Kent Pitman

Kent Pitman
Location
New England, USA
Title
Philosopher, Technologist, Writer
Bio
I've been using the net in various roles—technical, social, and political—for the last 30 years. I'm disappointed that most forums don't pay for good writing and I'm ever in search of forums that do. (I've not seen any Tippem money, that's for sure.) And I worry some that our posting here for free could one day put paid writers in Closed Salon out of work. See my personal home page for more about me.

MY RECENT POSTS

OCTOBER 12, 2008 6:32PM

Election Stratego

Rate: 9 Flag

I have recently been thinking about a game I’ve not played for years, called Stratego®. It was fun to play in some ways, but bothered me in others because once you played, people would know your strategy. After the game had played out, people could inspect what you’d done, so it thwarted reuse, at least to some degree. Yet as I’ve seen more of how politics plays out, I have come to think this is how it is, and even to wonder if a better job of cataloguing their plays is in order.

It started innocently enough with Reagan, where people used to wonder if he was really behind all of the policies he had. Some speculated that he was just an actor performing someone else’s script. I was just starting to pay attention to politics, and I couldn’t say at the time. I like to think it wasn’t so. But it made me alert to the possibility that such things could happen, and that some degree of vigilance was in order.

Republicans, by the way, commonly accuse Democrats of similar things. I don’t think they’re right, but I’m just as vigilant for that, too. I like to think of a President as the person who's calling the shots. That way, when I want to get a change in policy, I know who to contact, whether they're a Democrat or a Republican.

Bush and Cheney Stratego pieces

I admit I’ve been nervous all along that Bush hasn’t been calling the shots. He seems to be serving up a lot of agendas fed to him by others, and I he frankly hasn’t impressed me that he’s bright enough to hold bad ideas at bay on the strength of his own intellect. If there were someone who wanted to control the nation from some undisclosed location somewhere, you might think it was better just to become VP than President. Note, too, the strength of such a configuration. Bush is almost impeachment-proof because impeaching us would lead to Cheney as President.

McCain Stratego piece

So the question arises: Could that be the strategy used for McCain? It seems at some level implausible. Is McCain another Bush? He shows himself every day to be less and less smart than I’d thought. But he’s still hard to control. And Palin? Well, she’s scary like Cheny, but again seemingly not as bright. So it doesn’t match up.

And yet, her remarks in the VP debate seemed unusually prepared on precisely this one point:

“I’m thankful the Constitution would allow a bit more authority given to the vice president if that vice president so chose to exert it ... our founding fathers were very wise there in allowing through the Constitution much flexibility there in the office of the vice president. And we will do what is best for the American people in tapping into that position and ushering in an agenda that is supportive and cooperative with the president’s agenda in that position. Yeah, so I do agree with [Dick Cheney] that we have a lot of flexibility in there, and we’ll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation.”

—Sarah Palin in 2008 VP Debate

So it seems like she wants to become Cheney. Or her words say so. Michael Fox speculated on this in more detail his article News from VP Debate: The McCain-Palin Coup. And today Greg Randolph’s article Maybe It Really Is Palin/McCain Afterall speculates that the right way to explain the configuration is Palin/McCain.

Even more speculatively, perhaps they just see McCain as not likely to make it through office, so Palin is planned not as a Cheney replacement but as a Bush replacement—a puppet in waiting. That would beg the question who her eventual VP might be, of course. One would have to be nominated eventually, and it does require Congressional approval, but I bet the person appointed would not be who the Democrats would hope for. (I can already hear the phrase “up or down vote” echoing away annoyingly in my head.) But, for a time, there would be no one, a real opportunity for ambitious would-be puppetmasters to pull the strings from even more hidden places. Likely? Perhaps not.

It's hard to understand the strategies if one isn't sure what game is being played. It's said that, in poker, if you don't know who the fool is at the table, it's you.

Turner: Do we have plans?

Higgins: No. Absolutely not. We have games. That’s all. We play games. What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime? That’s what we’re paid to do.

Three Days of the Condor

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In November 2009, I wrote a follow-up article:
Who will be Sarah Palin's Darth Vader

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Chilling. I'd wager that there's far more game-playing going on than we'd like to think. And I'm no conspiracy theorist. Great quote from Condor, a movie which warrants rescreening.
Oh, make no mistake that Palin thinks that she should be able to run for President in 2012. Make no mistake that she has that ambition. Make no mistake others have that ambition for her, if only because it means they can hitch their wagon to her political star. That is true of politicians since time began. Getting into a candidate's orbit early on is almost a guarantee that you get a White House appointment if they make it all the way. Make no mistake there are people who are already seeing themselves as the "power behind Palin's White house throne."
As someone who keeps turning up as the fool at the table, in all of life's roles, I feel a peculiar ability to comment.

Sarah Palin is clearly not up to the responsibilities of the Vice-President, and certainly not up to President. But she is certainly someone who would think herself up and will act herself up to the task.

