Oscar frenzy season finally ends Sunday.  No more screeners, special Oscar screenings, full page promotional ads, or CD and screenplay mailings to Academy voters and critics.  It also marks the end of the standard two-month studio junk movie releases for mainstream multi-plex patrons.

After four months of promoting and pimping their most promising prospects, film distributors can sit back with the rest of us to prognosticate and pull for favorites. It doesn't require rocket science to reasonably predict the top prizes; upsets occur far less frequently than for college basketball's March Madness. Numerous "preliminary" awards identify front runners for the major categories; it'll just require actually viewing nominated films to more accurately guess obscure category and foreign language film winners.

Based on "preliminary" award results, the races for Oscar 2011  look reasonably straight-forward. Early returns marked The Social Network as the dominant odds on favorite, but a late stretch run by The King's Speech has added dramatic tension to the race. Speculation about the nature of the Academy voters will fill air time--has 21st century thinking modernized them or do they tend to love more traditional classical offerings? Given the convoluted weighted balloting system, the final tally is certain to be extremely close. But be assured that articles will analyze the nature of the voting Academy, based on the winning outcome.

You can also confidently wager that the show's length will be over the time limit--and bet even more that every late night TV host will make  jokes about it. The biggest "drama" will come from watching how James Franco and Anne Hathaway handle their hosting duties to see if they can liven up  the traditionally mundane ceremonies. Without Bob Hope or Billy Crystal to rely on, the Academy has experimented the past several years... but the unusual Franco/Hathaway pairing should not belly flop like Letterman. Establishing low expectations has merit. 

Results should remain reasonably predictable, yet the voting Academy springs at least one surprise each year destined to become a major side story in the inevitable post-mortems. Don't expect that shocker to come from Animated Features; Pixar never loses. My picks are summarized at the very bottom--be warned: I've never been 100% correct.

Acting awards go to the most overtly outrageous roles... subtlety be damned. Even though Academy actors vote within their own profession (and publicly praise nuanced acting), they continue to recognize more flamboyant roles or nominate actors portraying real life people. History and sentiment also come into play, giving highly regarded (but Oscar snubbed) actors a significant advantage. That boosted Jeff Bridges to his first Oscar victory last year, and should do the same for Colin Firth in 2011 (especially since his acting in A Single Man was deserving last year--reference Liz Taylor and her Butterfield 8 win). 

The Screen Actors Guild is the most reliable source for the acting awards, so the smart money is on all their final winners. The same quartet has been dominating most of the other bell-weather awards as well, so the surest bets for major Oscars lie with three of the acting awards--the only real contest comes in the Supporting Actress category. Melissa Leo has been cleaning up throughout the preliminary award circuit, but this category often sports the biggest surprises--Lauren Bacall's upset loss to Juliette Binoche instantly comes to mind. Add visions of Tatum O'Neal (Paper Moon) and Anna Paquin (The Piano) as reminders that the Academy does shower love on child actors, setting the stage for True Grit's real protagonist to snatch the award from The Fighter's duelling supporting actresses.

Screenwriting  Oscars generally do not prompt critical outrage, so worthy independent features frequently gain recognition in this less glamorous category. Since writers are voting within their expertise, the results don't spark controversy.  The odds for quality scripts winning the top prize are light years ahead of more "mainstream" categories. Writers Guild Award winners usually get Oscar gold, so director-writer Christopher Nolan (Inception) and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) should receive their due--Nolan for his inventive and complexly structured universe and Sorkin for the fast-paced wit that peppers his tightly constructed narrative.

Note: Put Sorkin in the same "certain lock" category as Pixar, Colin Firth, and Natalie Portman. His blatantly brilliant screenplay has swept through the award season unscathed and won universal acclaim. It sets an extremely high standard against which all future screenplays will be compared.

Although Best Picture and Best Director often go to the same project, this could be another year where they split.  While The Social Network swept the top prizes in the early part of the season, The King's Speech has won the recent awards to provide "buzz" momentum going into the Academy voting periods. Neither film has so much love going for it to ensure a sweep, so that could translate into a split decision. Give a slight edge on the Directing side to David Fincher for more network connections with voters than British director Tom Hooper along with the perception that The King's Speech is bigger actor's vehicle than The Social Network. Besides, any voter who watched the supplemental DVD features on the latter would have to be impressed with the complexity of the project and be influenced by the universal praise heaped onto its director.

The  most interesting category is Documentary feature, especially since popular "mainstream" choice (Waiting for Superman) didn't even reach the finals. Kudos to the Academy for recognizing that this American education system expose was neither original nor illuminating.  The Academy prides itself for promoting social causes, so it would be no surprise to see Oscar honors for any of four films that range from embedded coverage of the Afghanistan war, to artful recycling, to uncovering corporate corruption in energy and financial sectors.

I'll be strongly rooting for the fifth--arguably the most creative and quirky of all the films released this past year.  A Best Documentary victory could inspire a historical Oscar moment if street artist Banksy applies his craft for the presentation. That would elevate an  ordinary show into the profound.

Best Film

• Money bet: The Social Network
• My bet: The King's Speech
• My vote: 127 Hours

 Best Actor

• Money bet: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
• My bet: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
• My vote: James Franco (127 Hours)

 Best Actress

• Money bet: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
• My bet: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
• My vote: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

Best Supporting Actor

• Money bet: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
• My bet: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
• My vote: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress

• Money bet: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
• My bet: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
• My vote: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Best Director

• Money bet: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
• My bet: David Fincher (The Social Network)
• My vote: David Fincher (The Social Network)

 Best Original Screenplay

• Money bet: David Seider (The King's Speech)
• My bet: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
• My vote: Christopher Nolan (Inception)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Money bet: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
• My bet: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
• My vote: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

Best Cinematography

• Money bet: Wally Pfister (Inception)
• My bet: Wally Pfister (Inception)
• My vote: Wally Pfister (Inception)

 Note: American Cinematographers rewarded Inception with its top award. Had the film not been significantly creative, this might have been the year for a "career" reward Oscar for Roger Deakins (True Grit), who amazingly has never won despite 9 nominations.

Best Animated Feature

• Money bet: Toy Story 3
• My bet: Toy Story 3
• My vote: Toy Story 3

 Best Foreign Language Feature

• Money bet: In a Better World (Denmark)
• My bet: In a Better World (Denmark)
• My vote: Biutiful (Mexico)

 Note: I've only seen the Mexican feature, but if I had to bet on the winner, I'd go with the Golden Globe winner. Besides, the Danish entry is set in the Middle East, so recent events will boost its chances even more.

Best Documentary Feature

• Money bet: Inside Job
• My bet: Restrepo
• My vote: Exit Through the Gift Shop