Kent Pitman

Kent Pitman
Location
New England, USA
Title
Philosopher, Technologist, Writer
Bio
I've been using the net in various roles—technical, social, and political—for the last 30 years. I'm disappointed that most forums don't pay for good writing and I'm ever in search of forums that do. (I've not seen any Tippem money, that's for sure.) And I worry some that our posting here for free could one day put paid writers in Closed Salon out of work. See my personal home page for more about me.

MY RECENT POSTS

JANUARY 24, 2010 2:05PM

Haiti: A Dry Run for Climate Change’s Agony

Rate: 20 Flag

What happened with the earthquake in Haiti is horrible. And yet, I and others are worried that Climate Change will lead to much worse.

If temperature rises even just a small number of degrees, the effects on the world will be severe, to include possible extinction. On top of that, I'm also very concerned that it will happen sooner than most people expect, even sooner than most scientists presently predict.

There's an interesting blog entry in The Economist that says out loud something that has been running through the back of my mind while watching TV, seeing the Haiti incident unfold—that there are opportunities to learn something about the inevitable crowd control we'll need to practice when Climate Change sets in.

As I sit and watch the events in Haiti, I find myself thinking, “This is what it could be like all over the world when the sea level rises to flood the major cities. Many of our most densely inhabited areas are built on the water. That means flooding could displace a lot of people. And where all those people go? How will life begin again for them, and how will such new beginnings affect others? What societal rules will evolve for reclaiming any bit of order from such a shattered world as these people are living?

It's an awful thing, what happened to Haiti. And many probably want to believe it's something unique, something that couldn't happen again. To think we might have to endure more of these, especially soon, is almost unbearable. But if we feel that way, we should be doing a lot more active things about Climate Change than we presently are. Because as things are going, this is going to recur.

And Climate Change doesn't just bring flooding. Flooding means a lot of people not working, but mouths still to feed. It means lost productivity. The heat itself and the changes in weather patterns generally mean a risk of crop failures and disease, and that can lead to famine. It means some areas may be uninhabitable and that in turn means some places in the world may prefer different areas to live. That may lead to war, or perhaps just skirmishes, but fighting of one kind or another in any case. All in all, it can quickly get messy if we don't understand how it plays out and how to avoid the worst of it.

Rush Limbaugh has criticized the US military for being “meals on wheels.” In fact, I'd much rather see them doing this kind of thing than worrying about Iraq and Afghanistan. In the end, this is the kind of thing that is really going to matter. If we've squandered all our resources playing with wars we can't win, we won't have anything left to use on situations in the future, even situations in our own country.

I worry that soon we'll just feel we've spent enough and will move our collective consciousness on. That will be bad for Haiti, but—and importantly—it will be bad for us, too. What would be worse than something like Haiti happening again would be for us not have used this opportunity to learn.

We should think of money spent on helping not just as charity, but as an investment. It builds global goodwill, and that's already good. But also, and this is my point, we might learn by experimenting with different paradigms for how to help.

There are a lot of people hurting and we could be scientific about it. Try a variety of things and measure the effectiveness. They're hurting pretty badly and I think they'd be up for it. Think of it like NASA—but perhaps even more relevant—having a direct goal, in this case helping people, but also bringing side benefits that will enrich us in the future. When next would we get the chance to do this kind of research, planning, and preparing but when it's too late, when we're knee-deep in yet another such a crisis?

It could matter to us some day directly, perhaps sooner than people think. And we shouldn't waste the chance to be prepared.


