I can see it now. Two men stand at podiums on a stage. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias pleads with Illinois voters for a chance to go to Washington as one of their two U.S. Senators, specifically, to serve in the seat formerly occupied by President Barack Obama.
If he knows what's good for him, Giannoulias will avoid any mention of the man currently holding that seat, Roland Burris, and the wretched machinations involved in his appointment to that seat.
At some point during the debate, Giannoulias will refer to the horror of "Barack Obama's Senate seat" falling into the hands of the Republicans, and his opponent will pounce.
Mark Kirk will remind Giannoulias that the seat belongs "not to Barack Obama, but to the people of Illinois." And the race will be over.
Massachusetts redux.
I've had the pleasure of voting against Mark Kirk five times in the last ten years. I live in Illinois' Tenth Congressional District, which Kirk has represented for the last decade.
Democrats underestimate Mark Kirk at their peril. I was heartened in 2006 when a bright, articulate candidate showed up to take on Kirk for the 10th District seat. Dan Seals seemed exactly the kind of guy to reap the fruits of the Democratic resurgence, an MBA from the University of Chicago and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He speaks fluent Japanese. His father, George, was a defensive lineman for the Chicago Bears. Kirk whipped him by six percent.
Oh, well. These things happen. It's pretty hard to beat an incumbent, what with name recognition issues, pork to be ladled out, and all those constituent services provided by the congressman and his staff which endear him to voters regardless of party affilliation.
Certainly, Seals would keep plugging away and win in 2008, or so said the conventional wisdom. He would have Obama's coattails to ride.
I watched one of the debates between Seals and Kirk that year and was disappointed with Seals' performance. The bright, personable, articulate guy I had met a couple of times morphed on stage into a stiff, lawyerly drone, apparently expecting his resume to sweep him into office. Here's an example. Should marijuana be legalized? Seals covered all the bases, the genuine need for marijuana for medicinal purposes, our country's inexcusable incarceration rate for young Black men, the success of treatment programs. So far, so good. Then he blew it.
"On the other hand...."
Seals then deplored the horrors of drug abuse, the brutality of the cartels and on and on. He made his case, then argued against it, so as not to be seen as soft on crime. One could almost hear Kirk sharpening the dagger behind his podium. Your answer, Mr. Kirk. Should marijuana be legalized?
"No."
Boom! The dreaded one-word answer, landing to the jaw like a right cross from Joe Frazier. I've always admired this tactic, even when used against the candidate I supported. Recall the Bush-Gore debates in 2004. Gore couldn't wait to get on stage against Bush. He chugged a couple of caffienated soft drinks beforehand. He waved his arms. He raised his voice. He pointed his finger damningly.
Over and over, Bush responded with shrugs and 15-second answers. Gore should have destroyed him calmly and methodically. Instead, too many voters walked away with the impression that Gore was maniacal and sanctimonious, while Bush seemed modestly self assured.
I look forward to the Senate race in Illinois with resignation. The die is cast. I believe Illinois Democrats' best chance for the seat is David Hoffman, who, as Inspector General in the Daley administration, cut off his boss' nuts with a report blasting the privatization of parking meters in the city, a move likely to cost taxpayers dearly in revenues over the coming decades, in exchange for a huge one-time payout, most of which, at last report, has already been spent.
Now this is a guy Democrats could elect to higher office. But the Chicago Tribune published polling Monday showing Giannoulias, the state Treasurer, with 34 percent of the vote, and Hoffman with only 16 percent. Cheryle Jackson, an appointee of disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich and former head of the Chicago Urban League, leads Hoffman with 19 percent, despite not raising enough money to get ads on television.
I was hoping that the G.O.P. would trash Kirk for his self-described moderate voting record. I had hoped they would insist on a whack-job, tea-bagging Palin-ite, as they did to their detriment in New York's 23rd Congressional District race. Kirk has long allied himself with environmental causes, having seen up close the damage caused to Lake Michigan by pollution. (The 10th District borders the lake.) In the House of Representatives, Kirk supported Obama's Cap and Trade plan to reduce carbon emissions. He dutifully retreated from this position when he set his sights on the Senate.
He supports a woman's right to choose an abortion, though not very loudly these days. One has to wonder if his support of women's health issues might be the next principal tossed overboard as he sails to higher office.
Alas, the same polling released Monday shows Kirk with a 39-point lead in the Feb. 2 primary. So in all likelihood, it will be Kirk against Giannoulias. Kirk just returned from Afghanistan, not from a fact-finding mission, a practice popular among the Sunday morning talk show set, but from a tour of duty. He holds the rank of Commander and is a Naval Reserve intelligence officer. He puts on the uniform, laces up his boots and works close enough to the action to hear the gunfire.
Giannoulias is Treasurer of a state on its way to bankruptcy. He prepped for his foray into politics by working in the family banking business, which has made him a fortune.
