With less than a week until the run-off election, the Houston Mayor’s race is still tracking overall as I predicted (here, here, and here).  But, it is getting there in a different way than I thought.

The two remaining candidates are Annise Parker and Gene Locke, both Democrats (the election is legally non-partisan).  Some unusual things about them are that Parker is a three term Council Member and three term City Controller, but is the outsider candidate.  Gene Locke has never held elective office (he did serve as City Attorney) but is the insider candidate, backed by the powers that be around town.

I was wrong in predicting that Locke would blanket the airwaves with commercials.  My perception is he has run more ads than Parker, but it hasn’t been excessive.  It turns out that Parker has actually raised more money than Locke.

As my title describes, these Democrats are doing everything they can to sound like conservatives.  Locke is running a law and order campaign.  He brandishes his police union endorsement and accuses Parker of being soft on crime and wanting to limit spending on police.

Parker runs as a fiscal conservative looking to keep the city’s finances in order as revenues drop.  Her proposed programs almost all emphasize running the city more efficiently.  In the debate I watched earlier this week (newspaper article here), she countered Locke’s accusation by saying that 40% more money has been spent on police in the last six years but that no more officers are on the street than before.  Who knows what the facts are but it is interesting to see each try to make their points.

Initially less interesting were some minor attempts to make Parker’s sexual orientation an issue.  Locke received the endorsement of some local religious conservatives best known for running a “straight slate” for city council against gay rights back in the 1980’s.  Locke has been pressed to disavow the endorsement.  He hesitated to do so for fear of losing the endorsement but ultimately said that if anyone is endorsing him just because Parker is a lesbian then he doesn’t want the endorsement.  However, just today, the Houston Chronicle reports that some backers of Locke have made substantial donations to the anti-gay group.  This again emphasizes the insider nature of Locke’s campaign in that local money is backing him.

We finally got some poll numbers and as I expected, Parker is leading.  She has 42% to Locke’s 36%.  18% are undecided.  It’s not obvious what the remaining 4% said.  As described in the article, many people are not paying attention.  I hope they just stay home.

My final prediction: Parker wins 51.5% to 48.5%.