Lawrence Summers, Director of the White House's National Economic Council, said today “Today everyone agrees that the recession is over.”
![[white washing]](/files/white-washing-120x120-bordered1260882778.gif)
Well, I don't agree.
Oh, I can hear a few of you. “You don't understand, Kent. A recession is an objectively defined thing. It has a technical definition and the objective criteria have been met.” Perhaps so. But that's my point. If the definition is such that we can now conclude the recession is over, then the word isn't the one the news media should be reporting on. My concern is that, as a public, we aren't managing the terminology. We are allowing government and big business to do it, the same people who are telling us that the health care system is not broken.
Why do we even care about recessions? So what if there's such a term—are we just such nerds that we define arbitrary criteria about the market and pass them back and forth as trivia? I hope not. We attach names to qualitative assessments like “recession” because we expect these terms to tell us something useful about things. Recessions are bad. Booms are good. And we also need terms we can use in conversation. Conversation between real people, not between bankers. “How about that recession?” “Damn that recession.” People who have been laid off and can't find employment don't need to hear that our troubles are over. They need to hear that we know they're still hurting.
And so I'm sure this term “recession” is useful to someone, but if it's going to have this dorky techno-meaning that isn't measuring anything that real people feel I think we should demand another word, another bit of terminology. If people think the recession is over, then clearly recession is not measuring the thing I, at least, want to be talking about.
Presidents are always creating new departments and offices to manage things of public interest like Homeland Security or Consumer Credit. How would it be if we asked President Obama to create an Office of Using Terminology and Measures That Aren't So Removed From Reality That They're Actively Offensive. Ok, so I need to work on the title.
But seriously. If we're out of the recession, but things are not better for regular people, we need terminology that reflects this. We can't have Congress and bankers and health care execs and even our President losing focus on just how bad it is for some people. So, ok, we're not in a recession. Great. How about “shit storm”? I admit it's an offensive term—frankly, I hate it when people use language like that. But as Dennis Knight noted in one of his posts, sometimes swearing is necessary to communicate what we're feeling.
I think a crude term like this would really help to make news reports clearer. Instead of saying “Good news today: the recession is over” the news anchors could be encouraged to instead admit “Mixed news today: Those in the elite, ruling class will be thrilled to know that the recession is over, but unfortunately regular work-a-day folks can expect to remain without power indefinitely as we continue to experience the longest shit storm in American history.”
In fact, what I'd really like is not just new terminology but a focus on measuring new things. We have some pretty terrible metrics for measuring things. We accept unemployment figures that are based on who's drawing unemployment even though unemployment benefits run out and the person goes off the radar just because the government is no longer helping. That person is still unemployed but not being counted. And we count as re-employed someone who has a job of any kind, even if it's not paying what it was before. We need to do a better job of coming up with descriptions that really explain what's going on. The new Office of Using Terminology and Measures That Aren't So Removed From Reality That They're Actively Offensive could help with that, too.
Indeed, I can think of all kinds of good things that office could do. It seems like every day I hear some politician making an absurd claim about Americans wanting this or that. No one knows what Americans want because we never ask them. Heaven forbid we should actually put something on a ballot or a tax form that allowed us to check a box saying “I want universal health care” or “I want a public option in health insurance” or “I'm pro-choice.” Instead, we have a national policy of “don't ask, just tell” where our ignorance on what people really want becomes a justification for anyone to claim anything they want with no concern about being rebutted. “Polls?” our legislators ask mockingly, “The only poll I care about is at the ballot box.” But since candidates and issues aren't separated when voting, it's harder than it sounds to separate out what people want.
Government will never be reformed as long as entrenched politicians and special interests are allowed to control the words we use and the measurements we choose to take. We need to take back control of how we talk about what government's duty is and of how well government is accomplishing that duty.
We need the Office of Using Terminology and Measures That Aren't So Removed From Reality That They're Actively Offensive. Not giving it to us won't keep shit storms from happening. And it won't keep us from coming up with increasingly descriptive names for the people who keep bringing them to us.If you got value from this post, please "rate" it.


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Comments
I don't know anyone who is recovering. Not a single one.
The media is at fault here. That is my opinion Kent.
Mission, the politicians and bankers are often the ones that come up with these metrics, but indeed it's the media's job not to buy that and to dig deeper. Thank goodness for the likes of John Stewart and Stephen Colbert and Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann.
How about some objective measures like: how much of my monthly income does it take to buy gas, housing, healthcare, food, dogfood, or even take a day off and go somewhere? When was the last time I felt confident enough that I could take a couple days off work and it wouldn't set me back a few weeks in terms of income? That's my definition of recession--when I'm living so close to the edge that I can't loose my grip for even a second. When I feel like I can take my eyes off the road for just a moment, knowing I won't drive over a cliff, than I'll think maybe the boom times are back. For now, I'm recesssed.
