What happened with the earthquake in Haiti is horrible. And yet, I and others are worried that Climate Change will lead to much worse.
If temperature rises even just a small number of degrees, the effects on the world will be severe, to include possible extinction. On top of that, I'm also very concerned that it will happen sooner than most people expect, even sooner than most scientists presently predict.
There's an interesting blog entry in The Economist that says out loud something that has been running through the back of my mind while watching TV, seeing the Haiti incident unfold—that there are opportunities to learn something about the inevitable crowd control we'll need to practice when Climate Change sets in.
As I sit and watch the events in Haiti, I find myself thinking, “This is what it could be like all over the world when the sea level rises to flood the major cities. Many of our most densely inhabited areas are built on the water. That means flooding could displace a lot of people. And where all those people go? How will life begin again for them, and how will such new beginnings affect others? What societal rules will evolve for reclaiming any bit of order from such a shattered world as these people are living?
It's an awful thing, what happened to Haiti. And many probably want to believe it's something unique, something that couldn't happen again. To think we might have to endure more of these, especially soon, is almost unbearable. But if we feel that way, we should be doing a lot more active things about Climate Change than we presently are. Because as things are going, this is going to recur.
And Climate Change doesn't just bring flooding. Flooding means a lot of people not working, but mouths still to feed. It means lost productivity. The heat itself and the changes in weather patterns generally mean a risk of crop failures and disease, and that can lead to famine. It means some areas may be uninhabitable and that in turn means some places in the world may prefer different areas to live. That may lead to war, or perhaps just skirmishes, but fighting of one kind or another in any case. All in all, it can quickly get messy if we don't understand how it plays out and how to avoid the worst of it.
Rush Limbaugh has criticized the US military for being “meals on wheels.” In fact, I'd much rather see them doing this kind of thing than worrying about Iraq and Afghanistan. In the end, this is the kind of thing that is really going to matter. If we've squandered all our resources playing with wars we can't win, we won't have anything left to use on situations in the future, even situations in our own country.
I worry that soon we'll just feel we've spent enough and will move our collective consciousness on. That will be bad for Haiti, but—and importantly—it will be bad for us, too. What would be worse than something like Haiti happening again would be for us not have used this opportunity to learn.
We should think of money spent on helping not just as charity, but as an investment. It builds global goodwill, and that's already good. But also, and this is my point, we might learn by experimenting with different paradigms for how to help.
There are a lot of people hurting and we could be scientific about it. Try a variety of things and measure the effectiveness. They're hurting pretty badly and I think they'd be up for it. Think of it like NASA—but perhaps even more relevant—having a direct goal, in this case helping people, but also bringing side benefits that will enrich us in the future. When next would we get the chance to do this kind of research, planning, and preparing but when it's too late, when we're knee-deep in yet another such a crisis?
It could matter to us some day directly, perhaps sooner than people think. And we shouldn't waste the chance to be prepared.
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We should invest in Haiti. The small island of Bonaire makes a $22 million profit every year on eco-tourism alone. Last I check, wars only make profits for war lords.
ttfn, some great points. Thanks.
If warming actually occurs and water rises in some areas, then rain patterns will also change and land that formerly wasn't usable for farming will become so. People will move around and food will get grown in new places. Things change, people adapt.
The bottom line problem is that adaptation can only happen if given enough time. I'm expecting something more like what happened with the dinosaurs not the cavemen, where we'll be lucky if mammals at all survive. And I'm expecting it in a matter of a small number of decades, faster than even the most pessimistic scientist says, for reasons I've outlined in the essay that come down to my belief that sociologically, the data we're hearing, for all it's accused of being overblown, is probably (a) an underestimate and (b) not linear.
Very true. I live in an area that floods. The UW has done studies and the amount of snow pack versus precipitation the Cascade Mountains are receiving over the last twenty years is decreasing. This has lead to increased incidences of flooding. Seattle being a Pacific Coast port city, isn't at risk to the violent weather as the south & east, but earthquakes are a grave danger to us. It is much easier to deal with a problem before it is so serious we are clamoring to dig ourselves out. I pray we do so before we reach that tipping point.
In terms of Haiti, my one hope is the US government does not do what it always does - be arrogant. It is interesting to have Wyclef Jean in there, here his solutions, and see some of them being enacted. I hate the word "empower", but it is the best word I can think of. I hope these resources are used to stabilize the country and then empower them to raise themselves up out of poverty. However, the US has never once done this effectively, and certainly does not employ this attitude within its own borders for the poor. Charity can be a tricky thing. Having Wyclef Jean on Haiti's side is the best thing Haiti has going for it. He is a rich soul.
Beautiful and timely piece Kent. I look forward to reading the Economist piece.
As to Wyclef Jean, I haven't been following him but did some reading at Wikipedia. I think it's great to have that kind of involvement, though in the context of my remarks here, I guess my ponit is that relying on any single individual is a danger because it doesn't put process in place that can be reused on other occasions. What I'm advocating is that we not treat this as something that you just finesse, but something we learn as a society how to do right. That doesn't mean individuals shouldn't try to fill the many gaps. I just hope government comes to see this as a much better and more legitimate function of international policy than many of the other things we often involve ourselves with.
I do hope we learn something from the process and study the process for what works! Yes, this is a much better use of our time despite what greedy old Rush says.
Those who deny global climate change, it seems to me, are invested in a world that will end soon, so they don't have much reason to care. Much more to say, but feeling too tired. Still, I agree with what you've written. Bjorn Lomborg is simply wrong. Making some areas "more" habitable while most of the world suffers is going to be disaster on a world-wide disaster.
