If its individual citizens, to a man, are to be believed, it [the United States] always is depressed, and always is stagnated, and always is at an alarming crisis, and never was otherwise - Charles Dickens, 1843
After years of bloody and unnecessary war, the United States is in terminal decline. Amid growing concerns about the price and availability of oil, and a huge loss in international prestige resulting from ill-considered military adventures, a new rival is looming in Asia, threatening to replace our nation as the world's economic powerhouse. Our society is deeply divided. Our economy is faltering. Optimism has been replaced with pessimism and self-doubt, the morale of our citizenry is at a nadir, faith in the government and the very underpinnings of our republic is disappearing, and hope for a better tomorrow has been supplanted by fear of what the future may bring.
Yikes! Sounds pretty much like the end, doesn't it?
Except...
The above paragraph, which one could take to be about our situation in 2011, is actually a description of the national zeitgeist back in the bad old '70s. Remember?
I was just a kid in those days and not that politically aware, but I read a lot, especially science fiction. I devoured every sci-fi novel or magazine which came my way, and a common theme in the genre at the time was that we were pretty much washed up as a nation and a society. Cyberpunk hadn't been invented yet, but its precursors foresaw a dark, dystopian future wherein, due to irresistible global forces and our own horrible mistakes, things had come badly apart at the seams. Americans were often portrayed as living miserable lives in the decayed wreckage of our once great empire, the smarter ones having hitched their wagons to the now-ascendant Japanese colossus and the rest left to their own wretched devices.
As we all know, that scary future didn't happen. The reasons it didn't are many and complex, but the central one is that things just weren't as bad as they seemed.
In the 21st century we live in a similar era of dismay and doubt. Much of it is justified; a polarized and dysfunctional political system, stagnant wages, growing income disparity and a major recession are all legitimate causes for concern. But as so often happens, we're making things out to be worse than they really are.
A recent poll shows that two thirds of us believe our country is in decline, and that nearly half think China is the world's largest economy, while only one in five think the U.S. is. The former belief may have some truth to it, but the latter is nonsense. While China's rise is impressive, and will likely affect world events for decades to come, it's important to not let unwarranted apprehension color our view of ourselves and the world. Our economy, troubled as it is, remains three times the size of China's, and while many no doubt wish it weren't so, our power, economic and military, will remain unrivalled for some time to come. A multi-polar world is emerging after an unprecedented period of unipolar American hegemony, but that needn't be a bad thing, and anyway our nearest competitors are still a long way from overtaking us. The Chinese GNP will probably surpass America's in a couple decades, but even after that happens their per capita GDP will remain a fraction of ours. It's worth noting, too, that the projections about China's future growth could prove overly optimistic, just as the predictions about Japan's inevitable rise to dominance proved unfounded.
So why all the fear? Much of it comes from a tendency people have to see things as a zero-sum game. Too many of us believe that if others rise, by definition we must fall, and that if there is more wealth being generated in places like China and India and Brazil it must be happening at our expense. The world, fortunately, is more complex than that, and while worst-case scenarios make for good copy, they are by no means inevitable.
I'm not trying here to make things seem rosier than they are. We face plenty of challenges, and to downplay them is no more productive than exaggerating them. Our government is controlled by plutocrats who have transitioned from merely gaming the system to gutting it for the sake of massive, short term profits. That is unsustainable. In 2010, unremarked by many, China's industrial output matched and then surpassed our own. Worse, though we still maintain a strong lead in higher education, the sciences, and general innovation, there are signs that our edge in critical technologies is slipping. Five years ago the Chinese were barely even players in the market for solar panels, yet last year they accounted for over half of world production. There are plenty of other examples of how, distracted by economic difficulties and parasitized by a corporate sector which has no sense of loyalty to the nation that created it, we are dropping the ball. If we aren't going to subside into global irrelevance these things must change.
We are faced with some critical decisions in the near future, and it's not guaranteed we'll make the right ones. By the same token, it isn't written in stone we'll make the wrong ones, and living in a permanent atmosphere of despair and crisis in the meantime seems a little silly. Though our perennial Cassandras would have us believe the fat lady has already finished singing, I'm not laying in a supply of canned goods and trading my dollars for Renminbi quite yet.
TIP:
Enter the amount, and click "Tip" to submit!
ccdarling
elegant mistake
DiBi
l'Heure Bleue
scottcvoss
Sirenita Lake
Salon.com
Comments
When asked if China was the next superpower, they all looked at each other until one brave girl spoke up and said "That's an American word. We don't think that way."
She said that Americans have this vision of an American soldier walking the streets of Baghdad as the great liberator, expecting the Iraqi's to kiss our feet for bringing them democracy when, in fact, democracy is an American value that not everyone shares.
For the Chinese, democracy isn't even a realistic dream and they recognize that they have many problems but that they must work with their existing government to solve them. Democracy is a non-issue.
We need to get over ourselves as the arbiter of all things great and get on with solving our own problems. Are we still No. 1? No. 2? A superpower or not? Who cares? We have issues, let's get to work on them and stop congratulating ourselves for being God's chosen.
Pretty easy to see what is going on.
rated with hugs
i have always thought of this country as a teenager. loud, impulsive and not always the maker of good decisions. historically, we sort of are a teenager. we dont have the long histories as a country that other nations do, so as a country we are still immature. i might be being generous by calling us a teenager...we might be more like a toddler, so add self-centered to the list.
the thing is, i dont worry so much, because like teenagers (and toddlers) this country always seems to rise to the occasion when backed against a wall. of course, we do tend to wait till we ARE firmly pressed to the wall...but ya know *eyeroll* teenagers...
The question becomes, will we wake up in time to pick up the pieces or fall with them?
As long as we spend 50+% of the world's total military spending, it will be impossible.
