SEPTEMBER 2, 2008 4:16PM

Likelihood Palin Will Withdraw: 40%

Rate: 9 Flag

My two favorite news topics in the world are (1) politics and (2) Jamie Lynn Spears. And this Sarah Palin Saga is just a once-in-a-lifetime combination.

My prediction right now for the chances of her withdrawing is: 40%. I believe that if one more big revalation happens, that goes up to 95%. 

I don't need to rehash here why I put it so high, I think you are familiar with the details.

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I'm not so great at American history, but has a VP candidate ever withdrawn before the election?

Wow. That would be a logistical nightmare for the GOP if she did withdraw, wouldn't it?
I mean, you'd think that at some point, you have to cut your losses, no?

Then again, the "experienced" McCain campaign is so poorly managed that they might stick with her after all.

I think this is Harriet Miers Part II. As I've written earlier, had the GOP been invested in cultivating female leaders 10-20 years ago, they wouldn't be in this pickle of having such slim pickings for a female running mate for McCain. And the choice of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court was part of the same problem.
I'm not so great at American history, but has a VP candidate ever withdrawn before the election?

Yes. Thomas Eagleton, chosen by George McGovern to run against Nixon.

Madame Bitch, you could make a lot of money if you're right. Intrade has the probability down around 15% right now.
Sorry, poor wording on my part; obviously McGovern didn't choose Eagleton to run against Nixon all on his own. :-)
yeah, repugs are good at brazening it out, but i think this might be a tall order.
Yep. Shock treatments. For depression.

And, fwiw, Eagleton wasn't replaced until a few weeks after the convention. Of course, that year, the Democratic convention was in the first half of July. [I looked it up on wiki earlier, because I couldn't remember the timeline... even though it was the first time I could vote.]

I read the Intrade story earlier, and then it was at 18%. I'm not sure that it will even need something new for this to happen... just having one of the ongoing stories really break wide open might be enough.

Then, it will be odds on who's next.
If Palin is forced to withdraw (and, believe me, her boundless ambition won't let her withdraw voluntarily), I think that will be the final torpedo to sink McCain's ship.
Strange are the ways of the world. If Eagleton were today, he would go on TV, get the Oprah hug and benediction, the polls would pop. Which I bet will be the KarlRovian strategy re Palin -- maybe not on Oprah, but on the right wing equivalent, I presume there are some on Fox. How would I know, after all, I'm a...

Croceum Canem Democrat :-)
I'm with you, Madame; as the Palin debacle unfolds, I think more and more of Harriet Myers. Something just doesn't add up, the key note speech in Houston, the long flight while leaking amniotic fluid(?!), the passing two hospitals until she stopped at her own. I honestly don't know what to think other than something is going on that she's not sharing. Plus she was in the secessionist party. Plus she was for the Bridge to Nowhere and told fellow Alaskans the term was demeaning, that is until her speech with McCain. And she never gave the money back!

I put the percentage at 60%.
I'm afraid she is here to stay. Her effect on the religious right has been too powerful to let her go, and as others have said, I doubt she'll go voluntarily. Although I would finally be impressed if she did leave voluntarily for the sake of her children.

Madame, I wonder what a "big" revelation would be? Now that the press has had time to get to Alaska and investgate her actual record, many "little"(?) revelations seem to be coming out. I will even limit this to revelations made by finding and printing her own words on matters, and not include as yet unsubstianted claims of other potential issues. I wonder, how many littles equal a big?
Rumors of Palin stepping down seem more in line with a beauty pageant scandal than a Vice Presidential nominee position at this point in the process. Although, she may still harbor unresolved conflicts from her first runner up (second place) spot as Miss Wasilla in the 1984 Miss Alsaka competition that could arise to compromise her campaign's election strategy.
I love how everything that comes out was planned for by the McCain camp. They knew her daughter was pregnant, they thought her brand new baby was an asset, etc., ad nauseum.

