Occam's Taser

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Occam's Taser

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Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate [Plurality must never be posited without necessity]

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FEBRUARY 22, 2010 12:05PM

Seeing vs Believing

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"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"
Chico Marx in Duck Soup

It still amazes me that when you show somebody something, show them evidence they can see with their own eyes, they still willfully disbelieve it. You're not only lying, they insist, you're trying to trick them.

Even when you take them behind the scenes, as it were, and show them what's behind the curtain, they still insist there's some trickery.

And when they can't point to any trickery, they resort to name-calling. You're just a bad person, even if they can't point to why, so what you're saying must be patently false.

Recently, Rachel Maddow had Bill Nye ("The Science Guy") on her MSNBC show to help elucidate how a single snow storm does not negate or refute global climate science. (They didn't go into the actual science that describes how that phenomenon is exactly what's supposed to happen in most climate change models - enhanced precipitation, which in normally cold February comes down as snow.) While pointing out that we've had one of the warmest Januaries in 2,000 years, taking the opportunity of a snow storm to mock and belittle Al Gore and suggest the world's climate scientists are part of a mass - and yet secret - conspiracy is, in Nye's words, "unpatriotic."

"Oh no you di-in't!" says the neoconservative  agenda. Suggesting lack of patriotism is their sole purvey, reserved for anyone who questions the reasons for protracted, unpopular and unnecessary wars. Nye was saying that, since science has achieved so many great things for this country (he didn't say it, but bigger bombs is one of them), it was perhaps unpatriotic to question that very science that once made us great.

Some went so far as to suggest that Nye wasn't a "real" scientist himself. If he was so smart, why did he spend his time educating children (on his long-running PBS series) instead of making discoveries of his own? Yes, they said this. That he "had to resort to ad hominem attacks" immediately diminishes his arguments, they say, and therefore his claims are invalid.

Some, like Glenn Beck, went so far on the defensive as to claim they've never, ever, said anything disputing any climate change science. So Bill Nye was unjustified in his "attack."

Yes, you read that right. Glenn Beck insisted he's never, not once, disputed climate change science. Certainly not several times just during the most recent snow storm.

And when Rachel Maddow called him out on his hypocrisy, showing clips of his show where he did, Beck went on the offensive, accusing Maddow's show of editing out key pieces of his show. 

Here's the funny part (or the part that would be funny if it weren't so sad) - while showing clips of Rachel's show (pay close attention now) HE EDITS OUT THE PART OF HER SHOW WHERE SHE PLAYS THE CLIP HE CLAIMS SHE EDITED OUT. He made it obvious, too. Not just a jump-cut, but a swipe transition. He's all, "she cut out the part where I said I didn't say that," but then cuts out the part where she in fact plays that part.

Now this is where I become dumbfounded. Back on Rachel's show, when she tells him, rightly, to "Back off," for calling her a liar, where she plays the full tape of her show, Beck's clip intact (where he claimed to never have denied climate change), then goes on to play a half dozen others where he's in fact said just that, in the face of video evidence that Glenn Beck has edited content to tell lies, pig-headed morons still insist Maddow is deceitful and a liar. 

Go read through a bit of the comments on any discussion of that segment and watch how so many quickly proclaim, "this proves nothing." 

That she's openly lesbian entitles them to call her names (e.g. "dildo diva") and question her integrity as a journalist. Never mind that she has a PhD in political science (ah, yes, the "science" thing again) and Beck and Limbaugh never finished school, she's the one spouting propaganda and hatred to incite division.

Maybe we've seen too many magic tricks.  Maybe we're accustomed to seeing illusions and knowing there's some trick involved, despite what we see.

shadow checker illusion
(The squares marked A and B are the same shade of gray.)

When David Copperfield makes the Statue of Liberty disappear, sure, it looks impressive, and large chunks of the populous are left scratching their heads. The trick is perfectly simple—while "covered," the stage and camera are moved 30 feet to the left. When "revealed," the statue isn't in the camera's line of sight any more. "*Gasp*! It's gone!"

Happened Right Here
(Doug Henning, not David Copperfield)

 Perhaps we've just become accustomed to simple camera tricks—Photoshop modifications to people's faces—that we take nothing at, well, face value. Nothing that doesn't affirm our beliefs, that is. 

