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old new lefty

old new lefty
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CEO
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virgin novelist, middle school teacher for the morally handicapped, government bureaucrat, most famous unknown photographer in LA, PhD dropout, coat hanger sorter, presidential campaign worker, sewer worker, and retired guy -- but not in that order.

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OCTOBER 14, 2011 7:39AM

Obama's Wag the Dog?

Rate: 10 Flag

The case of Mansour Arbabsian, the used car dealer who allegedly tried to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al Jaberin gets curiouser and curiouser.  When it was first announced by President Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder, incontrovertible evidence was supposedly introduced linking Iran's top Quds force operatives to a bizarre plot involving Zetas of the Mexican drug cartel.  The whole thing sounded like something taken straight from a Tom Clancey novel.  More importantly, this was supposedly a sign that the Iranian regime was even more dangerous and unstable than before.  All of this called for a substantially higher level of tension between the two countries.

And yet, conversations with seasoned American intelligence experts demonstrate profound skepticism as to whether such an event really took place. Here's why.  The Iranian Qud force models itself closely on the operational techniques of the Israeli Mossad.  As a traditional cloak and dagger outfit, the Quds is much like Larry the Cable Guy. Everyone in the business has a "Git 'er done!" mentality.

A standard wet job (assassination) takes place in the following order:

The target is identified.  He is tailed to establish a basis for his routine. Particular locations are identified that are weak security spots. A plan for execution is worked on in matters of timing and manner, etc. with review by higher authorities. And then it's implemented.

With information from a Texas informant who dodged state criminal action by turning into a paid DEA informant, Arbabsian supposedly initiated contact with Quds, and someone from the Mexican Zeta drug cartel was supposedly enlisted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador at his favorite restaurant in Washington, DC.

This plan completely fails the Occam's Razor test for intelligence operations.  Why would Quds feel compelled to make use of some militarily trained hit men for the Mexican cartel -- people who are demonstrably tempermental and uncontrollable? After all, remember Larry the Cable Guy. 

And it fails the foreign policy test.  The Saudi ambassador to the USA is no more of a concern to the Iranians than any other Saudi official.  If the Iranians were that intent on making some kind of political statement, there are literally thousands of targets available much closer to home.  Why in hell would a fifth rate power like Iran want to piss off Uncle Sam so much for no good reason?

There's no doubt that Arbabsian probably fits the profile of a terrorist.  Think of Mohamed Osman Mohamed, the Portland Al Queda Christmas bomber recently convicted. The profiles for people like these are deeply disgruntled loners with marginal personality disorders and a profound hatred of the United States.  However, in the case of Mohamed and Jose Padilla, and God knows how many other misfits there is a commonality that has not been paid much attention to by the  press.

Thanks to the steady erosion of Constitutional rights over the last twenty years or more, the concept of due process has gotten much fuzzier.  And it's become much easier to perform government entrapment than before by a wide margin.

When the total evidence against Mohamed came out in the Oregon press, it was revealed the he was in fact a star in a one man play completely funded by government expense at great cost.  Mohamded was literally surrounded by a bubble of government agents pretending to play specific roles.  There wasn't just one FBI agent.  An entire infrastructure had to be constructed around the criminal suspects to give the bubble that flavor of reality.

We can bemoan the loss of civil liberties in this country, but we have to dig deeper to reveal some of the American blind spots in the whole world of terrorism.  This blind spot applies not only to real terrorists like the 9/11 perps, but to stupid dupes like Mohamed and Arbabsian.  And that is, that hatred of America is based in fact -- on American foreign policy crimes.

When any objective view is given to the treatment of the general Palestinian population in Israel for one out of many examples, we are telegraphing that America is complicit in committing major crimes  -- not only in Israel but all over the Middle East.  Friends and relatives of real people are being killed by drones or artillery fire or other means of military violence.  This is called our foreign policy.

And President Obama appears to have wanted to court the neoconservative, militarist elements within Washington, DC to curry their favor.  And these new sanctions against Iran are a put up job.  And all of this is a sign of Obama's weakness and insecurity as to what he thinks is his ability to retain his position in the next election.

