Kent Pitman

Kent Pitman
Location
New England, USA
Title
Philosopher, Technologist, Writer
Bio
I've been using the net in various roles—technical, social, and political—for the last 30 years. I'm disappointed that most forums don't pay for good writing and I'm ever in search of forums that do. (I've not seen any Tippem money, that's for sure.) And I worry some that our posting here for free could one day put paid writers in Closed Salon out of work. See my personal home page for more about me.

MY RECENT POSTS

DECEMBER 2, 2009 11:53PM

A Life without Public Health Insurance

Rate: 17 Flag

A thought occurred to me. I didn't know what to do with it, so I'm putting it up for comment.

The essence of the debate over the so-called “public option” in health insurance seems to come down to a philosophical question of how one wants to live one's life.

The problem is that life is a complicated connective web of issues. For example, many of us believe that a lot of people want to live their early years paying less for health insurance because they haven't yet learned that later on, these things will matter. And they may not have planned well. The problem, we fear, is that they will be on our doorstep later saying, “Help me. I planned badly. But I am worthy of pity.” And there will be many of them. Too many. And it will be hard to remember or accept that they elected this.

But the desire of those of us who want universal care is not, contrary to what the others might think, to enslave an unwilling population. Our assumption is that for every person added to the pool there is a risk as well as a source of income, and that if things are priced right it really makes very little difference how many people in the pool as long as it is generally large enough to overcome certain anomalies that happen with very small pools—such as those one sees right now inside plans bought by a family or small company. Once the pool is of a large size and consistently administered over a lifetime things work fine. The problem comes if people are allowed in and out because they can dodge the expense or risk while enjoying the benefits.

And we're a society now where everything is online, and in the future access to information will be even easier. Perhaps we'll have Google and Wikipedia and other things that project an image into our sunglasses, continuously offering us information as we walk around, like how Robocop sees the world. Information could be on the web for all to see (perhaps in real time, but certainly at hospital check-in time) that this was a person deserving of no care or pity—that such would be incompatible with their elected way of living their lives.

So what would happen if instead of requiring people to opt into health insurance, we offered people the option of irrevocably choosing to live without government health insurance, including without the right to enter a hospital for emergency care, in exchange for lower taxes. So the set of people who wanted this product from society would mutually select when they came into adulthood, before they knew too much about how their life would play out, to enter a society that either did or did not have this. Everyone would be either in or out of health insurance—the cost and the benefits—no exceptions, no opportunity for subsequent change. Opportunity and responsibility in its cold, hard form. Two worlds to choose from, everyone free to take either, but a choice of lifestyle they must commit to for a lifetime. And everyone would know who was in and who was not.

[Cheney annotated]

There's obviously an issue that some of us are already adults. It's a thought exercise. For simplicity here, assume we're not talking about ourselves, but rather the society we might have been born into.

Also, children can't yet choose, so could be handled in any of several ways. We could decide that children would have to live with whatever their parents had chosen. (A reduced set of benefits could be contrived for children of “mixed couples.”) Alternatively, we could decide we were going to have universal health insurance for children and only allow adults to opt out, so then even the opt out folks would be taxed enough to handle their share of everyone's children.

Not allowing people to opt out of universal health insurance for kids might not be as unfair as it might seem at first, since it helps to give everyone in our society a fair start. But also, and importantly, it seems to me that it's the Republicans who seem to want, disproportionately, to opt out and they are also the ones who seem, again disproportionately, to favor public policies that lead to out-of-control population growth. It might give them motivation to care about how many children were born.

I wonder whether, if offered in this way, it would lead to everyone being happy. I wonder how many people who started off full of bravado about doing it on their own would make it through life without regrets. I wonder whether if the others insisted on helping when there was no other option for someone who had opted out, they would be laughed at or appreciated. I wonder if we could co-exist with people under such different terms.

It's probably not doable at all. But it seemed worth pondering.


If you got value from this post, please "rate" it.