This is a done deal, folks. I see Kirk winning in November. On the bright side, he will no longer represent me in the Illinois Tenth. The third time is likely to be a charm for Dan Seals. So Democrats may flip a Republican seat in the House, while losing one in the Senate.
*******
There is an eerie similarity in Illinois and Massachusetts. In both states, politicians in power sacrificed principal for short term gain. In Massachusetts, Democrats changed the rules so the governor could not appoint a replacement. They did this when Republican Mitt Romney held the Governor's office and Senator John Kerry ran for president. Had they left the existing system alone, there would have been no opportunity for Martha Coakley to lose the seat made vacant by Ted Kennedy's death.
The opposite happened in Illinois. Democrats made noises about a special election when Obama's seat was left vacant by his election to the presidency. Then, for reasons unclear and unexplained, the Illinois Legislature allowed Governor Rod Blagojevich to make the appointment, much to his delight.
"I've got this thing and it's f------ golden," he cackled, unaware that his words were being recorded by the F.B.I. "I'm just not giving it up for f------ nothing."
The result was Senator Roland Burris, who never did come up with the cash for Governor Elvis. Burris would later claim his inability raise funds for Blago exonerated him of any wrongdoing.
It would be tough for any Democrat to win that Senate seat this year, following the Blago-Burris fiasco. Hoffman had the chops to run as an enemy of corruption. Without him in the picture, my guess is that Kirk wins comfortably.
Giannoulais can win, of course, if Obama rebounds and the economy shows signs of recovery. But consider Kirk's position. He can go either way. Remember, he defeated a talented, well-funded Democratic opponent during the Obama landslide, and beat him handily. Should Obama rebound, Kirk can tout his standing as a moderate Republican who supports freedom of choice for women on abortion, as well as his support for Obama's decisions in Afghanistan. Should the economy continue to tank, Kirk can point to his opposition to the stimulus package and run away from the Administration.
My guess is that Giannoulais was seen as the Daley crowd as the preferred candidate over Hoffman, and since Democrats always win Senate races in Illinois, it wouldn't really matter who the candidate was. Barring a dramatic turn this week--Hoffman surges and Cheryle Jackson drops out of the race and endorses him--Illinois Democrats in November will wonder what they were thinking in February.
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Comments
Thanks and Rated!
Gwendolyn--Not much money left for schools after the fixers take their cut. Burris is paid $174,000 a year as U.S. Senator. Nothing outrageous about that. But he also draws, according to Sun Times Media, $121,747 per year in pension and healthcare for having served as Attorney General and Comptroller. Public employees in Illinois receive decent pension benefits, nothing wrong with that, but the real outrage is in the practice of folks serving on various boards and getting pension bumps in the tens of thousands annually for life. No one, and I mean no one, in public office likes to talk about it much, because, after all, they are going to retire someday, too. There is a race for governor going on right now. Have you heard anyone discuss this? Neither has anyone else. The game goes on.
On the other side of the coin, Kirk reportedly sought an endorsement from Sarah Palin and was refused. If the hard right had their way, guys like Kirk wouldn't exist. He has been able to stay and thrive in office because he has kept most people in his district reasonably happy.
How would I stack up, with my degree from SIU, against Kirk's from the London School of Economics? Back to the meetings. There are nightly meet and greets held all over the district, or all over the state, listening to the concerns of the folks back home who--if you ever attend these meetings, you know--many of whom are complete morons. And you have to be nice to them. Not sure how long I would last.
And finally there is the matter of willingness.
"Sorry Stan, I told you, 'No fund-raisers on Thursday nights. 30-Rock, The Office, Community.' How many times I gotta' tell 'ya?"
It may be a departure, but this was excellent analysis and opinion. I especially loved the comparisons you employed to make your points.
You're one of the writers I admire most here at OS. Reading this fine article affirmed to me that your passion for life colors all that you touch when you write. Thanks for an outstanding take on the past and upcoming elections in what used to be my state of residence.
Rated and appreciated.
Lisa--Primary turnout is pretty pathetic, leaving the doors open for the PTB to choose the candidate of their liking. If citizens don't bother voting, and not just voting in presidential elections, and not just voting in general elections, but primaries as well, who can blame the party honchos for setting things up the way they like?
Dennis--Many thanks. I usually stay away from politics because I wind up regurgitating stuff everyone already knows. But I thought the polling was a significant story, and tried to frame it in a way that would interest readers in and outside Illinois. Also, I haven't seen any attention to it nationally, which kind of surprises me.
(Though I did get a nice laugh out of the Thursday night programs comment!)
Great analysis.
Stim--Thank you. I know very little about him. No one else seems to either. Lifetime pols like Quinn and Hynes are one thing. Guys who make their fortunes, then decide to devote themselves to the public good, they set off my bs meter.
Do you feel better today? It seems to me that the pendulum may be ready to swing back, at least for the knee-jerkers. I'm not so sure Alexi is the BEST there is, but I think he can beat Kirk.
I hope.