too close to call' well past the closing of the polls there.

 

On the Senate side, keep a close eye on Georgia and North Carolina.  If Libby Dole loses her seat and Saxby Chambliss gets sent home, it will be a heck of a majority in the Senate for the Democrats, I predict 57 seats for Harry Reid's caucus.  I really hope Al Franken pulls out a victory over Norm Coleman as well.  Coleman has been holding Paul Wellstone's seat, and that's a wrong that just may get corrected.

Over at MSNBC,  there is an excellent summary of races and states to watch:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27397701/ 

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