Afterthought

On reflection after the initial posting, I came to understand why this is interesting to me: The advocates of opt-out claim that their suggestion is about individual liberty. But they want state-wide opt-out, which is just as protectionist as what they claim to oppose, affecting others, not just themselves. What distinguishes this is that it's about individuals. It's not about forcing others. For symmetry, one might call it the “The Private Option.”

I wonder if supporters of state-wide opt-out would be so quick to say to others that they should follow when those others' fates were not tied to their own, or if those others would be so quick to follow. I wonder if, when the option didn't work out so well for at least some of those followers, they would be resentful about the advice they got and who they got it from. Under state-wide opt-out errors in the advice one individual gives another can be hidden behind “the Greater Good.” Here it would be starkly visible for all to see when the advice goes wrong that it had been, in fact, just bad advice. Nowhere to hide.

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I like the Robocop-view of the world you propose, Kent. Your graphic alone is worth rating. This is a worthy thought exercise that all the nay-sayers to a single-payer system should participate in. I don't hold out any hope, however, that those people will put down their lockstep slogans long enough to examine any other idea requiring thought.
Thanks, Coyote. I hope some of the people from the opt-out camp weigh in here. I'm curious how they regard this.
It's so insane. As a Canadian, I keep swearing not to comment on the American health care shmozzle one more time...but then I just swear and do comment.
WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH YOU PEOPLE! Riot in the streets, dammit. March on Washington.
Myriad, your comment is actually ambiguous. The people opposing government run health care think Canada is a failure of health care and will assume you're saying we should save ourselves before we end up like you. Others here think Canada is more humane, and will assume you're saying we should be, too. Which of these messages are you intending to send?
Very thought provoking. Trying to let this digest. Not sure of the economics when Universal Healthcare has subsidies for the lower income which depend on the input from upper echelon (which hold 96% of the wealth - of which who can afford private insurance - also the ones making these votes who have no experience living without insurance, some of the best insurance in the world paid by us).

So the people opting out would also be the people most likely able to contribute the most based on IRS tax tables...

But, I do hear you. I hear a lot of "average Americans" who fear government control of their health etc. who want to opt out and I actually would love for them to be able to opt out and really see what this looks like for them when they loose a job or face a major health crisis in their life. Not because I wish the worse for anyone; mostly because they espouse philosophy with no real world experience to draw from.

Great piece!
Amen to Myriad. I've suggested that one more than once.
Kate, I'm not a big fan of dynastic wealth. I'll write about that another time, though. For now, yeah, that's a little glitch in the proposal. But I think it could be overcome. And anyway, some wealth is new money, of course, while some people who start with wealth don't end with it. So it's not clear it would cause as much perturbation as you think.

Another detail of the health care debate is the assumption that it has to pay for everything. The way I think of it, we just figure out what's available and come up with some decent rules about how to divvy up that money. I don't think, in spite of the fears of some who oppose it, that it's an obvious thing that we have to declare it an infinite source of aid. My concern is not that everyone be utterly taken care of, only that they be fairly taken care of. (That doesn't mean equally even, just a standard set of rules that are generally agreed upon and consistently applied.)
It's late and I should be in bed, but this seems to be the witching hour for interesting posts, so I stay up, commenting incoherently.

Couple days ago I posted a video about a Canadian comedian, who accosts our politicians while dressed as a sort of Xena, Warrior Princess (the comedian, that is - our politicians seldom dress up like Xena, Warrior Princess). Anyway, in modified costume, and leaving behind her usual sword (probably couldn't get it over the border), she went to a Palin book-signing and asked if Palin would offer support to Canadian conservatives who want to dismantle our public health care system. Palin of course said yes - it should be turned over to for-profit insurance companies. This was played on Canadian TV to great hilarity...

While doing five seconds of research on that post, I checked the website of our currently-in-power capital-C conservative party, and they claim to do even more for the public health care (universal, government paid thru taxes, no upfront cost to the consumer) than the Liberal party...and even claim they do more than the New Democratic Party (socialists) would do if they ever got in power...