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You nailed this: The importance of "global goodwill." There is no other option if we are true to our humanity. Rated
Bonnie, this wasn't my point in the article, but it is an implied risk, so I'm gla dyou raised it. I doubt we are leaning that way. Not yet anyway. Not publicly, at least. Publicly we want to make sure they understand it's not our goal. A curious consequence of not talking about it openly, though, is that other countries probably are thinking this way. Maybe this is the real reason Blackwater is getting involved... I'm thinking there's a good chance some other country, maybe one we like less, will make it their “51st” state. The power vacuum doesn't go away just because we refuse to exploit it. Then again, I'm not advocating exploiting it. I'm just hoping the Administration is seeing all the angles. I think Obama sometimes overlooks things because he assumes too much the best in people who are not responding in kind.
A dry run for the kind of thing climate change may be throwing at us; that's absolutely what Haiti is. As you say, rises in sea level, and starvation as agriculture is impacted, coupled with mass movements of people and recurrent, large-scale refugee crisis situations, will at some point become the norm. Another possible effect of global warming is the appearance in the Atlantic and Pacific of hyper-storms generated by ever-warming ocean temperatures. These could sit out in mid-ocean from late spring through fall, generating hurricane after hurricane, making previous bad storm seasons look like child's play. Imagine Katrina-like hurricanes hitting in rapid succession during the warmer months, over and over and over, and it's easy to see that we need to start becoming masters in the art of disaster relief. It sounds like science fiction, but science fact says that we're in for all kinds of challenges; frankly, I don't see us being able to cope with the scale of what's going to be happening in coming decades.
Cathy, thanks. I think global goodwill is one of several reasons for doing this. My fear is that soon the voices of charity will give way to the voices of “it's their problem,” just as the health care debate tends to drift from “It's terrible those people are sick.” to “I don't want my tax dollars used for someone else.” Alas. Helping others can be a noble goal all by itself, but in this case I'm arguing even if you're someone who's of a mind to be really selfish, it should still be a goal.
nanatehay, I agree. In fact, for all the misery, these early catastrophes may be, with benefit of future hindsight, viewed as lucky in that we saw them at a slow rate that we could addres them as individuals. When it gets to the place where they are just the norm, no one will be mounting charges to fix things. They'll be too mired in their own problems to care.
I'd like to also point out that raising the temperature of the sea just 1-3 degrees kills off the coral reefs of the world, which in turn would lead to the loss of shoreline protections, making most shorelines dangerous to inhabit. Not to mention the loss of 25% of the fish in the ocean. It is in our best interest to be concerned about global warming.

We should invest in Haiti. The small island of Bonaire makes a $22 million profit every year on eco-tourism alone. Last I check, wars only make profits for war lords.
Karin, sadly, the backlash you probably-correctly predict is the same backlash Obama will hear if he starts to get serious about Climate Change. The collective implication of such backlashes is that we're probably doomed even if there's still time to act because, unfortunately, the “to act” implies we'd actually, uh, act. And since we're avoiding that. The “there's still time” goes out the window.
Bonnie, no argument there. The distribution of supplies is critical for the kinds of forseeable situations like nanatehay suggests above.

ttfn, some great points. Thanks.
Kent, if cavemen could survive multiple ice ages and warmings then we will certainly be able to survive some change also.

If warming actually occurs and water rises in some areas, then rain patterns will also change and land that formerly wasn't usable for farming will become so. People will move around and food will get grown in new places. Things change, people adapt.
Steve, that's a nice vision but Climate change is going to happen fast, not linearly. Everyone keeps looking to the past change as a predictor. See my Climate Change essay for a rundown on the math. That article isn't as tight as I wish, and I need to issue an update. Nonetheless, it gets across some of the basic ideas.

