I wasn't expecting much from John McCain's speech Thursday night, especially not after the humdinger given by Sarah Palin the night before.
Still, his story is compelling and I found myself riveted to the set when he relayed his experiences in a POW camp. And of course this story was cemented in my mind when I watched him wave to the crowd, knowing that he can barely raise his arms to chest level because of the broken bones he suffered that were not treated soon enough and never healed properly.
However, the true "Oh, shit" moment came when he completely reinvented the campaign from one of experience to one of maverick/reformer. Suddenly, Sarah Palin's connection became stronger than simply an appeal to the fundamentalists. It was "Mr. Smith Returns with Sidekick to Washington" to kick butt on behalf of us average Joes and Janes.
I suddenly envisioned the very real possibility that McCain-Palin could win this election, based partly on the newly-rebranded Maverick brand and partly on the way these two messengers could resonate with voters. If polls today are an indication, McCain netted a larger viewership for his acceptance speech than did Obama. In fact, 58% of those polled now have a favorable image of John McCain over 57% favorable for Obama. It's just one point, but...
In some ways this election reminds me of the 1988 presidential contest between Bush I/Quayle and Dukakis/Bentsen. The Republicans that year also weren't excited about their prospects, largely because Ronald Reagan wasn't on the ballot; the economy was bad; and there was also a Republican scandal (Contragate).
Dan Quayle was a little known longhot pick for VP with limited experience (albeit more than Sarah Palin), who appealed to conservatives and thus energized that base. And he had his moments, too: potato(e), "You're no Jack Kennedy" at the VP debate, and others.
Democrats should have won that election. Dukakis had a healthy lead (15-17 points); he had experience; he was 100% on the issues. Yet...
There are differences from 1988, of course: today we're in two wars; our economy isn't just bad, it's tanking; we have a housing crisis that's playing out like falling dominoes; we have skyrocketing energy costs; and we have a hugely unpopular Republican president/administration.
Yet this race is a dead heat. And as I listened to television coverage of Barack Obama speaking to a group I couldn't help but feel that it's Michael Dukakis all over again.
I can't put my finger on precisely what "it" factor is missing from Obama's stump speeches; the closest I get is that he just doesn't connect viscerally. He talks to people like he is standing in front of a classroom giving an "energetic" lecture and remains coolly detached from these people and their pain. And Joe Biden can only do so much to shore up this deficit.
We elect our leaders on their intelligence. But we also elect them based on how well they "get" us. John McCain and Sarah Palin share nothing in common with Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the issues, but there is a visceral connection these two make that can't be underestimated and it is this that really worries me.TIP:
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Dr. Susanne Freeborn
Joan Walsh
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Comments
With all due respect, I agree with everything else in your post and do not want to detract from your point, my gut reaction to:
We elect our leaders on their intelligence.
Since when???
If that were true, it would be no contest. I have become so cynical over the last 8 years and 6 days, the great big middle and the undecideds don't give a damn about intelligence.
Sarah Palin hit a homerun because she showed she was capable of reading a snarky speech over a teleprompter. The one thing we do know about her is that she was a broadcaster and has won elections.
Well said about intelligence. Maybe I'm projecting...
It's picky, I know, but that's actually two things.
I have to say, I think you are quite a ways off the mark with feeling Obama doesn't connect with people on a visceral level, Laura. I was inside Mile High Stadium last week a witnessed him connect quite viscerally with 80,000 people. the Republicans, on the other hand, couldn't fill a 20,000 seat hall in Minneapolis.
I've said it on a couple of other posts, but to borrow Dick Cheney's terminology here and use it in what I believe is a far more applicable context, we're seeing the dying throes of conservatism in this country. McCain and Palin will be shown in the next two months to have nothing to offer anyone in America outside a dwindling minority of radical, theocratic conservatives who thrive on stoking the flames of hate and fear.
Obama by 10.
I know Barack gives a great speech, especially before big crowds. This is his greatest asset. My point is that he isn't able to do this in the small intimate gatherings in diners, union halls, school gyms, taverns, grocery stores, hospitals/clinics, etc. -- the everyday places that people actually live and work. And this asset could turn out to be a huge liability for him as we head to the finish line.
Two more things and I don't want to get petty either at 4 in the morning:
1) Obama connected magically with me over the TV set, while he was on the Bill O'Reilly show (egads!). He totally kicked butt. And then, I saw him randomly on an ad today and he really did connect.
2) Not a lot of the undecideds will be going out to see him in person. He has to make his connection over the plasma TV.
I still think we need to make TRUST the issue.
Obama may have been involved in some shady deals, but he has been pretty straightforward about it. He has told the American people the TRUTH. About himself. About his running mate. About his policies.
Does anybody believe that about John McCain? Honor and trust are not the same thing, I have just come to realize.
I know you guys don't like personality politics, but issue politics win us Nobel Prizes, but lose us elections. It is visceral. Sing it loud. Sing it clear -
Whose hands would I put my children's future in? Obama and Biden hands down.
Let's just say I have some experience with presidential election politics and average Joes and Janes...
I don't mean disrespect to Obama, but political junkies and the college educated still aren't a majority in the country. I know it brings the debate down a few notches from where most of us want to see/hear it, but this is the reality.
Will this election be different? Are people so fed up - regardless of education or geography - that they'll say "Enough"? I hope so, but I have a nagging sensation in my gut...
I agree that picking Palin was to get the cultural conservatives and to engage in wedge politics. She is also different from other conservatives (fresh face, young, more contemporary) and has held elective office and acted in some ways as a reformer. It's the new face of cultural conservatives! She also puts forth an image of everymom and as a down-to-earth straight shooter; thus McCain can appease the base and build on his maverick credentials.
The other thing that McCain has that's very potent is the POW image.
When you put all of these factors together -- depending on how well McCain's campaign can do it -- the image/perception could once again override the issues. We'll see. This is just my 2 cents.
On top of everything else what kind of a man calls his wife a really disgusting word that NO one uses that is slang for a woman's body part and a trollop in the same sentence and then says he had a rough day? Too bad it was in front of three reporters. This man is not fit to clean Barack Obama's shoes and his choice of Palin is demeaning in every way to the Vice Presidency.