So, long answer to say I think the U.S. is criminally insane (or the government is) with respect to the health care scene. And it doesn't look like the bill that is currently being extruded by Congress will be more than a placebo...

PS - for those who don't know, we've had our system for over half a century, and we're not enslaved yet... Everyone is covered. Nobody goes bankrupt from medical bills. What you hear in the States about long waits, etc. is propaganda.
Myriad, thanks for the clarification! You may sleep now.
Actually, the flag lapel is so that people don't think he's Canadian -- or French. Your proposal is excellent, and I predict that if enacted, 0.00000000000001% of the country would go for the no insurance option.
lefty, I'm actually not sure it would be that low. Then again, if you threw in “no Medicare” and perhaps “no Social Security” as part of the same bundle, now how much would(n't) you pay?
Your "not utterly everything...but fairly" reminds me of someone on another site, an American, who said authoritatively that having something like the Canadian system would be awful because, SHOCK, Canada doesn't provide chemotherapy due to the cost, and cited the case of a fairly well-known Canadian who was asking for donations to pay for her chemo. This well-known Canadian has a website. And when I checked it, I found that she is looking for donations for the special diet she thinks she needs and special therapy and alternative treatments, in order to cope with the effects of the chemo. I pointed this out to the snotty American (sorry), and added that I have known, and known of, a fair number of people with cancer, and they all had chemo. In fact, my husband, 88 years old and terminal, was being automatically lined up for chemo (until he refused on the grounds that it wouldn't extend his life significantly but only make him ill).

Our system doesn't pay for *everything* people can dream up, but in my experience and from everything I've heard personally it does an adequate-to-excellent job of fair distribution of resources...
Thank you Myriad. I'm not a Canadian but I play one on TV, just kidding. I get very mad when kooks start talking about how awful the Canadian system is blah blah blah. I wondered where they got their stats.

A few years ago I was in a unique position to have a great deal of personal contact with a lot Canadians, Canadians who were in the well off section of the prosperity graph, folks could well afford a trip south of the border for a medical condition if need be. I asked hundreds of Canadians two simple questions, Are you happy with your health care system? and would you trade yours for ours?

Responses were pretty much unanimous: yes to the former, and no to the latter. Answers were often accompanied by laughter at the absurdity of the questions.

I don't understand why anyone would want to come and live here anymore. There are so many better places to go.
One more thing, isn't the opt out deal the Swiss model?
Ablonde, I think the information must be getting deliberately manipulated. I often see ads in TV that feature specific situations that are not things people could want and I often think as I do “oh, right, and in the US that same situation never happens.” The problem is that we are intended to assume the case we're shown generalizes, and that all situations are like that one. But they don't say that “this case is typical.” They don't explain the policy that leads to it. They just tell you an isolated factoid. And then they hope they'll be misunderstood in a particular targeted way and carried by paraphrase, in a deniable way, throughout the culture.
It sounds like what you are wrestling with it the notion of 'adverse selection' in insurance. It is well known and has been studied extensively.

US health insurance has little risk transfer (in general), so things are both a bit more complex and a bit simpler.

However, to the larger point, I think the real stumbling block is that we have a desire for a two tier (or more) health system by some well to do Americans (including union members, ironically enough), based on the notion that they deserve an expensive option, since they have 'paid' for it in some fashion.

Others want universal access to care baed on common sense and equity.

The common thread is that both sides want to be treated equitably. They simply see their interests as divergent.

Another faction wants to rationalize and reduce the total burden of care -- to a more reasonable 10% to 15% of GDP. I would like to see rationalization and don't care that much how it is done.
Kent,

Great point - I see your point. Thanks for that - I can see how it could be overcome.

I, too, agree with Myriad on everything. I have not met a Canadian who isn't pretty satisfied with their system. Any person in the US who slams it, usually finds someone who is oddly disgruntled over a single point. You can find that in any system.