The bottom line problem is that adaptation can only happen if given enough time. I'm expecting something more like what happened with the dinosaurs not the cavemen, where we'll be lucky if mammals at all survive. And I'm expecting it in a matter of a small number of decades, faster than even the most pessimistic scientist says, for reasons I've outlined in the essay that come down to my belief that sociologically, the data we're hearing, for all it's accused of being overblown, is probably (a) an underestimate and (b) not linear.
You are right Kent...the climate change forebodes terrors of which we can not imagine. I am in the Midwest, but their are lower corridors for the advancing waters, and we would no doubt be the receptacle for the fleeing masses. Famine, war....along with the establishments of defensive city-states.
Gary, nice to see you even if the topic isn't happy. I think with the changing weather patterns, there are issues of drought in your area, too. Seems like no one is spared some form of concern.
Kent - good analysis here. Unfortunately, based on the current and past states of the US government log jam it's hard to imagine that we as a country can be prepared to deal with such a far reaching and complex problem, let alone adequately address its fallout. It seems nearly every issue that comes before our elected officials brings petty bickering and posturing as opposed to reasoned argument and consensus. Regardless of where one stands on climate change - a cycle of nature or brought on by man - and whether or not anything we do in terms of environmental regulation can stem that tide, the fact is it's happening and we are not prepared for its consequences. I hope for a miracle but I'm not optimistic.
I am so concerned that the gutting of campaign finance laws will make it even tougher for our country to lead on the issue of climate change. I, too, thought that the scenes in Haiti are a precursor of what we will see as the earth begins to boil. I am beginning to think that people will have to subvert their government's pro-growth agendas. We can all cut back - on the amount of "stuff" we buy, even on the number of children we have. Thanks for a great piece.
Thanks, Smithery. To some I may sound like a pessimist with these dire warnings, but I count myself an optimist in that I'm unwilling to give up. When I have given up, expect me not to bother posting. I think it's essential to behave as if there's something that might help, even though I admit the case you make isn't really unfounded.
Bonnie Bucqueroux, I don't want to dismiss the importance of individual action, but I'm nearly certain I've heard Gore and other say that even if all individuals really did their part, it won't be enough without government action. There are some issues of policy that affect how corporations work that if we don't take hold of will do us in. And the thing you mention about the Supreme Court is central in all this. If Big Oil ad dollars start to influence policy on oil use, that's a problem of major proportions.
"Because as things are going, this is going to recur."

Very true. I live in an area that floods. The UW has done studies and the amount of snow pack versus precipitation the Cascade Mountains are receiving over the last twenty years is decreasing. This has lead to increased incidences of flooding. Seattle being a Pacific Coast port city, isn't at risk to the violent weather as the south & east, but earthquakes are a grave danger to us. It is much easier to deal with a problem before it is so serious we are clamoring to dig ourselves out. I pray we do so before we reach that tipping point.

In terms of Haiti, my one hope is the US government does not do what it always does - be arrogant. It is interesting to have Wyclef Jean in there, here his solutions, and see some of them being enacted. I hate the word "empower", but it is the best word I can think of. I hope these resources are used to stabilize the country and then empower them to raise themselves up out of poverty. However, the US has never once done this effectively, and certainly does not employ this attitude within its own borders for the poor. Charity can be a tricky thing. Having Wyclef Jean on Haiti's side is the best thing Haiti has going for it. He is a rich soul.

Beautiful and timely piece Kent. I look forward to reading the Economist piece.
Sparking, you're right. The “deniers” like to claim that the terminology shift from Global Warming to Climate Change is evasive, but really there are all kinds of weather pattern shifts (whose underlying cause is still temperature change) that have to be dealt with and are not made clear by just the name Global Warming.

As to Wyclef Jean, I haven't been following him but did some reading at Wikipedia. I think it's great to have that kind of involvement, though in the context of my remarks here, I guess my ponit is that relying on any single individual is a danger because it doesn't put process in place that can be reused on other occasions. What I'm advocating is that we not treat this as something that you just finesse, but something we learn as a society how to do right. That doesn't mean individuals shouldn't try to fill the many gaps. I just hope government comes to see this as a much better and more legitimate function of international policy than many of the other things we often involve ourselves with.
Kent - Yes, I do agree with you. I guess what I was trying to get at is Wyclef is American/Haitian. He is a great spokesman for Haiti so as not to trample over the people for American self-interest, which I have seen time and time again. That's all I meant by that - his leadership will be indispensable.

I do hope we learn something from the process and study the process for what works! Yes, this is a much better use of our time despite what greedy old Rush says.
Well, crap, I just lost everything I wrote. I wanted to bring your attention to this article, but I can't find the full text. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/article-preview?article_id=17852

Those who deny global climate change, it seems to me, are invested in a world that will end soon, so they don't have much reason to care. Much more to say, but feeling too tired. Still, I agree with what you've written. Bjorn Lomborg is simply wrong. Making some areas "more" habitable while most of the world suffers is going to be disaster on a world-wide disaster.
FLW, thanks for the pointer to the book review and for the support on the issue of investing there.