Major, we've earned that whole "Americans have this vision of an American soldier walking the streets of Baghdad as the great liberator, expecting the Iraqi's to kiss our feet for bringing them democracy" thing. Still, there's a lot more to this country than just the invasion of Iraq, or even than the sum total of all the shitty things we've done. Also, I'm willing to bet there are plenty of Chinese who do think democracy, or at least the hope for it, is a value they share with us.
Jeanette, that's pretty much it. Plus ça change plus c'est la même chose all over again.
Julie, I love when someone uses my links!
Linda, is it the Belgians?
Lorianne, that's a perfect description for us. Whenever the world looks at us disapprovingly we're all, like, "But Mom!"
Fred, it's just unfortunate that, as a side effect of spending as much on *defense* as the rest of the world combined, the only sector of American manufacturing which is still thriving is the armaments industry. Bombs = $.
The problem isn't China, it's us. (The problem WAS Japan, at least in part, because they attacked us economically in ways that most people still aren't aware of.) We still aren't addressing income polarization, which will be necessary if we're going to see growth and prosperity in the long run. We also, of course, have pretty serious educational issues. We're not dead yet but we have work to do.
Chuck, there is a cyclical nature to some aspects of history, though there's also, in some ways, sort of an S curve to it. I'm afraid that, with global warming consistently and pointedly ignored as an existential threat by our ruling elites, we may be looking at the end of this particular cycle, to all the cycles in fact which come after the hunter-gatherer stage of development.
Duane, thanks! (laconic is good, i like laconic)
Hi, High (i never tire of saying that!). Yeah, something many people aren't aware of is that China's rise wouldn't even be taking place if not for us. It's in our interests to see other nations succeed and for millions of people to be lifted out of poverty, but we don't need to give away the farm for it to happen. The Chinese recently rolled out a stealth fighter-bomber which, I'm certain, is chock full of hardware and software that shouldn't have been transferred and wouldn't have been if a lot of American companies hadn't made money on it.
Julie, exactly! We're phonin' in our dystopia when we need to be honin' our utopia. :(
But as far as people living "miserable lives in decayed wreckage" you've actually described the way a lot of Chinese live. China's grown too fast, too quickly. In some ways it's still a third world country. Their environment is a disaster. That's scary, and not just for them; it has global ramifications. Some cities are so polluted they don't even get sunlight. Unsafe drinking water is a huge problem as is poverty; the wealth hasn't exactly trickled down. Also I heard something recently about the illegal organ trafficking that goes on over there. The political system is highly corrupt. Then there's that pesky problem of human rights abuses. China's got a lot of problems that it's not equipped to deal with. That scares me more than their powerhouse economy.
I don't worry that the U.S. is going to subside into global irrelevance any time soon although I hope soon we can throw off this malaise and bad feelings about ourselves and get back on track. The best minds and opportunities are still here. You never hear about anyone wanting to emigrate to China; everyone still wants to come here.
The scary science fiction future you read about applies more to China than the U.S., so I definitely wouldn't trade my dollars for Renminbi (although a Renminbi sounds like a cool luxury car so maybe I would).
Yet maybe the influx of the western "fast food nation" culture will destroy them first... in other words, maybe death by MacDonald's will get them before they "wake-up."
So I suppose my answer would be that while the times and circumstances change, the underlying existential angst goes on. Still, we all muddled through then and will now.
!Julie, I'm not even! sure anymore!!!@@!
Scarlett, with a little luck the influx of fast food will undermine their health as effectively as its undermining ours. To paraphrase Clausewitz, War by Big Mac is not an independent phenomenon, but merely the continuation of politics by different means.
Boan, muddling through seems to be a perennial feature of the human condition. I'd like to think the current round of muddling isn't the final 0ne, though as I said to Chuck the whole global warming thing may be a game changer.
That is especially true if we stay optimistic.
The China Syndrome; Eastern Promises; Bad Sun Rising?; When The Tiger Roars, Will We Be Listening; The Bully In the China Shop; and my favorite, Brave New World (but written in Chinese characters - clever, no?) (If there's a prize, I prefer American dollars, not renminbi.)
Thank you Trilogy, but bear in mind there will be a quiz later. :D
Stellaa, the meta poo is getting hip deep around here. It's a little nauseating. Re: China, your comment comes at the topic from an angle I hadn't considered while writing this post. That's why you rock, and why I post in OS.
Don, "America is doomed de jeure" is now my new favorite phrase!
Those are excellent suggestions Margaret, and I wouldn't think of insulting you by offering Renminbi in compensation. Will Confederate dollars work for you? The thing is, I've converted all my greenbacks to Krugerrands and PayPal won't accept gold coins.
Bob, there's no denying it; America isn't dead yet but it IS starting to give off a nasty stench. This post is a combination of genuine belief that there are no fore-ordained outcomes and me listening one too many times to "Three Little Birds."
China, however, is in precarious position. Of course we get to see and hear the star students who are the tip of a glittering iceberg of people. But hidden are the massive numbers of Chinese who are not so fortunate.
China is dependent upon the products of our freedoms and free thinking. The country has stolen trillions in intellectual property, patents and copyrights. The society is bound by a system that is more about stealing intellectual property and copying it than about innovating or thinking on their own to solve problems. There is far too much of a culture of conformity, control and oppression to allow the loose cannons and pioneers to flourish. Finally, the joint is turning into one big and dead desert because China, even in this day and age, arrogantly ignored even the most basic lessions about overgrazing and denuding land by too much timber harvesting. This may lead to China worrying more about where to put the refugees than when to collect their money from us.
We are rednecks and street jokers who are more obsessed with race and gender than about birthright and a person's naming convention or caste. We come up with things that no one else on the planet will think about.
There will be surprises and there will be survival...of the fittest. And the fittest are not the ones who think that it is all for themselves, nor are the fittest the ones who we are told to believe in.