I'm not sure how much we really achieve with this current bill, but we'll see what the final product is that they turn out...
Nick, I didn't know the specific term adverse selection and I'm not quite sure I can yet use it correctly in a sentence—I'm still absorbing the significance of it. But those issues are definitely involved here.
But the root of concern over a public option--over any kind of reform--is fear of change. Sorry, but this change doesn't solve that.
I have did quite a bit of asking folks about healthcare and the ones who have it don't want anything to do with the current bill in Congress.They want no public option, but the ones who have none say they want a public option.
Double standard?
I don't know.
I have a sincere doubt that anyone would sign up for no healthcare for lower taxes, but many there are a few insane ones still out there saying 'oh yes.'
This post makes me think Kent. I thank you for it.
Mission, I'm always glad to make people think. Not enough of that going around these days.

By the way, I just updated the post to add an “Afterthought” section at the end, with a few additional remarks that weren't in the original post but that I didn't want to get buried in the comments.
Kent writes: "Once the pool is of a large size and consistently administered over a lifetime things work fine."

This was actually the original idea behind HMOs. If everyone in the service area is in the risk pool, and if the HMO has to serve everyone in the service area, then you could charge a single insurance rate to everyone, and it would not be necessary to stratify rates according to age or preexisting condition. But it only works if everyone is included.

If everyone is included, then you can manage the health system as a public resource since we're all in it together, instead of our current fragmented approach with multiple health systems, multiple insurance plans, etc.

Health care is one of those interesting things in which the normal rules of economics don't apply. Competition in health care actually drives up costs, in the same way that if we had multiple water systems or multiple police departments serving the same area. This is why so many countries have health systems that are just as good as ours, or better, for a much lower cost.
Mishima, hard to know if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with you, but I've heard (and have no formal data to point to, so might be wrong) that the issue with HMO's is that as they played out, they came to be “health care for the young and not yet sick.” Their policies work well if you want something very streamlined, but as people age they end up preferring other options. That doesn't give the advantage of spreading the cost over a lifetime. It makes HMOs get the cheap, profitable cases with little responsibility to save money for later and other options get the more expensive cases with little help from when the patient was younger and able to pay more while using less service.
I guess I'm saying it's not just everyone, but everyone at every time—that is, the competition isn't just between people (HMO gets person A, PPO gets person B) but between the same person at different ages (HMO gets person A before age 25, PPO gets person A after 25). This stratifies the patients along age bounds, which is maybe what you were saying.
What I'm talking about is the original concept behind an HMO. The idea was that you could have a single community rate based on the age/sex distribution of a particular service area.