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Seems everybody has a lie they want to sell - but the biggest lie of all is believing there are no consequnces for that. Die world, die!
I had to ReLAUNCH Three times.
Honest.
Why?
Lie?
Reap/Sow.
Kerry\Crap.
I curse/Snoop.
I smile\too. Oho!
the 30 billion pre 911 ? 3x now? and a good chunk of the 8% oil cash and a good chunk of the 8% drug business - thats a lot of green floating around - 16% of the global economy depending on black ops to create and maintain the fog of war required to keep us from knowing what we already know - money not only makes the world go, it keeps the quo in status quo! (keeping eye out for hit team)
When the total evidence against Mohamed came out in the Oregon press, it was revealed the he was in fact a star in a one man play completely funded by government expense at great cost. Mohamded was literally surrounded by a bubble of government agents pretending to play specific roles. There wasn't just one FBI agent. An entire infrastructure had to be constructed around the criminal suspects to give the bubble that flavor of reality.

QUESTION: If he was just a star in a one man play, why all the “scenery?” Did they think this one guy…this one not especially intelligent guy…was going to be able to figure out the scheme if they did not build up the background to the proportions they did?
Great question, Frank. The fact of the matter is with most "terrorists" like Mohammed is that they're horrible on implementing their schemes. They may fixate for years on how horrible The Great Satan is, but it takes a cast of FBI agents to make their fantasies appear real. And don't forget. The poor schmucks that get sent up the river for life are even more paranoid than onl, and I know how paranoid I am!
I get you, ONL.

I’ve been going through a painful transformation recently.

I have begun to doubt that democracy works…or even that it CAN WORK.

I am beginning doubt that all the freedoms we want and treasure truly can exist in the complicated world in which we live—and still have a society that functions reasonably.

I am beginning to doubt the value in some of those freedoms—particularly since so many of us abuse our personal freedom to the point where each of us worries more about our individual freedoms than we do about the greater good of society.

It is a complicated mess with me right now—and I am working hard to get it straight in my own mind so that I can put it down on paper to offer it up for discussion.

Suffice here to say that some of the trouble we face right now (perhaps MANY of the troubles we face) may have more to do with our fixation on having all these freedoms…than with government or how it works. WE may be our own worst enemy.

Complicated shit…I may never get it set enough in mind to commit to paper. Although it may not seem so, my response to your post was part of that process.

We’ll see how things go.

Thanks for the response.
This whole story, has sounded fishy to me from the start. Sounds like Obamas' version of "WMD's"!
I also wonder, why would anyone in their right mind go hiking on the border between Iraq and Iran? That story too, just doesn't sound right!
the politicians are corrupt, because the voters are chumps because the school are useless because the politicians are corrupt.

stop voting for politicians, start voting for democracy. or continue living as ignorant cattle and complaining about the quality of the cowboys...
I recently bought a book titled"Psychologie des Terrors"by Wolfgand Schmidbauer.I am not sure if it is available in English.I could not find it at Amazon.The subtitle is "Warum junge Männer zu Attentätern werden"
(Psychology of Terror;why young men turn into assassins)
W.S.is a well known psychtherapist and a recognized specialist.
ONL;as always:I like your posts and your smart brain.
Frank,it's nice to find you here.I'll be interested in your book.
Well played, Lefty; great catch. I think so too, let's wait and see. R
I've been wondering about this story because a few details don't make much sense, like Why? Also, it has been theorized that this was an attempt to get the news cycle off the Wall Street protests. That hasn't worked - as a result of the near eviction from the park, the NY protest was the lead story on this morning's Today Show.

As to Israeli treatment of the Palestinians, that's more relevant as a catalyst for Muslim reactions in the Middle East than it is as major criminal activity in any objective sense. Few if any of the national actors in the region haven't been worse to their own minorities over time, typically with a lot less provocation.
It's hard to know what to make of this case. It does seem implausible that Iran would deploy such a loopy process to assassinate one Saudi ambassador. Though as Hillary Clinton said, who would make up a story like this? If they have Arbabsian on tape negotiating the murder, then what? Rogue element in the Qud?