Just Walt's Mental Meanderings

Walter Blevins

Walter Blevins
Location
Vista, California, USA
Birthday
August 22
Bio
I'm a 60 year old guy who lives in Vista California with my wife. I spent the 30 years before moving to Cali in Iowa, Wisconsin and North Dakota. And I have 2 grown children, a son and a daughter who live in Virginia and Iowa and a 22 year old step-daughter lives with us here in Vista. I'm a proud grandpa with 2 grandaughters living in Virginia. I like to write about a whole variety of things from my kids to cooking to politics to the car industry to my status as a "Cheap Bastid" and "Old Fart" and just random thoughts. And I really love writing about cooking really good, homecooked comfort food cheap. That's why they call me the Cheap Bastid. By the way--all the stuff I write is my stuff and you can't use it without my official OkeyDokey

JULY 13, 2012 4:38PM

Bankrupt Cities--"The Tip of the Iceberg"?

Rate: 12 Flag

I can’t resist the temptation to climb up on the old soap box briefly today.  Earlier today there was an article published on Yahoo Finance’s “The Daily Ticker” about municipal bankruptcy declaring that it’s the “tip of the iceberg”.


In the article, Richard Brodsky, senior fellow at Demos.org and former 14-term New York State assemblyman, said "This is the tip of the iceberg for different reasons in different places.”


The article specifically referred to this week’s decision by the City of San Bernardino, CA to seek Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. “San Bernardino, Calif., is the latest municipality to seek bankruptcy protection for its $45 million budget shortfall, following Mammoth Lakes and Stockton, which was the largest U.S city to ever go bust. Bankruptcy filings by these three California cities have raised questions about the scope of budget issues on the local level and whether there will be more,” the article said.


That’s well and good but many experts, including Brodsky, are predicting even more filings or other maneuvers to escape budget disasters than the cities in California—although California is arguably the most at risk state and its cities the one’s which are also most in peril.

tip-of-iceberg


San Bernardino’s woes are shared by cities such as Scranton, PA and North Las Vegas, NV both of which have attempted to take measures other than bankruptcy which is an option not available to municipalities in those states.


According to the article, Brodsky said that years of declining property values after the housing bubble burst  have left many cities strapped for cash. “If property values fall, so do revenues collected from property taxes. Additionally, while people do love their services, there's been a growing distaste for increasing tax revenues to pay for those benefits.”


And that’s my point of departure with this expert and others who are out there blaming these municipal failures on traditional “tax and spend” liberals.  The fault comes right back to anyone who was in elected positions passing ordinances and laws; setting policy and negotiation labor contracts from the mid-90’s through today.


Around the “turn of the century” I recall seeing and hearing news reports and “experts” addressing the question of “will the real estate bubble burst?”  Typically the answer was, “no”.  These experts in finance and business were calling for continued double-digit appreciation in real estate for the foreseeable future and beyond.  Budgets in government were predicated on it.  Bond issues were based on this ever-upward spiral.  Public employee retirement programs were banked on it.


And each time I would hear something like that I would cringe.  “Hell, yes!”  The bubble has to burst.   What goes up must come down.  Budget for a worst case scenario on income and make expenses match up.  I’m a huge believer in budgeting other peoples’ money as conservatively as possible.


Yeah, this is going to be the tip of the iceberg.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the entire state of California gets brought down by it.  Why?  Because NO ONE in government, anywhere, thinks to be a good steward of “the people’s money”. 


There are far too many public employees who live better than the people they serve.  There are far too many who receive much better health care and retirement benefits too.  It used to be that public employees made enough (barely) to live on but were assured of health care along with a decent retirement for their years of public service.  But public service was construed to be a bit of a sacrifice or trade-off—security after age 50 for 25 or 30 years of service beforehand.  Ain’t nothing wrong with that either.


Used to be that infrastructure was planned based on long-term needs.  It was added to new developments using “special assessment districts” or in commercial/industrial parks with tax increment finance. 


But, the bubble burst.  Our days of “sunshine and lollipops” and “everything’s going to be peachy-keen forever” were a fiction—a fiction that only someone intent on fooling themselves would advocate, believe or act favorably upon.  And yet governmental units at the city, county and state level all over America have been doing just that for a couple of decades.
But to hear so many tell it, it’s all Obama’s fault.  Bull-hockey. 