Using that concept, if we treated health care in a systematic way, it would be possible simply to charge everyone in the same service area the same rate for health care. For example, if the total forecasted health care expense in a service area came out to an average of $3000 per year per person, eveyone could be insured for a $250 monthly premium. So you wouldn't have an 18 year old paying $50, a 60 year old paying $800, and a high-risk patient paying $1500. Everyone would be covered and everyone would pay the same rate. But it wouldn't work if people could opt out.
Ah, I see. Thanks. Yeah, that's the adverse selection effect that Nick Carraway was talking about, I think.
So you have rich people with their own insurance, working people with an "opt-in" insurance, and the poor or out-of-work with no insurance. What happens when a rich person's limo runs over a poor kid?
I like the idea of a "Private Option'. If the argument is about individual freedoms and mandates, then my Governor should not make the decision to opt out the whole state just because he's a Republican.
I wonder why this individual option hasn't been expressed or explored by Congress? (sarcasm) Those who want to buy from big insurance could and those that wanted to join an expanded Medicare type coverage could and get charged accordingly. That sounds workable to me and would eliminate a lot of problems. Of course, now it's so watered down as to be unrecognizable.
Rarely a week goes by that I don't read an article about small businesses getting another 15% increase in premiums. In fact our local paper wrote an editorial about their own increases that basically steal wages from their work force. Money that was meant for raises, now have to go to Big Insurance for premium increases. And yet the Republicans are still unyielding. What a crock.
So many on the right side of the argument seem to blindly follow against their own self interests and force their representatives into a corner. Or is just the campaign contributions from the insurance industry that guides the reps motives?
maybe that would be covered by the rich guy's auto insurance -- how about a scenario where a violently ill woman comes into the emergency room -- are we going to say, sorry lady but you opted out and now we can't treat you?
skeletnwmn, the point of this article is to find out if someone who supports opting out will bravely step forward and answer “yes, even if she's my own daughter.” to your question. I'm not proposing having people ever go private, but I'm just highlighting that this is what the private people are really asking for. I think by denying the option to be private, they're secretly asking for it both ways—wanting public health care where it comes up (medicare, for example) but not wanting to admit it. Wanting the hope that the public will insist on emergency rooms doing that even if there's no one to pay. And yet wanting to be able to buy private care. It makes little sense to me and sounds like no kind of society that would be friendly to live in. But the point here is to cut to the real argument and get past the subterfuge. So far no one championing a private option has said “Yes, I'd love to be (not) treated that way.”
Michael, big (insurance) business is driving everything. The insurance companies know that, especially since they are exempt from antitrust legislation, they are free to extort whatever money they like from ordinary people. There is no free market in play. And with all the free money, they are investing it back in lobbying and advertising to assure the illusion of another side to this issue is seen out of proportion to reality. I'm sure there are supporters of the status quo, but I doubt they are in the majority. This is a major issue affecting nearly everyone I know, and not just people who are living hand to mouth.

Speaking for a moment as someone who has been a small business owner, I must say that I don't understand the desire of ordinary business to maintain the status quo. It favors companies that do not invest in their employees over ones that do, and I would never want to be in a competitive situation where my only option was to eliminate health care if I wanted to break even! A public plan takes the issue out of the competitive realm and levels the playing field, allowing one to focus on one's business expertise as the way to remain competitive. At least, that's how I see it. I can't quite see what businessperson sees it differently. It seems like it would be a savings for businesses to get out of the game of having to provide (and administer!) health care.

The only even sort of negative I see for business is that it might enable free flow of workers between companies, where presently some workers won't leave a job they don't like because they're locked into health care. But I can't really believe that's what is driving most businesses that are retiscent.
I get all of that. I can't understand why they are unregulated when it's so obvious that they are taking the whole country to the cleaners. Buying politicians works like a charm. I love how they use profits to lobby against their own customers. Irony at it's best.
I can't think of a single reason for small business to be against reform, either. If everyone has to participate, it would remove the unfair advantage that companies that don't offer coverage enjoy and level the playing field.
What a mess this whole thing has become. Time will tell, but time is getting short. It seems this debate has gone on forever with all of the stall tactics. The clock is ticking. They can't spend forever on this thing. There is so many other issues that need to be addressed. Between Republican stalling and the need for a 60 vote super majority to pass a bill, the Senate has ground down to a near stop. Something has to change about that. I like the 55 vote majority that was introduced by Alan Grayson. That makes so much more sense to me.
I wonder how much medical care dick cheney has received at public expense?

As for your musing about a permanent opt-out, the very notion of refusing care to someone so foolish flies in the face of everything we claim to be as a nation -- tho it must be said, that claim doesn't hold up in practice.
But Tom, isn't the essence of this debate that the opt-outers are effectively demanding that we allow them to live this way? Paraphrasing the mantra of NH, “live free and therefore possibly die” ...? Or, perhaps, if you think Living Free means enjoying this risk of dying, then by substituting equals for equals: “Possibly die or die!”
an interesting thought experiment, but impractical as you seem to acknowledge

there's a fundamental philosophical difference in these two camps, and I think that difference is that some of us recognize that we live in overlapping communities of various size and scope, and that we all draw strength from each other, while others persist in the idea that each individual stands alone

I think the radical individualists ignore the reality that very few would last a week if they really had to rely only on their own resources, and they ignore the basic truth that humans are social creatures

I think at heart they're sad and lonely, as well as fearful, and their worldview is a pathology
Roy, I agree, and I think you've focused on a key post. If I might paraphrase you by channeling Carl Sagan, “If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.”
I do a riff on the old saw that seems apropos in this case: A doctor who treats himself has a fool for a patient. I say the self-made man has a fool for a creator.