Great zumapickable post! Well done, N.
Recognizing that we're in deep doo-doo is one thing. Determining what ought to be done about the situation is quite another. Then actually getting going at getting things back on track is still another. But this chain can't even get started when you have a fair number of people who don't acknowledge that the problems are more deep seated than merely "the wrong guys are in/want to be in, power".
I have see few who can't make a decent list of problems in a few short minutes. I see few also who have anything realistic in the way of methods of solving those problems - not just short term, but permanently.
"We've muddled through before and we'll muddle through again" is not going to cut it this time. And it should not. It should require something more serious than another blind luck "muddling through". It should require serious thinking about what you want this system to do for the citizens. Just "being free to be happy" when you can is a pretty adolescent attitude. Sure it's nice to be happy but so far it hasn't stopped some really nasty individuals from getting control of the economic system and the political one too.
It's time to plan out what the economic, political, and social systems need to look like and what we can expect them to do for all citizens. This crap of competition to the death over every scrap of bread is nonsense. So is the silly socialist paradise that some advocate. But working without a plan may very well leave only those options.
Solutions are desperately needed. Not just teeny-weeny band-aid solutions to various parts of the problem. A whole new vision of what America is capable of being and how it can get there.
Whining about "being in the ditch" doesn't do a damn thing toward getting out of it. Setting a goal and working toward it will.
.
We sat there in our past, our bean bag couch, in our rec room with the orange shag carpeting, and we thought, JESUS CHRIST THE RUSSIANS COULD INVADE AT ANY TIME!!!
Now, it is the future, the nearest thing we have to a flying car is a model from the dime store, if we want to see Mars up close and personal, we have to go to www.nasa.gov and look at the satellite photos there.
The future sucks. There's still fears but now instead of Russians, we expect the Chinese(actually my grandfater said in 1960s that the Chinese should be the ones we watch, not the Russians!) to come in and take over.
But would they want to.
I wouldn't want this country right now. Be like taking over a roach motel that's on fire.
If you wait for the fire to burn down the roach motel, you can come in, sweep up the land for the cheeps, and wha-la! United States of China or Iran.
~shrug~
Rated.
Yep. Didn't what'shisname Santayana, say something about those who can't remember the past being doomed to repeat it? I realize we've made a lot of mistakes of our own, and still are, but the Chinese seem determined to repeat them on a scale and in a hyper-compressed time frame which guarantees catastrophe.
Sky, if what you took away from this is post is that I'm whistling past the graveyard, you completely misunderstood what I was saying here. You said in your comment:
"Whining about "being in the ditch" doesn't do a damn thing toward getting out of it. Setting a goal and working toward it will."
That was exactly my point, though I guess it wasn't clear enough, or maybe you missed it on purpose so you'd be able to sermonize.
Gramps was a cool bastard, I've been told. He fought in WWI for the United States(originally he was British, but something happened with him and his family, and he moved to the states and further pissed them off when he fought for the U.S. instead of coming home and fighting on the Brits side!) and he tried to fight in WWII but they told him he was too old which he replied, "Sending in the kids when you got trained and seasoned fighting men is stupid!!! LET ME AT THAT HITLER FELLA!!!!"
I never got to meet him, he died a few years before I was born. But I heard I inherited his something, temper when I get drunk and beat up the wall!!!
Wall had it coming!!
I think what scares me most isn't the foreign dumbasses taking us over but the dumbasses we have up in Washington DC representing us.
They could mess up a wet dream without even trying. Both sides are beyond scary. I've tried to watch them on the CSPAN but it's like watching old people fuck, you know you shouldn't, but you do anyways!!
When it comes to state visits the devil is in the detail. It's the nuances of the arrangements that allow you to calibrate just how important a relationship is. That's why the world has been watching the visit of the Chinese President Hu Jintao with such attention. The state dinner at the White House - described as an "intimate" event - apparently signifies that Washington rates China as pretty much the most important nation, economically, on earth. But the visit has also prompted much speculation in the press about how long the Chinese economic miracle can last and whether it is about to come to a juddering halt. Jim Rogers, the legendary investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has moved his family to Singapore and is making sure his two young daughters can speak Mandarin. He spoke to the Business Daily's Justin Rowlatt.
Transcript is below
Jim Rogers: The largest creditor nations in the world are in Asia now: China, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong. This is where the assets are. You know who the debtors are and where they are.
Justin Rowlatt: But listen, I mean the Chinese economy is still way behind the American economy is and it is about the third the size of the American economy.
Jim Rogers: Yes, of course. They had a disaster for 300 years, but about 30 years ago, they woke up, they changed their minds and they said we got to try something new. They unleashed entrepreneurship and capitalism again, and they have been astonishing for 30 years. It takes a while to go from a disaster to rival the Americans, but they are on their way.
Justin Rowlatt: Do you really believe the Chinese boom can continue, because lots of people are saying there are all sorts of asset price bubbles that are going to trip the Chinese up in the coming years?
Jim Rogers: Well, the only asset bubble I see potentially in China is in urban coastal real estate, but real estate is not nearly the entire Chinese economy as it was in America and the U.K. Sure, they will have setbacks.
Justin, in the 19th Century, America had a horrible civil war. We had 15 depressions with a 'D.' We had very few human rights. We had massacres in the streets regularly. We had very little rule of law. You could buy and sell - you can still buy and sell congressmen in America, but in those days they were cheap. America had horrible problems, but they came out of that and had a pretty good 20th Century.
Justin Rowlatt: So what does that imply about where people should put their money; where are the sensible investments in Asia?
Jim Rogers: Well, the best way to invest in Asia in my view is to buy commodities, because the Chinese have to buy cotton, they have to buy zinc, they have to buy oil, they have to buy natural resources because they don't have enough.