Incidentally, David Brin has a piece up on rebuilding Haiti.
Interesting idea, though the potential ramifications of experiments in aid delivery are a bit unsettling. I sure wouldn't want to be in the control group.
I agree with this article, although I would be surprised if the us or any other country added haiti as their 51st state. although their government has failed, I'm not sure that any other country can do it better than the haitians can. It makes me cringe to think of Halliberton setting up shop on the tax payer's dime, rebuilding the infrastructure at top U.S. dollar. Although, I'm perfectly content seeing our military act as a soup kitchen, rather than authorizing more drone strikes.

It's also going to be a problem that the worst hit places are supposed to be the poorest countries. It's sad that damage we're (and other industrial nations) causing will not as strongly affect ourselves as others. No wonder there's so little incentive for change.
I just keep thinking about the thriller/disaster books I read years ago in which water had become so scarce in certain parts of the world it was traded on the black market...
Kent,

First, thanks for letting me know you put this up. I've been a bit busy lately, so I am just getting around to this. One of the things that really concerns me about climate change is the general assumption that we CAN AFFECT IT. See, it worries me that there are so many assumptions being made, and quite frankly because of the very narrow window we're seeing this through that's all we really CAN do is make assumptions. But what if those assumptions are wrong?

I agree that we need to reduce our production of greenhouse gases, and I agree we need to have a zero tolerance policy for pollution wherever possible. But I also see a need for great care. We have been on this planet for such a short time, in the grand scheme of things. Our records of weather patterns and natural disasters is even shorter still.

If we act in what we believe to be the bests interests of the people and the planet, and we are wrong, we could bring up the cataclysm we so desperately should want to avoid.

In your reply to Karin you said, "The collective implication of such backlashes is that we're probably doomed even if there's still time to act because, unfortunately, the "to act" implies we'd actually, uh, act. And since we're avoiding that. The "there's still time" goes out the window."

It may very well be that there is in fact no time to act regardless, because there may be absolutely nothing we can act upon. If climate change is simply part of a larger cycle, and we try to change it, the consequences could be catastrophic. If climate change is a result of human activity, reversing that needs careful consideration. This planet has adapted over millions of years. Not doing anything should not be an option for us, but I am convinced we need to act in the most careful manner possible.

We're human, and we make mistakes. Making another mistake here might just be the end of us.

Having gotten that out of my system, I will say that using natural disasters such as this to prepare for other disasters is a very smart thing to do. Additionally, it might be wise if we moved the capital from Washington DC to someplace more centrally located. The last thing we should allow is for our seat of government to be wiped out in the first tsunami that comes our way.

As far as the whole "51st state" thing is concerned, one of the things we need to be keenly aware of is that many of our problems globally stem from our continuous attempts to shore up governments in other countries. This does not build up good will towards us, especially when we covertly bring those governments into being to begin with. Helping a population is one thing; propping up foreign governments is something else.


Rated.
Bill, to be clear, I wasn't advocating the 51st state thing, and this article is not about that. Rather, I was merely noting because the matter was raised that the nature of our policy (not just Obama's but the US's in general) will almost certainly lead to someone else doing what we think we should not. I don't know what to say about that, frankly. But it might be true independent of what I think, so I said it.

Regarding Climate Change, the action I specifically want is to invest really heavily in (a) a clarification of the current situation and (b) a list of the options. I'm not saying we should just dive in and do something random. But I used to have a wallet card that said something about the three steps of the problem solving process, which if memory serves are: Recognize that a problem exists. Characterize the problem. Solve the problem. If it didn't say that, then you can just call me cool for thinking up something new. Anyway, I think we're at Characterize the problem and we should be at Solve the problem. I think the problem is characterized scientifically because I believe the scientists. I don't think the problem is characterized socially because the nation has some number of people we have failed to adequately educate, some number of people who are educated but not paying attention, some number of people who are flooded with information and uncertain about who to believe, some number of people who know the truth and don't care figuring they'll die before it matters and just want to be greedy, and so on. Many kinds of people. We need a consensus to move forward. If we don't get it, we're doomed. But to be clear, if you want my best personal opinion, we're well into the timeframe when serious action is required even if we don't right now have the political consensus on what that action is. I think a plan of action, even one based on partial information, would do better for us than no action.
But to be clear, if you want my best personal opinion, we're well into the timeframe when serious action is required even if we don't right now have the political consensus on what that action is. I think a plan of action, even one based on partial information, would do better for us than no action.