And you don't have to be brilliant to fuck shit up. You can be Vice-President Palin and just go fuck shit up, Cheney style. Maybe she wants to go fuck shit up in Iran. That's the problem.

She may or may not be anyone's puppet, but if so then that may be a best rather than worst case. If she really runs loose--for example, if she became President--now that could get ugly.
I was also really surprised at her debate comments regarding the role of the Veep. As you say, she seemed remarkably prepared on that. When I heard it, though, the image that came into my head was of Palin getting on the phone with someone saying, "Find out just how far I can take this VP thing." She is nothing if not ambitious, and I don't doubt that she sees herself as fully qualified.

I've been torn over the years between the possibility of deeper and darker conspiracies than we've ever thought possible or the sad reality that incompetent idiots really do gain and wield power. I don't know which would be worse.
Susan, power will flow in to fill a vacuum. To have a figurehead or an incompetent running things would not mean no one is running things, it means control would be managed from outside, from someone unsupervised, unaudited, and perhaps even unelected. That is surely more dangerous than someone who, if out of control, is subject to impeachment. If anyone incompetent gets control and allows bad things to happen but is clearly not at fault themselves, the history is that the person won't be impeached. Everyone will think it inappropriate.

Asleep at the helm is, effectively, a defense, as happened almost literally with Reagan and Iran-Contra and has been waved about for various of Bush's fiascos. It's almost the defense Gonzales got away with, although I guess that was never tested. Anyone below him serves at his pleasure, but as long as he personally doesn't authorize something, we appear not to hold him accountable. This is a dangerous posture for a government whose primary controls are four-year-separated elections (quite a long time in terms of what can be goofed up in between) and inter-branch sanctions like impeachment (quite heavyweight and rarely wielded). That's a lot of—well, Ms. Palin would call it—"flexibility".
I'm iffy on the Palin-Cheney comparison, though I completely buy the strategy talk you have here, because I think Cheney had enough insider experience to create a space for himself in which he could do the damage he did, whereas Palin just thinks that she can show up as VP and have that power. But I totally see where you're going, particularly with the idea that some terribly cynical advisers want Palin to succeed because she could edge into the top spot. And I think she would be a Bush-like figure as you describe: not smart enough to reject poor plans.

I LOVED Stratego for precisely the reason you mention: I could figure out everyone's strategy and trounce them. Heh heh. Isn't 5 the bomb? Nice pick for McCain, then.
Saturn, I'm not wedded to a particular theory of how their strategy is working--I just found the metaphor compelling and thought I'd see what others thought. Thanks for sharing your ideas.

Regarding the game pieces: I believe 5 is a captain, as John McCain was, so that's why I made him thus. The playing piece in Stratego corresponding to a bomb had no number; the miner, who could deactivate it, was an 8. If you want more info on Stratego, a very well-done fan site is Ed Collins' Stratego site. You can also try Wikipedia. The game is a Milton Bradley game (now owned by Hasbro) but the Hasbro site didn't have nearly as interesting a set of info on it. The trademark is owned by Hausemann & Hotte.
You wrote:

"Even more speculatively, perhaps they just see McCain as not likely to make it through office, so Palin is planned not as a Cheney replacement but as a Bush replacement—a puppet in waiting. "

That thought never occurred to be during the presidential campaign, but it's extraordinary ... I don't know the right term ... insightful? brilliant? ... what adjective does one use to describe self-described speculation?

It absolutely makes sense! I mean, think about it ... who "brought" Palin to McCain? BILL KRISTOL! A neo-con far more aligned with the Cheney camp of the GOP than with Bush and the theo-con base.

If Palin gets the GOP nod in 2012 (and I shudder at the thought), it will be very interesting indeed to see who her VP pick is, at which point your thesis can be fully tested.

BTW, lest you are wondering how I stumbled onto such an old post, your shameless self-promotion in the Comments section of someone else's blog worked! :)
Gosh, I wish I didn't have to think you were right about the 2012 thing, but I'm sure it's a possibility. Almost smells of the cynical campaign slogan “Reagan in ’80, Bush in ’81” when there was a belief that every 20 years a President dies in office. Note that Reagan almost did, with getting shot, but not quite. I wouldn't want to see that happen to anyone, not even Palin, who I dislike intensely. But yet I mention it in this context only because in the extreme case it's a way of peeling back the shell if it turns out the puppet gets confused and tries to think for him or herself. I often wonder if some variant of that is what happened with Kennedy. (I'm sure it must be on the standard list of possible things; I doubt I thought that one up but am too lazy to go look for a reference just now.)

And yeah, I guess it amounts to shameless self-promotion, so I won't claim it's not, but I like to think of it as speaking in hypertext. I cross-link my ideas so I don't have to repeat them—I run long as it is, and wouldn't want to run even longer on topics I've treated before. I encourage others to do the same and am sad the interface doesn't make that easier for them. :)