If you want to invest in China and you own cotton, they are going to be very nice to you Justin. They are going to pay the bills, they are going to take you to dinner, they are going to pay you on time. If you want to invest in stocks, you have to do a lot of homework and know what you are doing. Another way is to invest in the currency. I own the renminbi. I expect the renminbi to go up a great deal over the next decade.
Justin Rowlatt: But commodities are already at relatively high prices, aren't they? I mean hasn't that horse bolted already?
Jim Rogers: No, no, the only commodity I know which is making an all time high is gold. Some commodities are up, yes. Sugar is up a lot, but Justin, sugar is still 50% below its all time high. How can you say that's bolted? Silver is going up, but silver is 40% below its all time high. Yes, commodities have been going up recently, but they are still extremely depressed on a historic basis.
Justin Rowlatt: So what about oil? I mean oil prices are pretty high, aren't they? Almost $100 a barrel. Are they really going to go higher do you think?
Jim Rogers: Well, the surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes, because Justin we have had no major elephant oil discoveries in over 40 years. The International Energy Agency is going around the world pleading with people to listen. Known reserves of oil are declining. It is not good news. Unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly, prices are going to go much higher over the next decade.
Justin Rowlatt: How high do you think the oil price could go then?
Jim Rogers: Justin, the price of oil is going to make new highs. It will go over $150 a barrel. It will probably go over $200 a barrel.
Justin Rowlatt: Over $200 a barrel? I mean that's a world record high, isn't it?
Jim Rogers: Of course it is, but Justin, the world is running out of known reserves of oil. Maybe there is a lot of oil in the world, but if there is, we don't know where it is or how to get to it.
Justin Rowlatt: You got the pre-salt deposits off the coast of Brazil, there is Arctic oil, I mean there are big reserves of oil yet to be tapped, aren't there?
Jim Rogers: Justin, those reserves off the coast of Brazil are wonderful if you own them, but even the wildest and most optimistic estimates would only add one year's reserves to the world. The world is using 86 million barrels of oil everyday Justin. Even if it stays static or goes down a little bit, those finds off Brazil will make somebody rich, but they are not going to solve the world's problems. And, if you know of a lot of oil in the Arctic, please tell us where it is, but it is going to be very difficult to get it out of there.
Justin Rowlatt: What other things should people be looking out for do you think Jim?
Jim Rogers: Well, there are many parts of the world economy which are going to do well no matter what happens. Chinese agriculture is going to boom because Mao Zedong ruined agriculture in China and now they are spending huge amounts of money trying to solve the problem.
Water is going to be a great growth industry, because India has a huge water problem, China does, America does. Many places have big water problems, so huge fortunes will be made in water in the future.
Chinese tourism is going to boom. They have not been able to travel for about 300 years. Now they can get passports easily. They can take money out of the country. And Justin, there are 1 billion 300 million of them. They want to see their own country and they want to see the world. It is going to be a great growth industry.
Justin Rowlatt: You said that obviously there are going to be issues for water for countries like China and India in the future. How would you make money out of the kind of water demand that there is in many developing countries?
Jim Rogers: Well Justin, countries can survive civil war, epidemics, all sorts of things, but one thing the countries cannot survive is that they run out of water. China has a terrible water problem in the north as does India, which has an even worse problem. So if you can figure out a way to transport it, pump it, clean it, whatever you got to do, you will make a lot of money in water.
I would not suggest you own water, because if you own water, when things get really bad, the politicians will sneer and say, "You filthy horrible capitalist, you are making money off people's God given right to water." And if you are lucky, they will hang you in the city square. But if you can solve the water problems, they will build a monument to you in the city square and you will be extremely rich.
(amazing how it applies to economics, too)
what's wrong with "Sung"? Somehow, to me it conveys the feeling of having been uttered before. But, what do I know? I sure as hell don't know economics.
"I've tried to watch them on the CSPAN but it's like watching old people fuck, you know you shouldn't, but you do anyways"
I KNOW, right!!???!!
If YOU run for king of OS I will personally murder anyone who tries to stop you. Metaphorically of course, because real murder is wrong.
Mark, thank you for coming by. It will take me a minute or two to read your comment, but I'll do it immediately after I eat this can of Hormel tamales I just heated up. They're gross but they keep me from dying.
OOops, I mean,
BUY COTTON!!! BUY WATER!! BUY SLAVE LABOR CHEAP!!
:)
Enjoy yourself! While you're still in the pink.
The years go by, as quickly as a wink.
Enjoy yourself! Enjoy yourself! It's later than you think.
Good post. Thank you.
~nodding~ Yeah, real murder is bad!! So is having sex with your cousin, though I didn't get told that till AFTER the baby was born!!
Gawd, you'd think this stuff would be in a handbook or something.
Sheesh.
But it's all good, the other day, I put in for a job at the unemployment office!
I know, something like that is like a spammer spamming a spammer!! Hole in the fabric of reality!!
So I'll just slip back in time, leave a GOOD condom on the dresser and everything will be good!!
What were we talking about?
Oh yeah, China.
You know my stance,
REMEMBER, SUPPORT AMERICA, BUY CHINESE!!!
Viva La Revolution!!!
**Wanders off for some cheap Canadian beer**
Good to read the optimistic tone in your post.
I do think you have to go to China, travel China, to understand China.
It doesn't translate well.
Intellectual property theft is what happens when your intellect is left unguarded, or not encouraged by your own government.
China hasn't remained a continuous culture for 3500 years by sitting around waiting for people like Marco Polo to show up.
The reason they have the solar market by the balls is down to Wu Xi ( from memory ) who did his Phd right here in Aus but couldn't get funding from our government so took it back to China and started Suntech - the closest thing to oil or natural gas we're likely to see, because the Chinese gave him a better deal than anyone else on the planet.
I think right now we're all about saving our own asses from the the fire. Yours being the economy it is, needs war. China's ass is in the environmental fire, as zuma points out. Their solutions will be to the advantage of us all.