It’s our fault.  We let it happen.  We got too busy living the good life to be involved or to scrutinize what was going on in our city or county.  We bought in and drank the kool-aid. 


And there’s not going to be too many “do-overs”.  Get ready to pull in your horns.  And folks, if you want to scream and shout “Save Our Schools”, “Keep Class Size Down”, “Lower the Crime Rate” or whatever make sure you know how you’re damn well going to pay for it first—that better be written in big letters on the other side of your placard.


Because yeah, this is only “the tip of the iceberg”.

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Comments

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Walter: I've given up on the whole system. It's no longer worth worrying about. Leave it all behind. At a moment's notice. Change is afoot. I can't wait!
banks are now catching up with foreclosures yet on the books; an increase in housing shadow inventory is going to depress the housing market further; that, and along with poor fiscal management and the attractiveness of a post-bankruptcy restart, scares the hell out of me — a retired State of Connecticut pensioner.
Gary--thanks but I'm getting an increasing feeling of dread that it's all going to come crumbling down about our ears.
Chuck--yeah, I share your concerns. It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.
Does this mean I can't get a zero-down $300,000 loan on a house in San Bernardino and flip it next year for $425,o00?
JMac--Nope! And who would want to do that in San Bernardino anyway? But a whole bunch of people did 6-8 years ago. Remember "Pogo"? "I have met the enemy and his is us". Sounds about right.
Walt, you've described the dynamics of what defeated the unions in Wisconsin's recall elections last month. I don't see how it can get better before it gets worse.
What not many people speak of is the bubble bursting for commercial property too. Just wait...we ain't seen nothing yet! I shudder to think....
Matt--I think you're exactly right. And I'm just sitting here thinking about living in Wisconsin 20 years ago and even though we had a really conservative governor in Tommy Thompson, it wasn't like it is now. And hell, I ran the Chamber of Commerce in the largest tourism market in the state. (By the way, son Michael has already been telling me horror stories about highway funding in VA--especially since he has to pay bridge/tunnel tolls each way, each day to and from work. He lives in Norfolk and commutes to Portsmouth.

Buffy--thanks and you're right. We all drank the "kool-aid" of "pundits" telling us that property values would continue to appreciate ad infinitum. And it's coming back to haunt us now.
When I saw where the town councils in some of California's town were making hundreds of thousands of dollars, I was shocked. Then, it started a landslide and now it is getting unstoppable. I saw cities where Police and Firemen are making minimum wage and their kids working at McDonald's make more than them. Imagine, running into a burning building or stopping armed men for minimum wage. They need to go back and find where this money disappeared from former city major's and city councils . Some of these don't pass the "smell test". Start jailing a few and watch the rats run!
I feel like we are all dangling over the edge. In our town we have store after store closed and our once affluent tax base is disappearing, but those Republicans here still got their pork and have torn up streets that they recently re-did and in such a way as to make it nearly impossible to get to some stores and just around town in general. I imagine it will force some other places out of business too. It is very disturbing. We live in an unincorporated area on the edge of fields and forest and while it is affecting us in some ways, the people within the cities are getting it more. No one took pay cuts that are on the tax payer dole here when the tax base shrank. We all got tax increases when our homes were devalued. It is a cute set up. If you still live here you are paying for all the heavy top layer that still wants to believe it is a party. There is something on the horizon and I am sure that the tip of the iceberg can only begin to describe our possible descent into more chaos.
ScanMan--yeah, it stinks and the stench just keep getting worse. I could cite "chapter and verse" about the city where I live but it would take too much space (besides, I've done a bit of posting on it before). California and the cities here have screwed themselves into a huge hole that I don't think we'll get out of.

Sheila--a geesh, and I was hoping that more rural areas would have been able to avoid the worst of it. Government at any level eventually morphs into something which primarily exists to be self-perpetuating rather than of service to its citizenry.
Excellent. Thanks for getting up on your soapbox. I'm worried about higher ed, too, because it has become so expensive for the average person. Over the coming years, a college education will become available only to the rich, which will reinforce the status quo. Wonder when all those blue-collar conservatives will get a clue and stop voting against their economic interests? They actually want to elect a multi-millionaire! Where's that going to take us? I ask you. Where? R.
The idea that this problem came from individual behavior at this level, or even the behavior of municipalities, is insidious and obscene and false. All the credit taken out by all the individuals and all the municipalities and even all the governments in the world throughout history could not add up to the private financialized debt that was built up largely built on nothing but ridiculous bets made for the profit of the very few. And now these debts are being shifted onto the public by bought off politicians colluding with the very people who did this. It's not some kind of conspiracy theory--THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING.