Incidentally, David Brin has a piece up on rebuilding Haiti.
It's also going to be a problem that the worst hit places are supposed to be the poorest countries. It's sad that damage we're (and other industrial nations) causing will not as strongly affect ourselves as others. No wonder there's so little incentive for change.
First, thanks for letting me know you put this up. I've been a bit busy lately, so I am just getting around to this. One of the things that really concerns me about climate change is the general assumption that we CAN AFFECT IT. See, it worries me that there are so many assumptions being made, and quite frankly because of the very narrow window we're seeing this through that's all we really CAN do is make assumptions. But what if those assumptions are wrong?
I agree that we need to reduce our production of greenhouse gases, and I agree we need to have a zero tolerance policy for pollution wherever possible. But I also see a need for great care. We have been on this planet for such a short time, in the grand scheme of things. Our records of weather patterns and natural disasters is even shorter still.
If we act in what we believe to be the bests interests of the people and the planet, and we are wrong, we could bring up the cataclysm we so desperately should want to avoid.
In your reply to Karin you said, "The collective implication of such backlashes is that we're probably doomed even if there's still time to act because, unfortunately, the "to act" implies we'd actually, uh, act. And since we're avoiding that. The "there's still time" goes out the window."
It may very well be that there is in fact no time to act regardless, because there may be absolutely nothing we can act upon. If climate change is simply part of a larger cycle, and we try to change it, the consequences could be catastrophic. If climate change is a result of human activity, reversing that needs careful consideration. This planet has adapted over millions of years. Not doing anything should not be an option for us, but I am convinced we need to act in the most careful manner possible.
We're human, and we make mistakes. Making another mistake here might just be the end of us.
Having gotten that out of my system, I will say that using natural disasters such as this to prepare for other disasters is a very smart thing to do. Additionally, it might be wise if we moved the capital from Washington DC to someplace more centrally located. The last thing we should allow is for our seat of government to be wiped out in the first tsunami that comes our way.
As far as the whole "51st state" thing is concerned, one of the things we need to be keenly aware of is that many of our problems globally stem from our continuous attempts to shore up governments in other countries. This does not build up good will towards us, especially when we covertly bring those governments into being to begin with. Helping a population is one thing; propping up foreign governments is something else.
Rated.
Regarding Climate Change, the action I specifically want is to invest really heavily in (a) a clarification of the current situation and (b) a list of the options. I'm not saying we should just dive in and do something random. But I used to have a wallet card that said something about the three steps of the problem solving process, which if memory serves are: Recognize that a problem exists. Characterize the problem. Solve the problem. If it didn't say that, then you can just call me cool for thinking up something new. Anyway, I think we're at Characterize the problem and we should be at Solve the problem. I think the problem is characterized scientifically because I believe the scientists. I don't think the problem is characterized socially because the nation has some number of people we have failed to adequately educate, some number of people who are educated but not paying attention, some number of people who are flooded with information and uncertain about who to believe, some number of people who know the truth and don't care figuring they'll die before it matters and just want to be greedy, and so on. Many kinds of people. We need a consensus to move forward. If we don't get it, we're doomed. But to be clear, if you want my best personal opinion, we're well into the timeframe when serious action is required even if we don't right now have the political consensus on what that action is. I think a plan of action, even one based on partial information, would do better for us than no action.
See, I'm not so sure about that. IF we wind up attempting to alter a normal climate cycle, we could muck things up significantly worse. We are trying to tinker with a complex system we don't fully comprehend and we're doing it blindfolded. I think we're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so I agree we need to do something. But we'd better make sure we're doing something based on the best possible information at hand. And we'd better pray to the universe that we aren't wrong. While I'm all for doing the things we are reasonably sure won't do any harm (i.e. reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, reductions in pollution, promotion of clean energy alternatives) I also think we need to be damn careful about "dramatic solutions". :-D
I know you weren't advocating a 51st state, just thought I'd throw my two cents in. I agree, it's a certainty that someone else is going to be looking to do it. I think we can actively work to prevent that by providing as much aid as possible. Maybe even by throwing whatever weight we have left around a bit. maybe even offer them the same deal we offered Puerto Rico - just become a U.S. protectorate for now.
Firestorm, I would direct people to my Climate Change press clippings if they want more data on climate change. Thanks for reminding me to mention that. As for questions about the cost of CO2 mitigation, etc., the real question is “if the cost were very high, is there an alternative to fixing it?” What's your alternate proposal? To just assume it will fix itself?
Yeah, Kent. I'm there. I guess my biggest concern is giving our government carte blanche to take whatever means they deem necessary to resolve ANY problem because we all know how well that works. Certain things I can get behind right away (and I outlined many of them).
1) as ever, Kent, admirable analysis and explication
2) the nations of the world need to establish and support rapid response teams whose only job is to be ready to go into action on an hour's notice for disaster relief anywhere in the world, not to do so is like a major city without a fire department, while any individual disaster may be more or less unpredictable, the occurence of multiple disasters every year is certain, and those disasters are likely to be more frequent and more devastating with the effects of climate change
3) climate catastrophe is inevitable, the small differences that aware and committed individuals can make in their impact on the environment are insignificant compared to the massive energy and commercial infrastructures that can only be made more climate friendly from the top down, there's no political solution to the crisis since politics is all about compromise while the laws of physics are inflexible, any compromise means an inadequate response to the problem, Mother Nature doesn't need 60 votes in the Senate or consensus of the permanent members of the Security Council