Your interest payments are funding a lot of that research. I share your optimism - as a species, humans are fundamentally ( oops, maybe ill-chosen, but I hope you get my drift ) good.
( Including Chinese ;-)
Also, since the student massacre, we've seen a quiet, inevitable but of course to our eyes frustratingly slow transition - a generation educated in Harvard, Oxford, Sydney are beginning to replace the old, just as the middle class in Shanghai & Beijing etc expands, absorbing the rural poor - again, gradually, but irrevocably.
Bear in mind that most of those solar panels, most of that industrial output, is being absorbed by China itself - they constitute 1/4 of the world's population after all.
Or a nice Italian dinner, extra garlic.
Now, I'm hungry.
Damn you General Brady!! ~boohoohoo~
~wanders off stage~
"Brains, BRAAAIINNNS, I need to eat your brains for the Open Society Institute!"
Vanessa, I'm not sure why "sung" bothered me so much. I kept wanting to write it "sang"even though I theoretically know better. Then again, when I was younger I pronounced "wash cloth" as "worsh cloth." Please don't tell anyone.
Odette, this one's for you:
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you're chewing on life's gristle
Don't grumble, give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best...
And...always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the light side of life...
If life seems jolly rotten
There's something you've forgotten
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps
Don't be silly chumps
Just purse your lips and whistle - that's the thing.
And...always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the light side of life...
For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin - give the audience a grin
Enjoy it - it's your last chance anyhow.
So always look on the bright side of death
Just before you draw your terminal breath
Life's a piece of shit
When you look at it
Life's a laugh and death's a joke, it's true.
You'll see it's all a show
Keep 'em laughing as you go
Just remember that the last laugh is on you.
And always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the right side of life...
(Come on guys, cheer up!)
Always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the bright side of life...
(Worse things happen at sea, you know.)
Always look on the bright side of life...
(I mean - what have you got to lose?)
(You know, you come from nothing - you're going back to nothing.
What have you lost? Nothing!)
Always look on the right side of life...
Back in a minute, a cat is in my tamales. And no, that's not a euphemism for masturbation.
Tink, your stance is a matter of public record. You unfocus your eyes, stiffen y0ur legs, raise your tail high and let go with a squirt. It's a very moving thing to observe.
Margaret, I was in the moment, the new title practically typed itself. :( You can keep the magic beans but I'll need a receipt and a four leaf clover.
Myriad, nooooo, this post is about how uplifting the future can be if we ditch the stupid despair and stuff!
Kim, it'll take me a minute or three to reply to your very thoughtful comment.
There's no 'Dillnard!' or the clever, 'ANDY DEZ IS A WHORE!' or 'BOB WILLIAMS SUCKS PETER!'
The new rules are '15 REASONS WHY YOU SUCK ASS....#1: YOU WRITE ABOUT CHINA WHEN YOU REALLY WANT TO WRITE ABOUT THE CANDIRU CATFISH AND ITS EFFECT ON SOUTH AMERICAN POLITICS!!!!'
I believe the 'Peter Fish' has had a wide range effect on South American politics as seen in Brazil of the early 1930s which cascaded down through out the 1940s and even into the pre-dawn months of the 1990s.
Just recently, Manuel Sanchez stated he was approached by what he believed to be a 'Peter Fish' as recently as December 7th, 2010 with bribe money to 'Look the other way' as it tried to 'insert itself' up Mr. Sanchez pee hole.
These are dark times for us as these ellusive fish have been seen trying to bribe senators in Washington DC to 'Look the other way' as well, an surely attempt at trying to corrupt the Good Ole U.S. of Fuckin' A!!!!
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Lezlie
Rated again 'cuz you said so.
Regarding China's wholesale, massive, and ongoing theft of intellectual property, much of it, as you point out, couldn't happen without the complicity or disinterest of governmental and corporate elements over here, but the fact that some thefts are inside jobs doesn't make thievery as a way of doing business any more respectable. It makes it less so, though it also demonstrates that thievery comes in all shapes and sizes and isn't headquartered in any one national capital. I'm wondering, when and if the United States retreats from the Asian/Pacific rim, if China's neighbors will appreciate the irony of the fact that the Chinese armies and navies which step into the vaccum will have been modernized and made more lethal by US-designed hardware and software.
You are right, too, that a new generation of Chinese are coming into their own. They are going to move at the pace, and in the direction, that seems best to them, and handwringing or bluster isn't going to change that. Ultimately, no matter what the most fanatical proponents of American hegemony want, the world is going to return to how it was before the era of the superpowers, a multi-polar place with, hopefully, a more sane and equitable distribution of resouces. That's if climate change doesn't throw a spanner in everyone's works and send us all back to the dark ages quick as a bunny.
Man that comment took a long time to compose, and I wasn't even nearly done.
Lezlie, that is the way, but as you say, it can be damn challenging. I'm reminded of Colonel Ripper, the guy in Dr. Strangelove who, driven to despair by the supposed Communist plot to fluoridate our water supply, thus sapping us of our precious bodily fluids, launched a nuclear strike on the Soviets which resulted in total armageddon. We need to avoid total armageddon if we can.
Major, thanks for the re-rate, but watch out for Tink's "squirts." I think he's got a candiru catfish lodged in there sideways.
But the U.S. will be one of the top powers for the foreseeable future. It will remain the biggest and most powerful country in North America and it's blessed with a decent climate, an abundance of natural resources and far fewer border problems (only 2 neighbors!) than all but a few countries.
For folks wedded to the "American Exceptionalism" notion, the fact that it will soon lose its pre-eminence will take some getting used to. Expect a few unpleasant episodes during the transition.
Glad to see folks back at the opposite-of-meta (we need a word; granular?) posts.