My point is that those "rugged individualists" who want to drop out of a system of socialized medicine (and it all is in one way or another) would be the first to come running to the emergency room if they had a serious medical problem. And the "bleeding-hearts" they so denigrate and despise would willingly treat them in spite of their unkindness.

In the end, this opt-out would simply be another folly like "free-market capitalism" or communism -- belief systems that sound good in theory, but just doesn't work out in practice.
@Tom, "And the "bleeding-hearts" they so denigrate and despise would willingly treat them in spite of their unkindness."

This reminds me of a photo I saw once of a KKK member in the ER. He had obviously been shot or otherwise injured at a rally or something because he was bleeding heavily from the torso and ruining his fancy white robe. There were about six doctors and nurses working feverishly to save his life. Everyone on the ER staff was black.
Kent, The thing that keeps going through my head is that young adults think they're invincible. They think they won't get hurt, get sick, get into car wrecks, fall and break bones, fall down stairs, etc.. I'm thinking about this because of the students in my class has a best friend who is dying of pancreatic cancer--at 21. Or another one of my students who had five friends die simultaneously in a car accident.
And young adults have no idea what health care costs. They don't know how much it costs to be pregnant. Absolutely no idea how much a few days' stay in the NICU might cost them if the baby is premature, have no idea that you can rupture your appendix at any time.
And then what? Do we let them die because they don't have insurance? Or do they go into bankruptcy and become everyone's responsibility because they will need public assistance? I guess that's my question.
It's akin to people who don't want to have their kids vaccinated. The only reason they can get away with it is because the vast majority of us have had our kids vaccinated, so most of those diseases are not rampant. But stop vaccinating, and watch those diseases come back, and watch the graveyards fill up with the young again.
Allow enough people to opt out of a healthcare system they don't think they need, and my premiums go up, and then I'm still stuck with the bill when they get sick because they lacked forethought.
They impinge on my personal liberty. If they're too poor to get their TB treated, and they cough on me on the bus, whose liberties are impinged now?
Interesting thought experiment, but from a purely selfish point of view (mine), I ain't buying it.
FLW, it's ok because I'm not selling it. I'm just doing market research to try to find someone who is. All I did was write down what I think the opt-outers are asking for. I'm waiting for someone to come along who says, “wow, finally, yes, that will allow me to live.” I suppose I'm posting at the wrong site for that. Maybe if I'd posted this at Faux News. There's more I could say but I've held it as notes for a possible future post. Thanks for your useful comment. :)
Tom, thanks for clarifying.

Michael, good piece of imagery. Thanks for your thoughts.
All I will say is that this post does a solid job of pointing out the idiocy that is the American public. The “opt-outers” would, indeed, be just as ready to accept single-payer healthcare as the “opt-inners”. Can we all say, “Hypocrisy”? Of course, the word, hypocrisy, barely scratches the surface of what NEEDS to be said.

The concept of providing medical care for every citizen is so basic, so fundamental, so elemental to a decent culture, that the fact that this debate is so heated, so divisive, indicates the depth of the illness from which America suffers and for which there is no realistic remedy.

The lack of thought, the illogic, the callousness, and lack of patriotism of those who oppose healthcare for all reveals their hypocrisy to such an extent that it leaves any thinking, caring, decent human being speechless, dumbfounded, unable to even comprehend the motivation behind the vehement opposition.

You write, “The problem is that life is a complicated connective web of issues.” You lost most of them right there, as soon as you wrote that concept down. It is too complicated for them.

