My nerves have been on edge for a couple of weeks now. I've made some big bets, a little more than a few peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and a Pogo, wink, on my intuition that Iran will up the ante very soon in the Persian Gulf to challenge what they see as a declining US superpower, in an election year, borrowing between 3-4 billion dollars every day, mostly from the Chinese, to maintain all its operations and activities.
As you know, on June 1st it was widely publicized that the US, in collaboration with Israel, was responsible for the StuxNet computer virus that infected crucial Iranian computers that were controlling the centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear enrichment program. And now Iran is suffering from the Flame virus. This is in addition to the clandestine operations occurring in Iran that have resulted in the assassination of some of their nuclear scientists, mysterious explosions at key facilities, other terrorist bombings, and the funding of domestic Iranian secessionist/terrorist groups. All this is tantamount to an ACT OF WAR, that has been ongoing for many months now, and in combination with the economic sanctions that will be ratcheted up starting July 1st, the US is playing with dynamite at a time its population is economically stressed and fed up with war.
Do any of you geniuses remember the lead up to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor? In the months prior to that moment the US had imposed severe economic sanctions on Japan to punish it for its expansionist activities in China and other parts of the Far East. Japan was reeling from an oil and scrap metals embargo, and from having its financial assets frozen. So Japan reacted with a bold, surprising attack on the US. Of course Iran cannot duplicate any such military feat but Iran has the POWER to raise tensions in the Persian Gulf, maybe by sinking just one oil supertanker, and claiming it was an unauthorized attack, thereby making the US hesitate in escalating matters by an immediate retaliatory response, but all the while, as the clock ticks by highly tension filled days, the global oil price will be skyrocketing, PUNISHING the West, the US and Europe, at a time when Western economies can't survive that kind of economic shock for long.
Iran feels right now that its back is against the wall. There is a last round of upcoming nuclear talks with the Western powers in Moscow. The last two rounds of talks ended in stalemate. Without a game-changing event Iran can only expect more deadlock from this last round of talks and then...an intensified economic stranglehold on the country beginning July 1st. Wouldn't it be better, they have probably reasoned, to create an event, a shock to the global oil price, to be able to enter that last round of talks with some leverage, a show of strength, signalling that they can act forcefully when need be, and that if Iran is to suffer economic catastrophe then so will the rest of the world?
Just think for a moment. How can the proud Persians, today's Iranians, with their long history of being a Great Power...how can they politely talk with the American diplomats who represent a country that has been waging a secret war against them? That is humiliating. But if the Iranians pre-empt the situation very soon, and provoke a spike in oil prices, and rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, then they will be daring the US to escalate, which can only force oil prices even higher thereby cutting the throats of the West. Don't you think they might take that gamble, now that the most recent revelations of Amerika's secret war against them has probably infuriated them, and probably made the hard liners in Iran strengthened in their internal policy debate with the diplomats, the appeasers, who have acted as a brake to the war party's push to respond to American provocations?
The Iranian regime is now ruled by the tough bastards of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They have experienced the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s in addition to all their internal blood-letting. They know that they cannot be possibly threatened by an American invasion of Iran. The US has shot its ground war capability to hell in its decade long military adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iranian regime is probably preparing itself now for the limited air strikes that could be the only possible US military response to an Iranian provocation, and even that would only serve to further destabilize the region and shoot oil prices into the stratosphere.
And the Iranians' semi-allies, the Rusians, would love to see the West humiliated and oil prices back up to stratospheric levels because Russia is a petro-state and BENEFITS from sky high petroleum prices. The Russians will not stand in Iran's way if the latter's leaders have made up their minds to act.
These last ten days have been ominous. There have been no huge anti-American demonstrations in Iran after the last revelation of the prolonged StuxNet virus stealth attack. In the past, any such major revelation would have elicited the standard Iranian regime response of massing tens of thousands of protesters to denounce the Great Satan. But there hasn't been a peep out of them, or any formal complaints to the UN, or any official body. The Iranians, I think, have been pushed too far, finally, and are through with showy mass public demonstrations for media effect, and are now going to gamble with the use of force. I think they're on the brink of lashing back. So buy oil futures at a price higher than at which the market is presently clearing. If Iran does try something one huge incentive for them to act will be the huge financial profits they can reap by playing the futures markets just before they launch their strike. That way they, and maybe their Russian friends, if they're let in on it, can benefit from the inside knowledge of the crucial day when a financial tsunami is unleashed on the world.
Nobody is expecting an explosion very soon out of Iran. The world is asleep, diverted by the Syrian massacres, just as in November 1941 the world was fixated on the Nazi advance on Moscow. A BIG surprise is coming very soon!...I hope, or I'm out some cash, and offa this spammed-out site, unless Israel attacks Iran in mid-August, which is my other big prediction. Cheers to every android!