You’re a slick writer nanatehey but optimistic to the point of foolhardy if you really believe what you have written here
The only thing that really counts in the end in this world is the ability to inflict damage upon your enemy. A little excerpt from Bloomberg news you know the shit they read on Wall Street not the crap they feed to you:
China's multi-role stealth fighter — known as the Chengdu J-20 — made its inaugural flight Jan. 11, revealing dramatic progress in the country's efforts to develop cutting-edge military technologies.
Although the twin-engine J-20 is at least eight or nine years from entering air force inventory, it could become a rival to America's top-of-the-line F-22 Raptor, the successor to the Nighthawk and the only stealth fighter currently in service.
China rolled out the J-20 just days before a visit to Beijing by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, leading some analysts to speculate that the timing was intended to demonstrate the growing might of China's armed forces.
Despite Chinese President Hu Jintao's high-profile visit to the United States this week, many in Washington see China as an economic threat to the U.S. and worry as well about Beijing's military might.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-23/china-s-new-stealth-fighter-may-use-us-technology.html
High, please reincarnate and rate this turkey again, there's nothing in your fridge that takes precedence!
Emma, I get sick of it myself sometimes, and I'm FROM here. Still, as goes the USA, so goes Canada. If we turn into a failed state we're gonna be camping all over the place up there and then what will you do?
Bob, with reggae I don't even need advanced lyrics. I just kinda lose myself in the looping rhythms and textures and generally great vibe and things are better.
VZN, I'll come have a look. And Alternet, I've been reading that a lot lately. I only came across it by chance 'cause I saw Matt Taibbi mention it, but better late than never they say...
You go there, and they're us.
Admittedly much cheaper to get there from down here.
Re. thievery, I shouldn't need to remind you what US Corps have done to South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
I agree we are headed for what you call " ...a multi-polar place with, hopefully, a more sane and equitable distribution of resouces. That's if climate change doesn't throw a spanner in everyone's works and send us all back to the dark ages quick as a bunny."
I do believe that responsibility is China's now, since the rest of us got snowed by carbon-trading scams and schemes. I stop short of saying " It would serve us right, " because this is no longer about nations or their corporations.
From here on in, it's about the planet.
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies -- See them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women!"
There's a certain magnetic quality to that philosophy, but the world doesn't have to be that way, and eventually it won't be. In the meantime, the 7th Fleet still has it's uses. I did mention the new Chinese stealth aircraft somewhere in this thread but it's lost up there now. :(
You're right, Kim, America has a long, hallowed history of thievery, but then the same can be said for most highly successful nations, as success is defined in geopolitical terms. The main difference is that none have ever parlayed it into America's level of power before. Still, it's a fleeting thing, as Ozymandias can tell us. And definitely, the planet needs to start taking first place in everyone's calculations or it's lights out.
Torman, that's true, the interconnectedness of the global economy almost renders any chance of serious conflict between major powers impossible. Almost.
(Sorry, I am vowing to write like a Tudor for a while.)
Renminbi?
Afghanistan, right ? nan I have an idea for the title ( since this second one is just wtf ) :
Sung.
I'll try to answer your question about Japan. This might take a little while. It's not similar to China.
It helps to understand how Japan was organized. Firstly, it's a country without antitrust legislation. Government and industry cooperate heavily. with a revolving door that doesn't have the bad name it does here. Being a conformist society, you can see why - not the same sense of betrayal.
This may sound kind of strange, but Japanese companies travel in packs, called Keiretsu. So, a keiretsu could include an automobile manufacturer, a bank, an insurance company, some parts companies, a construction company, etc. The bigger companies keep the smaller companies in line by coercion (it would take another paragraph to explain this mechanism).
It started with television sets. Japanese companies produced cheap black and white sets for American companies, which they used to fill out the bottom of their lines. Japan didn't have the technology to produce color sets, that is, until American companies started producing a lot of color sets and wanted cheaper ones to fill out their lines, so they gave Japanese companies the technology. For free.
Here's what Japan did with it:
The government forced banks to finance TV set construction by a few companies at favorable interest rates. They specified that a few companies would go into the TV business and refused to allow the importation of any TV sets, so the banks were guaranteed a return on investment; after all, Japan has roughly half the population of the US.
Japanese companies made money because their margins were fixed and high. They developed huge economies of scale because there were so few players and no outside competitors. They developed all this with free American technology. Then, in the seventies, they struck.
They dumped sets in the US. They could afford to sell sets here below cost because they were making money on high margins at home. American TV manufacturers were faced with competitors selling below their cost. There were two theoretical responses:
1. Export to Japan below cost. The trouble was that Japan refused to allow American sets into the country.
2. Appeal to the US government for tariff protection. They didn't get it.
What they did was get out of that business. Within a few year period, we went from seven American-owned TV set manufacturers to zero. Americans assumed we got out-competed when, actually, we got mugged.
Japan was doing a better job of producing quality cars than we were because of Detroit's planned obsolescence. Also, Japan invaded the American market when the 1974 Arab oil embargo hit, so they came in with high-mileage cars exactly when Americans suddenly cared about mileage. What saved Detroit at the time was that the Feds had forced CAFE standards on them, so Detroit was forced over their own objections to create inventory of smaller cars that basically saved their asses when the time came.
Japan started investing in car plants here, but their investment wasn't like when we invest in other countries because of the keiretsu. When we invest, a local construction company builds our plant, a local insurance company insures us, we buy local parts, etc. Japan did none of that. The companies traveled as a group. All that we as a country saw was labor, no profit. Cars came here partially assembled, were completed here with American labor, then sent out, sometimes to Japan, and they were counted in the numbers as American Exports! Japanese companies bought American companies. Technology always went from the US to Japan, never the other way.