I was charged, along with some others, with producing the company's take on the economy, a statement that would be put out publicly (and paid attention to only by a small number of people, but that wasn't my concern). One of the people in this group was an MBA with an economics background. When I wrote a section on the impact of unemployment and the likelihood that it will be a problem for an extended period, she argued that it was not appropriate to include that. Her reason? "Unemployment is a lagging indicator."
Gee, I thought unemployment was a personal disaster. Lingering unemployment becomes a household disaster, a cause of personal suffering, self-doubt, depression, fear, anxiety. Even the economics of it are greater than in their ridiculous formulas. Lingering unemployment is keeping people from being able to spend, and now that our economy is based so much on "consumerism," the fact that we aren't buying a lot of crap we don't need is keeping the "end of the recession" from being an actual full-blown economic recovery.
Susan, perhaps it's a lagging indicator because of the trickle-down treatment the matter gets. If it were reported first and handled first, it might not be. But if it's left to tend to itself, of course it will be. Sigh. Can you say “self-fulfilling prophecy”?
In other words, I think it is assumed that the only "is over" would be "recovery" when in fact, at the moment a "depression" has arrived, the "recession is over".
uh-huh
Acknowledging some kind of division between the technical definition of a recession and its popular use, though, is a good, serious idea. I'm interested to see how this plays out in the media -- whether they keep to terms like recession to describe the technically non-recession period we're moving in to, or whether they come up with something new. Personally, my money is on the White House/Treasury trotting out a new term soon, similar to the somewhat meaningless "economic down-turn" phrase that was coined, I believe, out of those shops.
i bet you read '1984', am i right? i bet you thought it had nothing to do with america, right? well, 'recession' is evidence to the contrary. so is 'representative democracy', and ' change you can believe in.'
I would give (mostly) anything to actually hear this as a headline on the "news"... LMAO!
And hopefully it's obvious that I am in agreement.
;-)
This is a terrific post. It’s a departure for you in one sense and yet, in another, it’s very characteristic of your usual thoughtful remarks.
I agree with you that this is certainly one of the times that plain and even pejorative speech are more than called for.
In debates, it’s often said that “He who frames the argument usually wins the argument.”
In the realm of politics those who define (or redefine) exacerbating problems have found that definitions are very often accepted in the place of actions. Being able to explain a truth can be easily mistaken for acting upon it.
“My doctor is a brilliant man,” said the terminal patient. “He was able to tell me everything that was wrong with me using such nice words!”
Rated and appreciated.
A year or so ago someone very smart said that we'll know when things are turning around when the "big boys" go on a shopping spree, a real one where they actually start scooping up huge amounts of stock and stuff, not just talking about their "confidence" in this country blah blah blah. I have not seen evidence of this yet. Have you?
Saturn, “economic down-turn” is too obviously a euphemism, but is fortunately also too many syllables to be conveniently used.
al, I've never been shy about saying 1984 is increasingly the reference guide of choice in crafting modern political terminology.
Dennis, interesting observation about people accepting definition in lieu of action. I'll have to ponder it a bit. It sounds plausible but I find it's not something my brain has readily indexed data about. It's fun to be alerted to such things, though. Humans are, by nature, amateur statisticians. (I'll post about that some day. I don't think it's accidental.)
As for the issue of people scooping up stocks, I wish I had the luxury to track that kind of thing. I do think that there is a theory that confidence precedes stock scooping (or whatever you want to call it) and that furthermore stocks getting grabbed comes before companies hiring (which is co-occuring with employment going up). But the problems for me there are that companies doing well might result in companies hiring elsewhere or companies buying robots or companies taking dividends.
And so as I mentioned to Susan earlier, I think half the problem is that the use of this sanitized business-centric statistic actively implies a model of the world in which human anguish is a lagging indicator because human anguish is not directly addressed, it is assumed to get trickle down. We all secretly know what it is that's trickling down on us, and it's not the kind of gold that you can put in the bank.
I was living in South Florida for approximately 15 years, from 90 to 03 and witnessed first hand the craziness of the real estate market there. All was within reason until the new millennium, suddenly, nearly overnight, forty year old "bungalows" that were crappily built forty years ago were going for 250k when but a year before they were selling in the 120 to 130k range. And that's just one example. Now a simple minded woman such as myself thought, why is this? There was not a requisite leap in average income nor a reason for a sudden influx of buyers into the area with more disposable income. The best analogy I can think of is a craps table. Suddenly everyone is in the real estate business, flipping houses, rehabbing, at parties the conversations were all about granite versus concrete, how trendy were the plumbing fixtures in your spec rehab? It was a house of cards. Another pyramid scheme except that in this case the big winners were not the ones at the top, they were the ones in the middle. And lots of people got very greedy too. They don't like to admit that now, but lots of these amateur flippers wouldn't be in default if they had accepted one of the probably many reasonable offers they were presented with, but no, they were holding out for the big payoff.
Oh well.