Japan's efforts to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are being met with opposition by automakers and labor unions in the United States, who fear such an entrance will negatively affect American jobs. U.S. government regulators also worry that the myriad of political hurdles needed to be cleared within Japan, will cause complications once negotiations are held among TPP member states. Domestically, Japan's government faces great opposition to trade liberalization, specifically from Japan's farm lobby. Other sectors of the Japanese economy, the automotive industry in particular, claim that their market is "fully open" to imported vehicles, but that low consumer demand for imports has kept those levels low. Japan's political leadership faces a tough battle given the divided nature of its parliament.

Japan has for decades kept its domestic productivity and consumption levels high by keeping a very protectionist economic policy. While many sectors of its economy (particularly the auto industry) are technically "open" the Japanese market is extremely difficult to penetrate for a variety of reasons including an undervalued Yen, continual government financial support for domestic companies, and nontariff trade barriers. Whether or not Japan can truly and effectively enter the TPP remains to be seen. As the article notes, in the past, any past trade negotiations have been greatly compromised by the many exceptions Japan has made for specific industries.

Despite being the second-largest economy in Asia, Japan's growth has been flat for over a decade, and with the earthquake/nuclear crisis of 2011 its economy took a massive hit. If Japan should actually liberalize its trade practices, it is doubtful that any such easing of restrictions will occur in the immediate future. Such changes would have to be eased in over time to avoid industry shocks, and to garner whatever political support is available with a greatly divided Japanese parliament.

Opportunities:

• Japan has the chance to improve relations with many Pacific nations and take a step towards reducing its notoriously protected domestic markets.
• The TPP, with the acceptance of Japan can gain increased notoriety and importance as a free trade pact.

Risks

• Japan's political leadership may collapse given opposition to such a free trade pact.
• By liberalizing its trade, Japan may damage an already fragile economy, recovering from the crises of 2011.

Dependencies

• Ability of Japan's Prime Minister Noda to gain enough support in parliament for such an initiative.
• The cooperation of Japan's powerful domestic lobbies.
• Whether or not the Japanese economy continues to suffer or improves.