 

(Doug Henning image taken from  http://meathaus.com/2008/01/18/doug-henning-magical-image-collection/, from  http://compumagic.com/magic/dh/Collage.html; checker shadow illusion from  http://web.mit.edu/persci/people/adelson/checkershadow_illusion.html  ©1995,  Edward H. Adelson, under fair use license with attribution.) 

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I call it like I see it... of course, I see it like I call it
"But what a fool believes he sees
No wise man has the power to reason away
What seems to be
Is always better than nothing
There's nothing at all"

Michael McDonald, The Doobie Brothers, "What a Fool Believes"
You mean the Statue of Liberty didn't disappear? What next, the tooth fairy.
Absolutely great piece. You actually make sense out of this intricate nonsense.

Know-nothing party, yes. No, nothing! party, that too. Now they add Nuh-uh, nuttin, did not! party as well.
Yet another reason I joined the "Can this dung beetle get more fans than Glenn Beck?" group on Facebook.
Amanda, I like "Can this poodle wearing a tinfoil hat get more fans than Glenn Beck?" http://tinyurl.com/yd9z3gp
personally, I'm a fan of "You're over 30, you can stop typing "lol" now"
http://tinyurl.com/yl55jv3
I guess its not so obvious the scientists don't have to hide the declines in the 1940s and midevil warm period, cook and cherry pick data, and close all the rural and mountain measuring posts in favor of urban ones. The data on global warming is criminally suspect, using 6,000 stations a few years back, now 1,500, mostly in urban areas? In the mid 70s there werer articles in Time NEwsweek and the NY Times on global cooling and coming Ice Age.
Truth is truth; seeing is believing. Seeing the truth, not believing it and saying falsehoods is called mainstream.
Great post, rated.
Anyone who thinks that several industrial ages on multiple continents dependent on fossil fuels, the rise of the automobile and internal combustion in general- all next to de-forestation on a mass scale- if you think these events would have zero effect on the atmosphere that absorbed them and changed with them you are clueless though will probably be first in line to complain your beach-front is now beach-break. Clueless, our Pacific brothers and sisters here are already seeing the rise, it is a new one, nothing we've seen before and we've kept records for thousands of years in Polynesia ... want a clue, for fun? study celestial navigation and see where we get some of this ... truth, they call it ... auwe.
I did not intend this post to be a debate about global warming. I was specifically referencing Glenn Beck's show, where he edited out the piece of Rachel Maddow's show where she played the part of his show he claims she edited out. All to point out that, in the face of direct evidence of this, people still took issue with Maddow, and defended Beck.

Read Malcom Gladwell's book Blink, where he devotes more than one chapter to this phenomenon, where people refuse to see direct evidence of something that refutes what they want to believe.

And as for global climate change, I would not defend the scientific method of any particular scientist. I would only point out what I can see with my own two eyes. I'm going outside in t-shirts in January. There's no snow for the winter Olympics. There are more violent and more frequent storms now than in my memory. Villages built upon permafrost for hundreds of years are now melting. Look at photographs of glaciers that have been in existence for thousands of years, and notice in the past 30-40 years how they've changed. Flowers are blooming March. It still snows in April. This did not happen previously in my lifetime.

"Climates change over time," you say, and you'd be right. We have evidence of how much and over how long, going back tens of millions of years. The current cycle represents a radical break from previous patterns. Correlation does not always equal causation, but this appears to be more than statistical coincidence.

Either human culture is causing it, and we can possibly do something about it, or choose to do nothing and suffer the consequences; or human culture is having no effect on climate, in which case there's every reason to believe its existence on this planet is in peril. So given three likely scenarios, two result in mass extinction, one, where we attempt to modify our behavior, could save our civilization, I know which one I'm more likely to try. The worst that happens is we have cleaner air and cleaner water for the short time we have left.
Said it before, I'll say it again, as much as I hate to say it. Religion teaches people that belief is proof, so they take their belief about anything and everything as proof. More people in this country believe in resurrection than evolution despite the fact there is NO proof of one and millions of bits of proof for the other.

Can I get an amen?!
I like this. Are you a Fransiscan? It would appear so. :-). And you know, Papa Bene is a definate validator of Global Warming. I felt so sad, personally, when the Sierra Club got mad because he didn't like Avatar. How many 80-something German men do YOU think liked that movie? He said it was "boring" not heritical. Alas, I do digress. Thanks for a nice post. I faved you. R.
Patty, could it be that he didn't care for it because, as a friend pointed out to me today, the name the blue people had for themselves is the Hebrew word for "prophet?"