So screw the moral hazard talk. It's bull.
Deborah--I agree and also worry about higher education--However, let's "prioritize" for a second--1)Water and Sewer, 2) Streets, 3) law enforcement and fire protect ion 4) public K-12 education. And from there, it's anybody's guess at what the priorities of government are at the state/local level. But the first priority is always "order". Higher Ed competes with "public welfare". I remember long ago when Pres. Carter advocated "zero-base budgeting" and many jurisdictions embraced it. It worked. It worked damn well. The reason it's not used so much today? It worked to well and forced agencies to justify the expenditure of public funds. And, of course, they couldn't have that, could they?
BOKO--thanks for the comment. It's all consistent with what I said, I think.
No. Because you seem to think that "people" did something wrong. Bull. People rode the wave. People planned for development based on the wave. People did what they always do when times are good. People went on with their lives and trusted that the folks running the show were not sociopaths. It's not regular people's fault, it's not "our" fault. That's BULL. Regular everyday people can have the reasonable expectation that the two largest financial institutions in the country are not going to build up $140 trillion in notional derivatives and then demand 0% money from the public weal to pay down their wrong bets...forever. Regular everyday people did nothing here. That's just bull, and it always will be. But false guilt is a helluva disease once it gets started.
The one thing that isn't going away are problems related to underfunded pensions for public employees.

The private sector ditched defined benefit plans 10 to 20 years ago.

California could solve its problem by legalizing and taxing pot.

Since that makes too much sense, expect to see some sort of 'haircuts' on benefits. Best case for everyone is if most of the core benefits are preserved, with the pain going to those with the highest benefit levels, cola adjustments, etc.

The most generous benefits appear very abusive, but the typical public employee isn't the problem and should what they were promised.
BOKO--thanks again. I'll leave you with a quote from my father--"opinions are like posteriors, everybody has one."
I just don't feel like getting in a pissing contest today.
Nick--thanks for stopping by and chiming in. I concur. The "defined benefits" pensions will probably be a casualty. There was a ballot measure here in San Diego during the primary in June which calls for a change to a 401K type of retirement system for "new hires".
I'm afraid that's not going to be enough. The pension system is both broken and broke because of "defined" benefits. And public employers here constantly talk about how it's important to pay good wages (especially to management) in order to attract good people. There are far too many $10,000/month employees and $10,000 per month pensions. The premise of public education has historically been that there is a trade-off as a "public servant". You make a reasonable wage--but not necessarily one that is going to put you on "easy street"--receive good health benefits and then receive a pretty good pension.
Much will, of necessity, have to change. I'm not sure what, how or how much. But the well is about dry and it doesn't look like there will be much replenishment of the well anytime soon.
Nick--OOPS. Sorry for a wrong word in my reply to you.
I wrote: "...the premise of public "EDUCATION..."

I meant to write: "the premise of public EMPLOYMENT..."

....sorry for that mistake.
I'm with you, Walter. My sense of dread increases almost daily.

Lezlie
L--thanks. Isn't that a horrible feeling. We think that government should help us feel secure. We assume that means in terms of peace not in terms of a sense of security in the financial well-being of the very government we trust (or at least used to trust).
Walt, I fear that we will one day look back at this time and think of it as the calm before the storm. You can't keep robbing Peter to pay Paul as my daddy use to say. At some point there has to be a a bottom line that must be met.
Legalize Pot. Legalizing Booze saved us after the Great Depression. How low do we have to go?
Here's a really scary iceberg: maybe misspending, corruption and illegally gotten gains is larger than government. Maybe some of us have been seeing it in the private sector since the '90s, and have been alarmed that no one else seemed to care -- being too intent on pocketing their monies and securing their futures to care about the rest of the country. Maybe The Real Bottom of the "Recession" is that shadow looming in the distance you were hoping was shade for global warming. I say, ok fellow capitalists...Some of us have been unemployed for over two years; where's the concern from you that you expect us to show for your reduced benefits and those scurrilous acts to reduce union power? Oh, and...How's that trickle-down thingey workin' for ya?