Don Rich wrote an interesting post about how the broadening of the global economy could lead to greater potential for major wars. I added comments that my optimistic side hoped for continued Indian progress toward having an open, entrepreneurial economy as a complement to the US so that that free societies can continue to predominate over authoritarian ones.
Coincidently, I read this article by Gordon Chang at RealClearWorld.com. It describes the challenges India faces as China aggressively pushes for border concessions in a region where India and China fought a short war in 1962. It also describes how China's multi-decade support for Pakistan has resulted in Chinese arms being used during some of the horrific terror attacks India has endured.
More broadly, it references other articles that describe more aggressive actions that the Chinese could consider.
- This article summarizes a Chinese strategist's proposed goal of breaking India into 20-30 smaller states.
- This article summarizes an Indian military analyst's prediction that China may attack India over the disputed border by 2012.
Why would China do these things? Well...
- China wants to be the big dog in Asia.
- India, since adopting a more free market economy, is now growing stronger.
- Pakistan, China's ally who threatens India, is getting weaker and is at risk of civil war.
- China has huge demopgraphic problems coming and lots of internal dissent.
So, time may not be on China's side and anyone who has played Sid Meier's Civilization computer game knows that there are advantages to attacking early before the other guy gets stronger.
Here's the bonus: China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear powers.
For those still focused on health care...
- Consider this a pre-existing condition that we might want some insurance for.
- One potential treatment is missile defense.
- But, apparently, Obama leans toward the idea that our QARY (quality adjusted remaining years) do not justify receiving the missile defense treatment.
- And, because the US shift toward India was a Bush policy while the Clinton team favored China, speculation might be that we will not share our treatment capabilities with India. Strengthening them might allow for prevention.
Anyway, I just wanted to post on something other than healthcare.


Salon.com
Comments
In the end, national defense, national defense, national defense and then other stuff. rated
As to imagining nuclear war, it rarely pays to under-estimate the power of human beings to do horrible things. If the one article is right and the Indian army is not strong enough to repel and invasion, then tactical nukes would be a great equalizer rather than defeat. Or, if Pakistan is involved and the Indian military makes progress toward key Pakistani regions, then Pakistan could launch.
Not that it is the authority on things, but if you play Sid Meier's Civilization, there often comes a point where it is more logical to use the nukes than to not.
I wonder how the Chinese would feel about applying that logic to the Tibetans, Uigurs, etc?