Let me first say that I’m so glad that economists have been able to determine that we officially went into a recession early this year. I read that in the New York Times right after Thanksgiving. It made the front page, in fact. And I’ve been wandering around with this cognitive dissonance ever since, wondering just how I became so detached from my brethren, the economists.

I mean, I half-majored in economics in college, back in the 1970s. I recall that a lot of what I studied was history and theory, and that was fine. Somehow, since then, economists figured out that there was more money in predicting the future than there was in presenting an understanding of the past. If I had minored in astrology, palmistry and other arcane arts, and gone to work on Wall Street – instead of putting my efforts into drinking, guitar playing and the kama sutra -- on many nights, in just that particular order, too – I would have been right up there among the folks who have steered us into a ditch; now I’d be hunkering down in my Greenwich estate (purchased with junk bond commissions in the ‘80s, furnished with dot-com IPO flips in the ‘90s and maintained lavishly with hedge fund bonuses in the 2000s) and quite possibly selling off one of my vacation homes and laying off domestic help rather than wondering how the hell I’m going to afford rent and food in 2009.

Keeping in mind all of the above, I’m going into the prognostication business. I offer the following, for starters:

1. Within the next three weeks, major media outlets and seers across the country will be offering predictions of what will happen with every aspect of the economy in 2009. Almost invariably, these predictions will be ten (10) in number. (With the main exception of Cosmopolitan, which will feature 347 ways to have such good sex that you won’t care about being homeless and starving.) This is really going to happen. Take it to the bank. Remember, you heard it here first.

 

2.  Even if the bailout of the Big Three automakers passes, something will go wrong with your car. Maybe it’ll be the muffler. Maybe it won’t start on a cold February morning. Maybe you’ll blow out a radiator hose in August. But it will happen.

 

3. A day will come, soon, when you’ll see a penny, pick it up … and all the day, you’ll have good luck! I know you don’t believe me on this one. How could I know? Just wait and see.

I think three predictions are plenty for now. But feel free to add your own. They’re bound to be better than what professional economists have to offer.