This reminds me of a cat falling off the couch. No cat ever hides in shame. They freak out, flailing limbs and all, hitting the floor unceremoniously then they simply get up and (slowly) walk away like nothing happened. You can almost hear the little kitty saying, "I meant to do that!"

What's next? Sheesh.
Well, if you're an Obama supporter you want her to stay on the ticket as a wounded candidate. If she resigns, the whole thing goes away quick and with the short-term memory of the media, it would be as if it never happened and McCain's judgment is no longer called into question.

She has a terribly thin resume to be VP to a 72 year old man. If she stays on the ticket, her lack of foreign policy experience and previous membership in a separatist organization will be very helpful to Obama in neutralizing the "perceived" weakest point of his candidacy -- i.e. experience -- and an easy point of attack for him to continue on.

I say this because elections are about personalities instead of issues. Not because I endorse that paradigm.
The GOP won't and can't dump her from the ticket without pissing off the two reasons she was hired in the first place: (1) evangelicals and (2) Former Clinton supporters.

When the top of your ticket is 72 and diagnosed with a form of cancer that has a 90% recurrence rate and is nearly always fatal, the bottom of the ticket becomes more important.

The radical right is not going to abandon Sarah Palin. But a lot of folks in the middle will. And that is exactly where the fight is. This race is about independent voters -- moderate lefties and moderate righties -- the ones who could go either way. This pick was a disaster in terms of independent voters, and growing more so every day with every new revelation.

Changing the ticket now would leave McCain open to the criticism that McCain hasn't got the temperment or judgement to be President, playing right into the argument Obama is already making. However, it could mean he picks Joe Lieberman, at which point who knows what happens to the independent voters.
"Plus she was in the secessionist party."

THIS. I think THIS is going to blow up into the next and fatal big revelation.

That is, of course, unless there's something we all know nothing about, which with Palin, is actually likely....
I just read AP reporting that voter registration records show Plain has been a registered Democrat since 1982. Hubby was registered to the independent party, some of whose members advocated succession. So it won't be THAT one .......

There will be more though.
Palin is in it to win it. I put my money on her and McCain now -- unless Obama starts pandering to women in a big way.
LT BOhica, come now, she's against abortion for rape and incest, and against contraceptives among married couples?
Each time I hear this thought link

"Something just doesn't add up, the key note speech in Houston, the long flight while leaking amniotic fluid(?!), the passing two hospitals until she stopped at her own. I honestly don't know what to think other than something is going on that she's not sharing. "

I keep thinking that she was a conservative right to lifer carrying a child with a defect so bad that it would seriously affect her lifestyle and career. In the olden days, there might be a riding accident or a fall down the stairs to end it and save dignity. Perhaps her choices were unconscious desire to not go through with that live birth.

But I suppose even suggesting this makes me a bad person. I was tested because of late maternal age and I discussed all of our options and feelings about raising a child with a serious birth defect with my spouse before I took the test, because I didn't want my feelings to be colored by the "everything's fine" result, if it came. I wanted to be honest with myself and my spouse about whether I would want to deal with that for the rest of my life.

Hard-core right to lifers can't even go there. But as Rahul said, the decision she made to fly with broken water was not Pro-life.
"Second: This may be a replay of the McGovern/Eagleton fiasco; same result--VP-nominee withdraws--but for different reasons, of course. Don't waste a lot of time and effort deconstructing Gov. Palin."

Posted August 30, here @ Open Salon, by me.

Better late than never, Madame. ;)
At this point, whether she withdraws or not, the GOP ticket will continue to take serious damage.

My money's on her not withdrawing. This is not the same as Harriet Miers, this is much more fundamental and inextricably late in the game. They are having their convention this week, after all. Also, the religious right to which the GOP is so beholden would positively flip out if they pulled her.

