The World Cup is down to eight teams, which means it’s getting down to the best of the best from now on. In under two weeks’ time, we’ll have crowned a new world champion from one of the eight. It’s a group that contains four former champions (Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Uruguay), this year’s consensus favorite that’s looking for its first title (Spain), another world power looking for its first title (Netherlands), and the home continent’s torch bearers (Ghana).

A couple of quick observations before rankings for all eight teams.

— South America is still dominating. Fully half of the quarterfinal field hails from South America, and all four could still be alive in the next round. The continent finally suffered its first casualty of the tournament in the Round of 16, losing Group H runner-up Chile. But even that loss was expected, since it came to Brazil, and inevitable, since La Roja lost out to another South American team. Much like European teams dominated the 2006 World Cup in Germany with all four semifinals, the 2010 World Cup is shaping up as a South American showcase.

— There seem to be at least two distinct tiers, possibly even three. The lower tier is easy to figure out: Uruguay, Paraguay and Ghana are all fine teams, but they really can’t match up to the rest. The upper tier contains Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands — all of which are more than capable of winning the World Cup. Separating these sides might come down to a moment of luck, a moment of genius, or heaven forbid, another refereeing blunder.

But if you really want to split hairs (and I assume that’s why you’re reading), you can probably separate two more teams into an elite tier of their own. Up to this point, Argentina and Brazil have consistently played the best soccer, sweeping aside all opponents with the exception of both teams’ opening games. Since that first game — Argentina beat Nigeria just 1-0 and Brazil topped North Korea only 2-1 — both have looked very, very impressive. The bracket dictates that they can’t meet until the final, and based on form to this point, that has to be the most likely scenario.

On to the rankings, which are based on performance in the group stage and the first knock-out round, and to a lesser extent, the history of each team in the World Cup.

1. Argentina: First place in Group B; defeated Mexico 3-1 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: If you’ve seen La Albiceleste play, you already know. Lionel Messi hasn’t scored yet, but he might be the best player in the tournament. Gonzalo Higuaín might not be the third best striker on his team, but he can’t stop scoring. Diego Maradona might be the craziest person in the world, but he just keeps on winning.

The Argentines are strong across the field, with Javier Mascherano and Maxi Rodríguez leading the midfield, and Gabriel Heinze anchoring a solid defense while providing another scoring threat. They maintain possession well, play attractive, attacking football, and can even grind out a result when they need to (see the 1-0 win over Nigeria). This is a team with few weaknesses.

Why they won’t: One of those weaknesses is in central defense, where Martín Demichelis continues to get away with playing poorly. Demichelis was exposed by countryman Diego Milito (the real third best striker on Argentina’s roster behind Messi and Carlos Tevez) in the Champions League final, and he was exposed again by a talented but limited Mexican squad in the Round of 16. It’s only a matter of time before his lack of speed and poor decisions cost Argentina a goal.

Beyond Demichelis, there’s still the issue of Maradona on the sidelines. So far, he’s done everything right. But La Albiceleste might be a sideline meltdown away from defeat.

Odds to win: 2 to 1

 
1a. Brazil: First place in Group G; defeated Chile 3-0 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: They’re Brazil, and they always do. Well, at least, Brazil almost always wins the World Cup when it’s on non-European soil. Since 1970, the World Cup has been held in non-European soil five times (this is the sixth). Brazil won three of those (1970, 1994 and 2002) and finished third at another (1978). If it’s a World Cup and it’s not in Europe, there’s a good chance Brazil will win it.

But all of that is just a bunch of statistics. Brazil won all those titles by fielding extraordinarily talented teams, much like the one that’s mowing down the competition in the South African winter. The glamorous Kaká leads an impressive attack that also includes lethal goal-scorer Luis Fabiano. The unglamorous Gilberto Silva is doing the same thing he’s done for years: bossing the midfield with a no-nonsense approach. Maicon is one of the best fullbacks in the world, if not the best, while Lúcio is yet another in a long line of inspirational captains for A Seleção.

Simply put, this is probably the most talented squad in the World Cup.

Why they won’t: This is really stretching, but Brazil occasionally suffers from defensive lapses. It happened in the opening game, when North Korea scored late in the second half to make things a bit more interesting than they should have been. Likewise, against Côte d’Ivoire, the defense seemed to fall asleep momentarily after going up 3-0, allowing Didier Drogba to give Les Éléphants a glimmer of hope with a goal in the 79th minute. That game also saw Brazil lose its composure somewhat, though Kaká’s red card was totally unjustified. If Brazil fails to win the World Cup, one of those two things might play a factor.

Odds to win: 5 to 2

3. Spain: First place in Group H; defeated Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: Spain plays the best passing game of any team in the world. The midfield is so good that No. 10 Cesc Fabregas, probably the best midfielder in the English Premier League, can’t get a game. David Villa has a good chance to be the tournament’s top scorer. Beating Portugal was an underrated feat, since it was an Iberian derby. The memory of the 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Swiss is fading into oblivion. Winning Euro 2008 was a big confidence builder.

