McGarrett50

McGarrett50
Birthday
July 05
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I'm nobody important and there's nothing uniquely interesting about me. My blog is intended as planting a free market, conservative flag on Salon Island. I want to be a bit provocative and will attempt to present a counter-counter-culture view. The blog name is based on the idea that the 1960's should not be viewed as only a time when the young pushed change against conservative norms. The 60's were as much represented by law and order shows such as Hawaii Five O. Conservative waves continued through the 80's and into this day. Salon tends to represent the desire to overcome the conservative waves. I will playfully join the debate here to see whether I hit the beach or hit the rocks.

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AUGUST 15, 2009 2:56PM

Healthcare Debate Got You Down? Try India/China Nuke War

Rate: 2 Flag

Don Rich wrote an interesting post about how the broadening of the global economy could lead to greater potential for major wars.  I added comments that my optimistic side hoped for continued Indian progress toward having an open, entrepreneurial economy as a complement to the US so that that free societies can continue to predominate over authoritarian ones.

India-China Border DisputeCoincidently, I read this article by Gordon Chang at RealClearWorld.com.  It describes the challenges India faces as China aggressively pushes for border concessions in  a region where India and China fought a short war in 1962.  It also describes how China's multi-decade support for Pakistan has resulted in Chinese arms being used during some of the horrific terror attacks India has endured.

More broadly, it references other articles that describe more aggressive actions that the Chinese could consider.

  • This article summarizes a Chinese strategist's proposed goal of breaking India into 20-30 smaller states.
  • This article summarizes an Indian military analyst's prediction that China may attack India over the disputed border by 2012.

Why would China do these things?  Well...

  • China wants to be the big dog in Asia.
  • India, since adopting a more free market economy, is now growing stronger.
  • Pakistan, China's ally who threatens India, is getting weaker and is at risk of civil war.
  • China has huge demopgraphic problems coming and lots of internal dissent.

So, time may not be on China's side and anyone who has played Sid Meier's Civilization computer game knows that there are advantages to attacking early before the other guy gets stronger.

Here's the bonus:  China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear powers.

For those still focused on health care... 

  • Consider this a pre-existing condition that we might want some insurance for.
  • One potential treatment is missile defense.
  • But, apparently, Obama leans toward the idea that our QARY (quality adjusted remaining years) do not justify receiving the missile defense treatment.
  • And, because the US shift toward India was a Bush policy while the Clinton team favored China, speculation might be that we will not share our treatment capabilities with India.  Strengthening them might allow for prevention.

Anyway, I just wanted to post on something other than healthcare.

 

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That was interesting and a nice analogy.
In the end, national defense, national defense, national defense and then other stuff. rated
I can't imagine that either side would be insane enough to initiate a war against the other, at least not a 'real" war. A border skirmish, perhaps. But this is one area where the nuclear deterrent just might be a good thing. I don't know if it's pertinent, but it is interesting to me that the areas that China covets border Tibet and Xinjiang, two provinces whose loyalty to the Han-dominated government is suspect.
Good read. Now read my blog on hypochondria for heavens sake! THAT keeps your mind off of nuclear war!
Procopius, yes, China is grappling with a few internal issues. However, the normal attitude in history is that when you have trouble on your borders, extend your borders. It is rare that trouble on the borders results in shrinking the borders.

As to imagining nuclear war, it rarely pays to under-estimate the power of human beings to do horrible things. If the one article is right and the Indian army is not strong enough to repel and invasion, then tactical nukes would be a great equalizer rather than defeat. Or, if Pakistan is involved and the Indian military makes progress toward key Pakistani regions, then Pakistan could launch.

Not that it is the authority on things, but if you play Sid Meier's Civilization, there often comes a point where it is more logical to use the nukes than to not.
The first referenced article states that the “so-called” Indian nation cannot be considered as one having existed in history as it relies primarily on Hindu religion for unity."

I wonder how the Chinese would feel about applying that logic to the Tibetans, Uigurs, etc?