This is part 3 in what will probably be a five part series on the 2009 Mayor’s Race. Part 1 handicapped the top four candidates. Part 2 provided an update on the polls.
Today: Results!
Overall, the voters did a pretty rational job of winnowing four candidates to two. Peter Brown, the millionaire spending his own money (actually, his wife’s), came in third place with 22% and missed the run-off. This makes sense to me because he just seemed to be an empty suit and he was disingenuously trying to convince white voters that he was conservative when he is not. He spent more than $3 million so I’d hate to be him explaining to his wife where her money went.
Roy Morales, the one conservative in the race, came in fourth as expected. What is surprising is that he got 20% of the vote. Considering he had no money, no backing from the Republican Party, and minimal prior name recognition, this was good. It is probably a combination of him doing enough to get the word out that he was the only conservative… and being the only Hispanic in the race. I think that if he had had backers, he would have made the run-off.
And Then There Were Two
So, it comes down to a run-off between two liberal Democrats. Annise Parker, the openly lesbian City Controller, came in first with 31%. She has won city-wide before so there is no reason to think that she can’t win.
Gene Locke, the black wheeler-dealer lawyer, came in second with 26%. He is the insider candidate, backed by the big money including hugely popular former Mayor Bob Lanier.
My prediction right now is that Locke will use his money advantage to run commercials and will lead in the polls within a few weeks. He also strikes me as more appealing on TV than Parker. But, from what I can tell, his campaign has no real purpose other than that the city fat cats think he should be given the job. So, I see his support not being firm and he could easily fade as the election comes close just like Peter Brown went from frontrunner to third. People simply got tired of Brown’s commercials and mailers.
I think Parker wins but will revise my estimate in Part 4 after we get some polls and I see the commercials each are running.
Here’s a Houston Chronicle article about the results if you want to read more.
Today: Results!
Overall, the voters did a pretty rational job of winnowing four candidates to two. Peter Brown, the millionaire spending his own money (actually, his wife’s), came in third place with 22% and missed the run-off. This makes sense to me because he just seemed to be an empty suit and he was disingenuously trying to convince white voters that he was conservative when he is not. He spent more than $3 million so I’d hate to be him explaining to his wife where her money went.
Roy Morales, the one conservative in the race, came in fourth as expected. What is surprising is that he got 20% of the vote. Considering he had no money, no backing from the Republican Party, and minimal prior name recognition, this was good. It is probably a combination of him doing enough to get the word out that he was the only conservative… and being the only Hispanic in the race. I think that if he had had backers, he would have made the run-off.
And Then There Were Two
So, it comes down to a run-off between two liberal Democrats. Annise Parker, the openly lesbian City Controller, came in first with 31%. She has won city-wide before so there is no reason to think that she can’t win.
Gene Locke, the black wheeler-dealer lawyer, came in second with 26%. He is the insider candidate, backed by the big money including hugely popular former Mayor Bob Lanier.
My prediction right now is that Locke will use his money advantage to run commercials and will lead in the polls within a few weeks. He also strikes me as more appealing on TV than Parker. But, from what I can tell, his campaign has no real purpose other than that the city fat cats think he should be given the job. So, I see his support not being firm and he could easily fade as the election comes close just like Peter Brown went from frontrunner to third. People simply got tired of Brown’s commercials and mailers.
I think Parker wins but will revise my estimate in Part 4 after we get some polls and I see the commercials each are running.
Here’s a Houston Chronicle article about the results if you want to read more.
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