By Kimberly Krautter 

On Wednesday, Open Salon blogger Maddox opined that cross-over voting had a major impact on Terry McAuliffe's loss in the Virginia Democratic Primary.  Cross-over voting is a very effective strategy here in Georgia. We have been able to defeat the scariest of candidates in the past via grassroots whisper campaigns encouraging voters to pick up the ballot and vote AGAINST a candidate in an opposing party.

I have no doubt that this was a factor in the Virginia race, but it will be interesting to see to what degree. 

Several years ago, despite being an avowed Independent, I "lost my mind" (as I like to tell my friends) and took a sabbatical to become a Democratic campaign field organizer and manager.  I had been aware of cross-over voting for years as I had picked up a Republican ballot to vote against a scary GOP candidate or a Democratic ballot to vote against a scary Democrat. I never really thought anything about it other than thankful that as a Georgian I didn't have to register for any party and had the freedom to vote in a primary election for/against anyone I chose.

The key phrase here is PRIMARY election...

When I jumped the fence into the world of the political operative, I learned something that very few people realize... Your vote is not in fact private.

When you select the Republican or Democratic ballot in a primary election, that selection is recorded against your name.  Of course the actual person you voted for IS private, but by a clever process of elimination and deduction your vote can be sussed out. Campaign strategists use this database information from election to election to great effect. No doubt right now McAuliffe, the Virginia Democratic victor Creigh Deeds and the GOP candidates alike are furtively studying Tuesday's data to determine just how people voted.

They will scroll down the voter rolls and be able to tell exactly how Joe Virginian voted in the last 6-8 primaries. Did he vote Republican or Democratic? Which years did he vote which way? Who were the candidates each of those years. What can we induce from the way Joe voted; what will persuade him to vote for my candidate in November? How many others voted like Joe, and what trends, handicaps and advantages can we deduce from that?

So, yes, Maddox's observation was astute. And his conclusions are reasonable, but there is a far larger calculus at play. Cross-over voting does have an impact, but on a per-primary basis, it is not the best barometer on which to forecast the next general election.