See, I'm not so sure about that. IF we wind up attempting to alter a normal climate cycle, we could muck things up significantly worse. We are trying to tinker with a complex system we don't fully comprehend and we're doing it blindfolded. I think we're damned if we do and damned if we don't, so I agree we need to do something. But we'd better make sure we're doing something based on the best possible information at hand. And we'd better pray to the universe that we aren't wrong. While I'm all for doing the things we are reasonably sure won't do any harm (i.e. reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, reductions in pollution, promotion of clean energy alternatives) I also think we need to be damn careful about "dramatic solutions". :-D

I know you weren't advocating a 51st state, just thought I'd throw my two cents in. I agree, it's a certainty that someone else is going to be looking to do it. I think we can actively work to prevent that by providing as much aid as possible. Maybe even by throwing whatever weight we have left around a bit. maybe even offer them the same deal we offered Puerto Rico - just become a U.S. protectorate for now.
Sorry I am so late getting here...This is what nightmares are made of. I see this horror in my mind and it is terrifying. I don't see a "good" end to all of this. Just greed screw the world and nothing else. Great thoughts, how to move forward with them is the question.
Bill, we just can't drag our heels on getting a clear consensus about the problem because you fear that if we know something, we'll make a bad choice. Let's get the information, then decide. It's pointless to debate the point you're trying to debate if there's no public consensus on the facts. My remark wasn't trying to pre-decide what to do. It was saying that my guess about what we'll find is "We're definitely going to die as a species if we don't take some action. We definitely do not know the right action to take. We will only die as a species with some lesser odds if we try any one of the options available. We might make things worse if we try the wrong one." If my belief is right, we have no choice. But I am not asking you to decide to act now. I'm saying please join the consensus to say that we must spend serious money assessing the situation and getting to a place where we are no longer wasting time debating. You have to at least grant that if those of use who are worried are right, there is no time to wait. And if you think that, then you think there is reasonable reason to believe it warrants more than passing consideration.
Lunchlady, there was no specific time by which everyone had to register an opinion. I'm glad you stopped by. I'm sorry about scaring you, but my concern is that if we don't think about it, it could be worse... No good answers.

Firestorm, I would direct people to my Climate Change press clippings if they want more data on climate change. Thanks for reminding me to mention that. As for questions about the cost of CO2 mitigation, etc., the real question is “if the cost were very high, is there an alternative to fixing it?” What's your alternate proposal? To just assume it will fix itself?
You have to at least grant that if those of use who are worried are right, there is no time to wait.

Yeah, Kent. I'm there. I guess my biggest concern is giving our government carte blanche to take whatever means they deem necessary to resolve ANY problem because we all know how well that works. Certain things I can get behind right away (and I outlined many of them).
Firestorm, (a) you misread what I said, (b) I did not see your first message or would have answered in detail, as I do all reasonable questions, and (c) your next message is snarky, so I'm just not going to answer right now.
been absent a long time, but I'll throw in my 2 cents:

1) as ever, Kent, admirable analysis and explication

2) the nations of the world need to establish and support rapid response teams whose only job is to be ready to go into action on an hour's notice for disaster relief anywhere in the world, not to do so is like a major city without a fire department, while any individual disaster may be more or less unpredictable, the occurence of multiple disasters every year is certain, and those disasters are likely to be more frequent and more devastating with the effects of climate change

3) climate catastrophe is inevitable, the small differences that aware and committed individuals can make in their impact on the environment are insignificant compared to the massive energy and commercial infrastructures that can only be made more climate friendly from the top down, there's no political solution to the crisis since politics is all about compromise while the laws of physics are inflexible, any compromise means an inadequate response to the problem, Mother Nature doesn't need 60 votes in the Senate or consensus of the permanent members of the Security Council
I guess that was 3 cents
Works for me, Roy. Thanks for stopping by.