Why they won’t: They’ve been this good before and failed to do so. Spain has never won a World Cup, which is somewhat surprising if you consider the strength of La Liga and the quality of players constantly in the national team. But on the World Cup stage, Spain has flattered to deceive on several occasions. The nation’s best finish was fourth place in 1950, and it has never been past the quarterfinals (three previous appearance before this year) since then. For some reason, Spain just can’t put it all together on the world’s biggest stage.

Odds to win: 4 to 1

4. Germany: First place in Group D; defeated England 4-1 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: They’re Germany, and nobody does more with less than Germany at the World Cup. Four years ago, Jürgen Klinsmann led a rag-tag team all the way to the semifinals on home soil despite dire pre-tournament predictions from all quarters. Eight years ago, it was a pretty similar scene as Germany advanced to the final despite being knocked out of Euros in the group stage two years previous. As I’ve written before, A World Cup final without Germany is almost like a gubernatorial campaign in Alabama without xenophobia. It doesn’t happen often.

This time around, Germany has a team that efficiently mixes youth and experience. Thomas Müller, a 20-year-old striker, already has three goals (his first for his country), and Mesut Özil, 21, is primed to become the best young player of the tournament. Veterans Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski are doing what they always do: scoring for Germany despite not playing particularly well for their clubs.

Against England, Germany showed it has perhaps the best counter-attack in the tournament. If the defense holds up, this team will be tough to beat.

Why they won’t: The Germans got beat by Serbia in their second game precisely because the defense didn’t hold up for one very short amount of time. Soon after Klose was sent off for a ridiculous second yellow card, the Serbs caught the German defense out and scored with a nice cross and header. Teams often live and die by the counter-attack because it can be so devastating to opponents. But it can also prove costly sometimes.

Odds to win: 5 to 1

5. Netherlands: First place in Group E; defeated Slovakia 2-1 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: This might be the best Dutch squad since the Total Football revolution of the 1970s. Wesley Sneijder is among the world’s best wingers, while Arjen Robben, Dirk Kuyt (please, ESPN, it’s pronounced “Kite,” not “Kout”) and Robin van Persie round out a strong offense. Mark van Bommel is an ideal midfield destroyer (some might say thug), and Maarten Stekelenburg has been a revelation (at least to me) in goal after the international retirement of Edwin van der Sar.

Why they won’t: Much like Spain, the Netherlands has a long history of underachieving at the World Cup. By most accounts, the Dutch had the best team in the world in 1974, but arrogance led to a defeat at the hands of West Germany in the final. Four years later, the Netherlands lost out in the final to the hosts once again, losing to first-time winner Argentina. The Oranje have had more talented teams before that didn’t win the title.

This year, despite some reports to the contrary, the Dutch still seem to have internal chemistry issues. After being substituted against Slovakia, van Persie was clearly upset on the sidelines. Van Persie has been seen as a bit of a prima donna in the past, so it’s up to the Dutch coaching staff to sort out this latest outburst before it damages the Oranje’s chances.

Besides that, the Dutch have to face Brazil in the quarterfinals. They haven’t looked particularly great during the tournament, so they’ll have to find a new gear if they want to pull the upset.

Odds to win: 8 to 1

6. Uruguay: First place in Group A; defeated South Korea 2-1 in the Round of 16

Why they’ll win it all: Uruguay was a popular dark-horse pick before the tournament, and that prediction is turning out to be accurate. With a favorable draw, Uruguay has a clear path to the semifinals. Once they get there, the Uruguayans will probably face Brazil, a team they’ve upset in the World Cup before.

Why they won’t: Uruguay was a popular choice to be a dark horse, but probably not to win it all. Strikers Diego Forlán and Luis Suárez form a great partnerships, and the team has allowed only one goal to this point, but winning it all is probably beyond their reach.

Odds to win: 15 to 1

7. Ghana: Second place in Group D; defeated USA 2-1 a.e.t. in the Round of 16.

Why they’ll win it all: The whole continent is behind Ghana, which recognized that fact and played well against the US. Kevin-Prince Boateng is a real star.

Why they won’t: Not enough talent all around the field. Plus, I’m still bitter.

Odds to win: 20 to 1

8. Paraguay: First place in Group F; defeated Japan 5-3 on penalties after a scoreless draw over 120 minutes of action.

Why they’ll win it: Defense. Paraguay has allowed only one goal in South Africa, and that came in the team’s opener against Italy. Since then, it’s been three straight clean sheets, including extra time against Japan.

Why they won’t: Spain is in the way, and then either Argentina or Germany. In other words, there are a lot of better teams left in the tournament. The run to the quarterfinals is the best ever for Paraguay, but it probably won’t go any further.

Odds to win: 25 to 1

Fearless predictions:

Argentina 2-1 Germany, extra time

Brazil 2-1 Netherlands

Uruguay 1-0 Ghana

Spain 2-0 Paraguay