It happened again today.
Appearing with top-billing over Ron Paul on Meet The Press, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton said she's "out of politics."
And I believe her.
Hillary has been in the news a lot this past month.
You'd expect that in conjunction with news of Khaddafi's death and the scheduled US pullout from Iraq.
But curious were earlier stories on her chances of issuing a primary challenge to Obama and/or a possible VP slot for Obama's next term.
Call me nuts, but I believe Hillary still wants very much to be President.
What piqued my suspicious nature was her “below zero” answer to CNN's Alison Kosik when queried on the likelihood she will challenge Obama.
An intriguing choice of words.
And the Clintons are very-y-y-y good with them.
So what does it mean when likelihoods are below zero?
I Googled “negative odds wagering,” and voila:
Betting odds on favorites are often expressed as negative numbers.
Again, feel free to call me nuts.
But read on.
If Hillary does want to be President, winning the general election might be the easy part.
She faces two other very large obstacles, however.
1) Time isn't on her side. Waiting until 2016 makes Hillary 69 on Election Day (7 months younger than Mitt Romney).
The 2012 election would be a better fit.
Hillary will be 65.
2) History has not been kind to those who challenge sitting Presidents from within their own party.
(Witness Theodores Kennedy and Roosevelt, vs Carter and Taft, respectively, among other examples.)
So we see Hillary keeping a high profile, but otherwise biding her time for now.
And, following a trail of circumstantial evidence, I'm still nuts.
It's ok, you can say it.
Just keep reading.
Next, consider the following:
—The strongest part of Obama’s presidency has been foreign policy.
Even the Repubs grudingly give him credit for offing Bin Laden.
Mubarak and Khadafi are removed from power and we're "leaving" Iraq.
Every time Obama scores a foreign policy victory, Hillary’s stock rises as well.
—The weakest part of Obama’s term is the economy.
But you can’t blame Hillary for anything here at home.
As Secty of State, she’s been perfectly positioned these past 3 years.
—Inflation is still tame, but it doubled this year.
Food & energy up especially and that’s not even being counted in the CPI.
If inflation leaps again in 2012, it’ll gin up the Jimmy Carter comparisons.
(The “Misery Index” (highest in 28 years) was dusted off by the Mainstream Media in a story just last week.)
—Somebody wisely asked “How can we have a double-dip recession when we’re still in the first one?”
While technically incorrect (a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), many still fear the double-dip.
Unlikely, but a distinct and growing possibility for next year.
—And, of course, unemployment trumps all.
If that’s back up to 10% or higher, the discontent from within the Democratic Party could rise to the level that somebody places a 3am call to Hillary.
Perhaps even Obama himself if things get bad enough.
Hillary knows she can't win by directly challenging Obama.
She can never be seen as trying to unseat or torpedo him.
Rather, she'll need to be asked.
Then it'll be Hillary to the rescue, galloping in from afar upon a white stallion (Bill?) to save both Party and Country.
That all could happen if things keep spiraling downward.
Don't get me wrong, I voted for Obama in 2008.
And I’m not rooting for any of this; I'd STILL like for Obama to work something out with Congress that fixes our economy.
I neither like nor trust Hillary and she wouldn't make a good President.
Bottom line: Hillary bears watching. Always.
So call me nuts, but keep watching...