Tom pointed it out in his comment; it’s all “socialized” in one way or another and there are basically two kinds of people involved in this debate: people of kindness, and people of “unkindness”.

mishima points out that HMOs supposedly incorporated the “single-payer” concept. The problem with HMOs was …? INSURANCE CORPORATIONS AND PROFIT MOTIVE, which turn people’s health into a commodity to be dealt with solely for profit instead of as a “public resource”, as mishima states it.

There is no reasoned argument to support the opposition while there is overwhelming proof that a public single-payer system would be a vast improvement, so we are left with useless “rants” like this comment of mine and this “thought experiment in absurdity” (not meant as an insult to the author, but as an indicator of what this post points out so clearly).
Kent, I appreciate that you are thinking about this in a way that shows that people always make choices and there are always consequences to these choices.

So, as observations:
-The opt-in public plan would have to truly be funded only by the people who opt-in. No broad based taxes on opt-outers.
-Private markets for insurance and medical services should be deregulated so that opt-outers get to live in a free-wheeling pay for what you want marketplace. Basically, the government offers a more standardized universal option and if you don't like it, you can choose to live in the free private market where lack of payment means no service.
-It would likely be necessary that doctors and hospitals be allowed to choose to service only opt-in plans, opt-out private plans, or both. Again, this is about choice.
-I think it would be logical to eliminate the tax deduction for private health insurance since people are not paying the tax associated with government healthcare. No need for a deduction. Everyone just pays things straight-up.

Potential outcomes:
-The private insurance market would likely free itself from be tied to the employer. People would start buying individual health insurance much as they do homeowners, life, and car insurance. I think this would be good and would immediately eliminate the problem of people losing insurance when they change jobs.
-Private insurance would likely become more creative in designing options that seek to maintain a life long relationship with customers. An example would be insurers offering riders where a person pays a higher average premium to be able to waive premiums for periods of unemployment; or, agrees to pay higher average premiums while young in return for relatively premiums when they are older and use more service.

Give some of my observations, I would opt out. I think 80% of the people with an above average income would opt out. I think the opt-in pool would still be pretty balanced in terms of accident/illness rates so risk would be adequately spread. The main thing would be whether the premiums would be cheaper than equivalent for-profit plans. My guess is that the government would keep the premiums down by lowering quality and rationing since their pool of people have limits on how much they can/will pay in taxes. The private market will do what private markets do: charge more for faster/higher quality service... charge less for less. Opt-outers would choose whatever balance of the two makes them comfortable.

As a close Kent, you may or may not realize it but you're opt-out idea is very much an American free market oriented idea. Everybody only gets services they pay for and they have to live with the consequences of their choices.
It's a thought-provoking exercise, Kent, though I think I'm most interested in your afterthought. If nothing else, the illustration of what this would be like taken to an extreme is worth contemplation, since things always seem to develop a life of their own after implementation.
Steve, the proposal would be at age 18 you decide. How would you know at that age whether your income was above average? Some people might think they were smart and would be likely to make more than average, or that they were of a well-to-do family and were likely to be lucky, but there would still be plenty of examples of such people having lost their place in the world. I could easily imagine the well-off finding that having insurance against being destitute would be much cheaper when bought through a large pool through the government than through a small pool privately (there just aren't that many rich people, and they're probably quite demanding and prone to have relatives with lawyers, so they might not be good risks). I could also see people getting rich later and enriching the pool. So I'm not sure the issues are as clearcut as you say.

By the way, random question: Supposing family/inherited wealth were not part of the picture—do you still think people would opt out? That is, do you think the opt-out would be based primarily on the sheer metric of “I can afford not to care about others” or do you think any of that set would be motivated, notwithstanding their wealth, merely because they cared about others and thought being part of the public plan was just and right?
Saturn, thanks for stopping in. In fact, if I can get people to think about these things at all, and not just take pre-packaged problems and solutions from others, I think that's a big step forward. I wouldn't want our poor brains to atrophy for lack of use, though sometimes I think that's what some politicians would like.
Kent, your comment in comments about "not caring about others" and in our PMs something about people not wanting to be "mean" reminds me of something CS Lewis wrote about. He described how people can have two different views of selfishness. I will try to reconstruct a version of this that I am sure is not 100% accurate.