What eventually happened was that they speculated too much at home with all that new money and, when the bubble burst, they basically imploded. At that point, they needed to cater more to Japanese consumers than they had previously, so more American-style discounting (sometimes by American companies) was allowed in Japan.
TV's weren't the only industry hit. Americans bought a lot of Fuji film while Japan refused to allow much Kodak film into the country. It happened in a lot of industries.
In short, Japan was at economic war with the US while we were not at war with them. I don't think that the Chinese model is quite as, well, imperialistic. I don't think the Chinese government is sponsoring piracy so much as simply allowing it; stil a problem but a different problem. What's happening in solar panels, on the other hand, is way more similar to how Japan worked. The Chinese are using their domestic market as a carrot to get all sorts of concessions from foreign manufacturers who are, among other things, doing way more of their building in China, giving the Chinese jobs and giving them practice with new crucial technologies. These companies are essentially putting gas into the car that will run them over.
Margaret, that's awful. :( Have you considered seeing a specialist for it? ;-)
Matt, it's a mixed bag here, sort of like chasing shots of tequila with shots of espresso.
Koshersalaami, I was hoping you'd get back with the answer. You're right; what the Japanese did doesn't bear much resemblance to what the Chinese are doing now. That Keiretsu thing is just wild; I'm going to hunt around and see how that system came about. I do remember when the TVs we had were made in America by American companies and then all of a sudden they just...weren't. Poof. Mugging seems like an accurate description, but then the Japanese might ask us how we'd describe Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Of course, war is war and it was a war they initiated, but one can see how they might carry a grudge.
Kim, I'm changing the title forthwith, thank you. And back to a point you raised which I didn't address; people are just people. Absolutely! Even as a non-world-traveller, I've been fortunate enough to meet people from every quarter of the planet who, for one reason or another, have come to this country. It's one of the things I love about being an American. For example, when I was doing construction work near San Diego I worked alongside an Iranian guy. I can't recall his name, it was long ago, but he was about my age and had served in the Iran-Iraq war, had witnessed when the Iranians sent thousands of boys with plastic "keys to heaven" around their necks in human wave attacks against heavily fortified Iraqi positions. He says the Iraqis would sometimes run live current into the marshes so that when the child-s0ldiers came at them they were electrocuted, burned to death even before the Iraqi heavy weaponry opened up. He was a great guy, and very happy to be here.
Trig, the Renminbi is Hyundai's new sedan. It gets great reviews in Car & Driver Magazine.
Zuma, tis more than just jackanapery; foulest arch-varletry and the most vile disphlegmataciousness runneth rampant!
That is the third title change for this post now, if I'm counting correctly. Are you just planning to keep changing the title and this post will become a permanent part of the cover?
How did you do that anyway?
EVERYBODY WHO READS THIS, THAT IS MARGARET FEIKE'S TITLE!!!!
I should get a byline. Beans aren't good enough anymore!!
Maybe you should change that.
Quickly.
I was just kidding about the beans; I already planted them so I can't send them back.
That blank page idea sounds great!
Why don't you post it right now so it can be an EP first thing in the morning?
Don't you think you should get to work on it right now?
This thing's run its course anyway!
If being wrong is the price for liquor and salsa dancing with your self then it's a price I'm prepared to pay, and spel chek bee dammed.
I'd strongly advise you stick with this one. It actually sounds like the title of a spy novel. Or a kung fu movie.
in the long morrow
the day before yesterday
which was Monday here
reaches the river.
The bank is on the other side.
left my card
in the other pair of jeans
anyway.
I understood your point - or rather points, since you made more than one. It is, perhaps, you who has misunderstood my point. I'd have loved to discuss this further with you since I agree with so much of what you wrote.
However I'd not wish to burden you with my "sermonizing".......
Not ever.
Good-bye.
.
Every empire eventually collapses. Ours may be in decline. If so it is likely to be over a span of generations. I believe we can still preserve our civilization. The foremost duty is to break the power of the corporations.
Regarding Japan, there's a book called Trading Places written by a Reagan administration trade negotiator by the name of Clyde Preztowitz. At the time, it was scarier than anything Stephen King ever wrote because it was all real. By the way, I very much doubt it had a whole lot to do with Hiroshima and Nagasaki; I think they just wanted to be rich and powerful and figured out how. I think if the shoe were on the other foot they'd have bombed us in a minute and they know it. They were responsible for both Pearl Harbor and Manchuria in the relatively recent past when the bombs were dropped, neither of which were provoked (Pearl Harbor and Manchuria, not the bombs).
Personally, I love sci-fi, but not the 70's stuff. I always had a hankering for the older, golden age works that focused on atomic power, galatic domination and hot chicks.
"The dismembered limbs of the lobbyists" may be a phrase that in itself is cause for optimism, depending on for whom they're lobbying.
Kim, I Googled those verses and couldn't find them anywhere, not even here.
The ATM beckons
Yet my hedgehog is weary
These shorts I'm wearing
Have begun to chafe
That's a good idea Mr. Fett; I might post some of that stuff.
Sky; OK.
Ma, I have a congenital aversion to redemption and home workout systems, though last summer a friend of the family did try to get me to accept Jesus as my personal savior. I'm still thinking about it.
Eddie, you say "The foremost duty is to break the power of the corporations." Amen brother. And thanks for liking the title; I and my staff put a lot of work into getting that right. :D
Koshersalaami, I too doubt payback for WWII was on their minds. Capitalists, at least the successful ones, don't waste time on anything but making money. I will see if my library has that book.
Doug, so you like Asimov's Foundation series, and Arthur C. Clarke and Heinlein and so forth? I'm a fan too, though I liked the '70s also. Harlan Ellison and a lot of other great authors did some of their best work right around then. There's no one era of sci-fi that I prefer; the only criteria I have, and this goes for other kinds of writing too, and for music and pretty much everything else, is that it be interesting.
means : "Does does anyone here speak English ?"