Of course, I could be wrong - that's the nature of politics. Perhaps, if they could placate the religious right with some crass argument relating to Palin's daughter, maybe. Slim maybe.
Miz Puta, she is all those things and more, but stay tuned for the announcement -- which will be strategically made a few weeks prior to the election -- that she thinks abortion is an issue that should be left to the states.

BTW -- I think you are wrong on the Griswold issue. Think Progress' Wonk Room has a post and that is just the first google hit of many about her conflicting with McCain on that issue. Palin is pro-contraception.
LT, Palin is a member of Feminists for Life. That group is against contraceptives that are abortifecants (pill, IUD, ring, patch, implant, etc), and is against abortion in pretty much all cases. So it's an inference from her membership.

She's gonna be disowning a lot of things in the next few weeks if she is on that ticket that long...btw, the official republican party platform is against abortion for rape.
Here's a link, LT, explaining Feminists for Life's views on contraceptives and abortion: http://www.zimbio.com/pilot?ZURL=%2FSarah%2BPalin%2BPictures%2Farticles%2F18%2FPolitical%2BTalk%2BSarah%2BPalin%2Bopposes%2Bcondoms&URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2008%2F8%2F31%2F13384%2F5484%2F470%2F581256
Miz Puta, her membership is all very well and good, but you should still look into it further and see what she has actually said on the record.

Front the think progress post I referenced, but you did not bother to look at before posting your circumstantial evidence:

While running for governor in 2006, Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) portrayed herself as a pro-life feminist who opposed abortion but supported contraception. From Anchorage Daily News:

Palin said last month that no woman should have to choose between her career, education and her child. She is pro-contraception and said she’s a member of a pro-woman but anti-abortion group called Feminists for Life.

“I believe in the strength and the power of women, and the potential of every human life,” she said.

But Palin’s support for contraception clashes with McCain’s ignorant record of voting against expanding access to affordable birth control.
PS -- Miz Puta, the last tag on this post is very you.
My husband and I have a bet: He thinks Palin will pull out on her own in the next few days -- much like your projections.

My posture is that this whole Palin pick is a new page in the Rovian playbook that includes a well-timed end-around on the Thursday or Friday before the election.

Of course, I don't WANT this to happen. Something is not right here, however. As I posted on Joan's blog, the GOP is weak but not brain-dead. They are not going to roll over and play dead without a well-financed fight.

I think they are distracting us while focusing on the prize -- another "Swift-Boat"esque stunt JUST prior to the election...If this happens, I am moving back to Australia shortly thereafter.
Lisa,

According to Sidney Blumenthal on HuffPost, Rove was pushing for Romney, but McCain wanted Lieberman.

McCain was told that Lieberman would be impossible, and would cause a revolt at the convention. McCain couldn't accept Romney, and decided to go with Palin instead.

I can't imagine who he would choose if he had to start over again.
I think tonight's convention speeches made it even less likely that Palin with withdraw or be kicked out. The speakers all - including even Lieberman - went out of their way to embrace Palin. It's going to be all about her tomorrow. It's too late for the ticket. They've invested, and shown no sign of blinking - even if it results in their going down in flames.
I don't think McCain OR the country would accept Romney -- but how powerful is Rove these days? If he wants Romney, Romney would be the perfect end-around of Palin and the country at the last minute.

I think Lieberman would have been a disaster as well, but come on --Palin? A woman chosen by a bunch of misogynists to go the distance? Nope.

And, think about this -- how beautiful for the REpugs. If she opts out at the last minute imagine their delight hand-in-hand with the MSM in skewering the next female candidate of either party. Will she vet -- will she go the distance? A new political term for a disgraced VP -- Palinesque?

I just HATE this. I wish we could just have an election. I hate the lying and cheating and irrationality and right-wing Christianity.

That last sentence almost sounds like lyrics for a new country and western song. Where is the America I once knew? lyrics by lalucas...I think I need a drink, but I am three weeks tomorrow with none, so will keep it up. Cannot let the election push me over the edge, now can I? :)