-One view is that it is selfish to seek to take care of yourself on your own as much as possible and resist others who want to help. Basically, asking to be left alone is selfish.
- Another view is that it is selfish to always be trying to help people with the implicit assumption that one person knows what is right for another.

I think this is another hurdle in the healthcare debate. I do not believe it is selfish to wish to take care of oneself and family as much as possible and accept the fact that others may not do as well. For those who believe that all Americans should have healthcare even if others have to pay for it, I often wonder why they do not see that as another form of taking care of one's own and not focusing much on others. The reality is that many third world countries do not have even basic healthcare or good food. So, wouldn't it be more unselfish to help the poorest overseas first before we expend tens of thousands on expensive treatments for well-off Americans?

Whenever I have argued this here at OS, I often get responses where people are infuriated that I should bring non-Americans into the debate. The dissonance is lost on them.

As a note, yours and Roy's comments about individualism is an exaggeration of what free market libertarians believe. You're right that no one believes that an individual can make all there own things with no help from others. What libertarians believe is that voluntary exchange in free markets is the best way to create this cooperation so that people can have all sorts of things that they could never invent on their own. Central planning by governments is almost always less efficient and usually results in either soft or hard coercion. I know you recognize this since the premise of your post was the idea that maybe not everyone should be forced into a government healthcare system.

As a note, the likely way 18 years olds would get a sense of what choice they should make is that they would get advice from older family members and friends plus the private medical industry would design products to attract them and advertise. I am confident they would be awash in information that would allow those who feel optimistic about themselves to opt out.

But, no way to prove it since this is just a thought experiment.
Steve, again thanks for your thoughtful analysis. It adds a nice sense of texture here that I've had trouble filling in and a kind of human face to that side of things.

But not to let you off the hook too easily, I still that you're not confronting straight on the questions of desperation, charity, and regret. I think a lot of people want to live in a world that does not account precisely for the cost of making sure people are well, where they stretch a bit to accommodate. In a private health care situation, if there isn't enough money, that's pretty much the end of the story. In government, there is some opportunity to stretch. The conservatives are quick topoint out that such opportunities should not be infinite, but there is presumably at least some middle ground. And so the difficulty comes if you have a public facility that doesn't check its checkbook before deciding whether to offer care—do you in fact intend that it should turn you away? And is it implicit in your support of at least this thought experiment that the only situation you accept in the way of a public system is one in which there is a precise budget and if there is an overrun, there should be no stretch?
Kent, the interesting thing about your challenge to me that there should be charity is that one of the big fears of government health care is that the government will in fact start to decide who does not deserve healthcare because it is too expensive. The anecdotes from the UK where drugs paid for by private insurers in the US are not paid for by the government system are examples that conservatives fear. As long as healthcare is private, then people can appeal to the government, particularly the courts, when they feel they have been wronged. Once the government is in charge, there is no one to appeal to anymore.

But, to answer your question, I actually am willing to compromise more than you may believe. I have a done a few posts outlining some ideas that I believe balance free market solutions with a general public desire to provide a minimum healthcare safety net.

You might want to read this:
Healthcare Debate: Is Comprimise Possible?

Since this time, I have identified some major potential big flaws in this approach, but I think it shows an attempt to achieve the caring for fellow citizen that you are seeking.

As to your second question about what is room for stretch over a budget, I believe these decisions are best made by individuals relative to their own budget. I actually believe that if people were more involved as consumers, even at end of life, they would seek the best value for the cost. So, many old/ill people would choose voluntarily to not seek certain treatments to reduce their own pain and preserve assets for their families. Just like parents are often willing to sacrifice their own lives for their kids. It is an honorable act.
Excellent and well written. A chilling glance at the truth.