The verses I put up are extremely rare and hard to trace to their source - probably Sung dynasty ; that was when ATM's were introduced, I think.
What was her name?
"What language is being offered at a lot of schools as a third language?
English?
Seriously, I'm glad in some ways that I'm older, er, make that just "old".
Maybe the U.S. isn't going down the drain as quickly or as deeply as some of those who go around saying "sooth~~sooth" would have us believe.
I have been around long enough to see the country AND THE PEOPLE IN IT decline in ways that have always been important to me.
I was born in 1939 and went to school in the time of actual learning and teaching.
We learned how to read, write, THINK, etc.
All around us we can see the deterioration of these things.
The outside world looks at us as part and parcel of the garbage they see on TV.
They believe that we are all like that.
Some are, some are not.
Many of my friends and I don't watch soap operas, series or any of that garbage. My TV never gets turned on during a weekday. I'm not alone in this butt, much of the outside world doesn't realize this.
Many of us who come to OS learn exponentially more while here than most learn in other ways. We can read, after all.
I believe that the bush bullshit actually has gone a long way to bring down the way the world looks at our country.
The failed wars and the tremendous resultant debt, along with the stupidity of American politics is fairly transparent to the outside world.
I keep saying "outside world". I really do think it's much like that.
The outside world views us one way while too many Americans are only able to think in ways that they are told, if they can think at all.
At least I'm confident that the country will last till I croak.
Hopefully that will be another 10-15 years.
Can you all stand me that long?
My title is for sale to the highest bidder (see above).
Rita, Ablonde, you sound like a couple of Papist idolaters. Not that there's anything wrong with that except for the fact that you're both going to burn in hell for your allegiance to that Antichrist in the Vatican.
XJS, I haven't been around as long as you but even during my lifetime it's been hard not to notice the decline.
I love your title Margaret but they only allow 60 characters. It's yet another example of blatant censorship and of The Man trying to keep us down.
That's the crux.
Linnnn, in so many ways, that is the crux. Any time a discussion of corporate misdeeds takes place there are always those who say "Corporations are important, corporations create jobs" and etc. Those things are true, but they miss the larger point that the interests of corporations have little or nothing to do with the interests of our nation or with our interests as individuals. There used to be some truth to the saying "What's good for GM (meaning, for business generally) is good for America" but those days are long since behind us.
IQ, Catherine did a post yesterday about how the "flag" function has been disabled for Canadians. Hadn't you heard? Though it grieves me to see our northern neighbors so discriminated against, it does seem fitting.
Rita, I have every confidence they'll put this on the cover Monday morning. Emily will have no choice once she sees the new title.
And Margaret, what about a gerbil in a burqa? A hamster in a hijab? Work with me here.
The current title alone is deserving of an EP. As for the content- rated and also deserves an EP.
Nice job, Nana, nice to be thinking a little bit.
why is there an ad right above this box with a really cute kitten (good choice of words, eh?) and little animated hello kitty creatures? but no hamsters, i don't think.
nana, shouldn't you be thinking about going into hiding?
(of course i'm just making that shit up. i have no idea whether plastique smells anything like black powder. i just love that word: plastique. plas - teek - uh. i'm gonna start saying it out of context, even.)
how's the burqa fitting, girl? hot in there?
Candace, the fact that you know plastique doesn't smell like black powder is itself suspicious. It does have a faint bituminous odor but you already knew that, didn't you?
And Candace, I too have always loved the word 'plastique.' I used to dream of having twin girls and naming them Monique and Plastique. Now I'm going to be saying it for the rest of the day...plas-teek. It's hypnotic isn't it. Or is it hypnotique.
Is it weird in here or is it just me.
ha, margaret, trying to slip off into mother/daughter subtext while you're busily crafting shaped charges into the hidden spaces of your burqa.
i confess the only plastique i've ever had in my hands is the ivory-colored earrings that i paid way too much for to the man who swore they *were* ivory. and let me hasten to say this was long before any of us here in the US knew that the stuff we were buying came from elephants that were being murdered for it.
is bituminous anything like diatomaceous? i do have some of that around here somewhere.
Candace, I am going to watch your video again and study it much harder this time. There is something distinctly subversive about you and I'm going to find out what it is....your responses make me feel like I have a heat seeking missile locked onto me and I'm kind of nervous now. As for your bituminous problem, no sweat. I'm sure the biopsy will turn out just fine. And the Diatomaceous Period was a time in history when dinosaurs (only the ones with hands) were beginning to record their language as well as make decorative metal containers, nothing fancy yet, just little cups and things featuring flowers and smiley faces. I am kind of an authority on these things as you can probably tell so feel free to ask me anytime!
"Re-pint. The end is near."
Many went inside and took my advic.e
"distracted by economic difficulties and parasitized by a corporate sector which has no sense of loyalty to the nation that created it..." succintly said, awesome...
We (still the UK) had to 'entertain' the ex-Nazi Pope recently and his Head Hit Man - some Cardinal referred to England as a 3rd World Country - just because most of our churches have been turned into prisons or apartments.
BLoody unfair attitude.
Makes me glad I'm a Lapsed Atheist and Born Again Virgin.
To everyone who took the time to read this post since my last, utterly whorish title change, 谢谢您的評論。
I mean a LOT of people really get into the subject, almost as much as they do for candiru catfish!! ~nodding~
I would assume this would have an EP already and on the Cover with such a title!!!!
And Chinese as well?
AWESOME!!
Throw in some stuff about Mormon sex guides and Justin Bieber and you'd have yourself a career at the Big Salon!!!
We are in bad economic shape, but not for the reasons most people think we are. Also interesting, the inflationary effects of military and state socialism upon prices. (state socialism being when the gvt gives a company a monopoly and they extract high prices from gvt, due to collusion, but this has impact all across economy: ie., healthcare).